After hitting the important $65000 benchmark, BTC has been naturally pulling back on a combination of profit-taking and overbought technical exhaustion. I found a sequence that is quite interesting and may indicate where this pull-back may bottom out.
** The -8% less progression ** First of all, as you see it is standing since the January 08 High so essentially it has been in effect for the whole 2021 so far. That makes it technically reliable.
- As you see the January 08 correction (1st) bottomed on Jan 22 at around $28800. That was roughly a -31.50% correction. - The February 21 correction (2nd) bottomed on Feb 28 around $42900. That was roughly a -26.50% correction. Approximately 8% less than the previous correction. - The March 13 correction (3rd) bottomed on March 25 around $50300. That was roughly a -18.50% correction. Approximately 8% less than the previous correction.
Based on that progression, the (current) April 14 correction (4th) should bottom at 8% less than the previous (-18.50%), hence that's approximately around -10.50%. That is roughly at $58000.
** The 4H MA300/ MA200 taking turns ** That estimated bottom is in line with another interesting sequence. As you see on the chart (4H time-frame), the 1st correction (Jan 08) hit exactly the 4H MA300 (red trend-line) before it starting rising again. The 2nd correction (Feb 21) hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the 3rd correction hit again the 4H MA300 before it started rising. It would appear that the bottoms take turns between the MA300 and MA200 on the 4H chart. Based on that, then the current (4th) correction could bottom on the 4H MA200. That matches exactly the projected -10.50% drop according to the -8% less progression.
What do you think? Are those progression that accurated to be trusted and if so, will Bitcoin hit $58000 and rebound? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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This is typical rising wedge pattern. The correction become lesser and lesser percentage wise but at some point, there is no more fuel left to run upwards and that's when the big dump commences. It's only a matter of time now.
watchtrend
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@nginx, he did nice explain, the best increase we expect for long next time are algo since NFt huge invest
@crypto008 price must go down in order to go up. Just Bc analysis and price movement is down, does not indicate weakness or that BTC won’t make another ATH. The only way BTC has ever produced an ATH is by going lower, gaining investment (volume) then increasing to a new ATH. Hence fear and greed index, buy when fear is high. Just a reminder hodl. Make Money. Happy investing.
prefabsprout
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@crypto008, thinking the miners will ever be anything other than short-sighted would be a mistake. they are in it for the instant profits, not to co-invest with you lol.
Stox2blox
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@prefabsprout, what you are suggesting has certainly always been the case. Michael Saylor recently suggested or even implied that miners would start to hodl their new btc and use it as collateral to receive loans for cash. Possibly only selling enough btc to pay off debt. As long as the price of bitcoin rises more than interest rates his hypothesis could hold water, imo. What do you think?
prefabsprout
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@Stox2blox, that would be the wise thing to do, but something tells me they aren't necessarily thinking strategically and will just keep doing a money-grab. purely guesswork here tho.
metaloph1l
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@crypto008, I've heard that alot. People seem to think it's a bullish sign when miners are not selling. I disagree. In my opinion, it'd be a bullish sign if price were to rise regardless of the miner's activites (high volumes being sold), just like in Janauary-Mid Februrary of this year. The 1000's of btc they've piled up won't stay in their wallets forever and could be dumped on us any time now. Considering the low trading volume, that would have more impact than in previous months. And the longer they don't sell, the more impact they're gonna have when they eventually do.
UnknownUnicorn13342055
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@crypto008, btc lost 20% mining power last couple of days...