But we have all seen of course what happened, it failed almost completely. There was room towards 6550 to still remain strong, but even that was too much to ask from the bulls. All of this is simply a sign of weakness! From the highs i could see continues spoofing of sell orders on Bitfinex, all the way to the 6400 low and even the past few hours i am still seeing it. Problem with Spoofing is, it's very difficult to judge WHY they do it. Usually they do it push people into their buy or sell orders. But since they started doing it from the 6600/6700 down to 6400, it could be they just simply want to push the price down. For the ones who don't know what spoofing is, people putting in buy or sell walls to scare traders into panic selling or buying. But once a trader with courage buys/sells into those orders they disappear faster than you can blink your eyes. These things are very illegal in all the markets, expect in crypto since they are not regulated, so welcome to crypto. Whales have been doing this for year by the way. The past 24 hours, you keep seeing those sell walls of around 85 btc , those are fake ones. We also see them allot on Bitmex, it's usually best to ignore all of them because they produce different outcomes many times.
Back to TA, on the right, we see a very worrying picture, something i mentioned a few weeks ago. Look at the blue circles, where we can see the market is not even able to reach the resistance line of the triangle. This is a very weak and bad signs, this shows there are simply not enough buyers willing to get in and attack the resistance. After the drop from 7400 down i mentioned that it was a bad sign, but i was not sure if the triangle was the big on or the blue lines as you can see in the chart on the left. Since we made that drop yesterday, showing even more weakness, lowering that triangle even more, makes things even worse! Only positive note here, we can still make a higher low if the bulls are willing to buy again. So it's not game over yet for the bulls. But if we do break the current low around 6400, the support around has to hold around 6300. Below 6300 there are still some support levels, but i doubt if they will push the market back up. We need to see a trend of higher lows in this weak market, so a retest of 6100 will probably fail.
Having said this, based on those lower highs inside the triangle, we really have to assume, that if the 6000/6300 breaks, we will probably see a very big panic dumb. And no way to know how deep it can go. It will probably be a very fast, big and high dump. In my analysis from 21 Sept, i mentioned the 6800 level was THE level to break when we were still around the 6500. The 6800 has been a KEY level for many times now the past few months. Because of the facts i mentioned in the beginning, it looked really good before we broke the 6700 and the 6600. So i really thought there was a good chance to break that weakening pattern of lower high as you can see in the chart on the right.
For now it's sitting and waiting. Levels for the bulls to break are 6480/6500, the 6600 and the 6660 i kept mentioning yesterday and the 6700/6730 will probably be the last level for the bulls to break to start a rally into the 7K's and maybe even higher. If we can't get above the 6500 within a day or 2, chances will be very big that the scenario will play out.
Anyway, still can't say what the game plan is, they since we are still around the 6400, i would say their goal is NOT to push it down. I am used to spoofing on Bitfinex from earlier this year, but not the past few months. If you think you have the answer, please share.
Alts are slowly turning up, a view like XRP and ADA are make good jumps up again as well. Looks like that small down trend channel broke, but no volume move up yet. The levels to break for now is 6450 and 6500.
It has the shape of a small inverse H&S as well, but then it needs to stay above the 6420ish. Because we don't see any fast moves with volume, it's more likely to become a big bear flag now. Really needs to show some strength. A move above 6500 would be a first step to fight off that bear flag. Alts in general are weak now as well, many showing bear flags. So bears are a bit in favor now.
For the bears, so far still only a lower high again. A break of 6300 would mean the lower high is confirmed
For the first time in a very long time i see a big buy order of 5/6 mil put in and staying there. On the other side (sell side) i see some big orders as well, but those 2 5 mil sell orders are fake spoof orders as usual again.
So this doesn't say allot, but probably tells us a decent move is ahead the coming hours. Depending of who will win this fight
At the moment the bulls need to keep it above the 6650ish to create a good solid bull flag and need to push up again within a few hours. But strangely enough, the alts are not really following. Still no confidence there.
On this chart
There are gaps one hour chart 6360 and gap 15 minute chart around 5900 . Can we consider 15 minute time frames and 1 hour time frames as gaps that need to be filled ? Most traders look at 4 hours