Displayed are only 90 random walks that represent a distribution table for Bitcoin projecting values up to $50,000. Given that the value of bitcoin is dependant on adoption, some random walks result in values below zero dollars and represent a realistic likelihood of Bitcoin becoming a worthless asset. Despite this possibility, most values are above the current trading price and will eventuate to a median that sits above $50,000.
Monte Carlo methods retrieve variables from data that represent characteristics of Bitcoin that would otherwise be impossible to visualise. Most quantitative techniques project a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
The plotted projection factors time as a key element and determines a value larger than $50,000 by May 2019.
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You can see this model again below with 375 random walks:
I dont understand why youre saying it is bullish now? There is just the same amount of possible routes for it to fall down, as much as for it to go up. Could you explain? It would be obvious to assume that there might be a bigger possibility for it to go up, in case if there was a big ratio of up-trend walks instead of down-trend walks. But as far as it looks, the ratio in borth directions is almost the same.
Andbcoin
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Wow! I really like it! So beautiful! But I disagree with you. Sorry ;)
Interesting idea but I don't see how is this predictive? All paths end at at current time. Also you didn't constrain your lower bounds and allowed prices to turn negative - but quite possibly there are natural constraints to upper bounds which aren't independent of adoption.
GrantPeace
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Negative values might as well end at zero. I can't think of any upper constraints.