I already posted about this but it is important. Waited too long to miss it. Better post too much than not enough. All this posting helps me not forget about it.
I do not even care about the noise anymore. All eyes on the important level. And that is $1300-$1900.
I do not know who is watching this (whales in particular), maybe some greedy billionaire will buy early (like $5600-5800 got overcut on finex & a rich person bought at $6000 - he lost his money now btw <Carlos Matos Bitconnect laugh>).
Maybe $1600 will be overcut so this is why I have this area going up to $1900. Maybe 2000 but I do not think so.
Also, maybe selling will be so intense we go way below that area in a flash crash.
Small exchanges... A few will probably have the price falling to double digits. I am counting on it on Kraken.
I waited for this a long time. 5 years? Or 2 years. Depends how I see it. Really do not care about all the noise, whether we will go to 3800 before 3000 or what. Pretty sure we fall in this buy area before the end of next month, but not going to hold my breath.
Now, I will scale in. I will have order at 3 2 and even 1 digit, ready in advance. But as to for the 1300-1900 area, the way I scale will depend how we get there. If there is massive selling on the loss of $3000 and then it slows down I maybe put some more bulk up, if it flashes with no slowdown I maybe have my bigger orders lower. Might be wrong, in any case I'll have a limit buy every $50 or $100.
Here the example of slowdown / bottoming with CL
Sugar:
Silver:
Gosh I am trying to find an example of the price not slowing down & instant bouncing to show it goes far... Going to have to go to my backtesting excels, sec.
Dow Jones slowdown 2008:
No slowdown examples:
I saw so many people get greedy in this ponzi and all in early then get destroyed... Maybe this time people overcut it again then get stop lossed and so the price slides way further than "expected".
Well anyway, I think here it is necessary to scale in and well know what you are doing. Otherwise only trade it the "regular way" if it slows down...
For investing in Bitcoin, maybe wait for the bottom to be in, but I think Bitcoin will never go 20k again, so cannot advice it.
This is what I think will happen:
Whatever happens I am almost sure the volatility will drop hard & it will get less interesting. Should not be totally dead, gold has still been offering opportunities since the bubble popped, Bitcoin should be something similar. Just no 10 billion volume... What was the vol in 2018? 5 billion? According to Satoshi Capital Research the daily volume in 2018 was 9 billion daily. Is this counting Korean exchanges? Let's say 10b.
Back in the days the trading volume went up but it was so small...
Let's look at a few examples...
Volume does not change that much even when volatility drops. Not like it dies and cannot be traded.
Another thing. Unless I am mistaken, altcoins daily volume in 2018 in total was 20 billion usd a day.
The thing with crypto is, is it useful? 10 years and we are still waiting for practical uses. The volume will be 0 at some point if it does nothing, logically.
I hope not. The awesome thing with crypto is it gives us traders/investors one more uncorrelated asset to play with. Here is the list:
All the assets by volume:
* Forex. There is a good 50 BIG pairs, but there are all quite reliant on how the USD moves. At least a little, if the usd crashes it will impact every thing. EURUSD biggest one with 1 Trillion daily volume.
* Stocks. Indices or individual stocks. The biggest one is the S&P 500. I like the Dow Jone personally, it is pretty important too. There are so many, but they are all quite correlated. Volume of hundred of billions.
* Metals. Big one is Gold. CME volume alone is 20 or 30 billion, but it is traded alot on OTC market, total is much bigger.
* Energy. The big one is Oil, trading the rest is possible, but it often is correlated. Trading Oil alone could be enough, to not have too much exposure. Oil volume on CME is around 35 billion, Natgas 5 bil.
* Crypto. Big one is Bitcoin with 9-10 bil volume, note it is open on weekends, total volume is around 30 bil. When Bitcoin is red alts are all red...
* Agriculture futures. Biggest one is Soybeans with 5B daily volume, then add Corn (2B) Wheat(1B) and the rest is on ICE with volumes between 300 and 900M (not counting Orange Juice and all that stuff that has volumes below 50M). Total is about 10 billion a day.
*** Bonus: bonds. No idea how that works. Correlated to stock market right? Might be interesting might not.
So without crypto there are 5 different assets to trade (FX/EURUSD, Stocks/SP500, Metals/Gold, Energy/Oil, Agriculture/Soybeans).
Crypto increases that by 20%. Less risk, more profit! Best portfolio in the world has 16.66% of each asset, just imagine.
You never get bored. Sure each asset has plenty of elements in it, but it is just nice to have 6 groups that are not correlated to each other (no gold is not inverse correlated to stocks).
Maybe I should change my watchlist to something like this:
EURUSD
S&P500
Gold
Oil
Bitcoin
Soybeans (I know, it does not sound as cool as tech stocks or blockchain, puh boring agriculture who cares)
And I do not do treasury bill even thought they are big (500 billion daily volume btw) I just do not really know how they work and prefer to focus on the rest which is already alot, and the latest asset is real estate but ... can you even trade that?
Is that not awesome? Keeping an eye on every group. Being very macro. Some people prefer the details, but I love macro. It clears the mind so much.
You will make much less mistakes if you are not married to one asset also.
Follow my suggestion, keep it simple, clear, everything organised. It helps tremendously. And when Bitcoin runs in circles (or barts) rather than get gutted by the noise you look elsewhere ;)
Retail traders doing this on their own aka with no infrastructure really need this I think... Maybe 6 is alot for some, best to keep it at 2-3, but more than 1. Sure you might look at 50 different stocks but what if nothing happens? Plus if you go all in 1 asset and there is a crash? RIP (well depends your strategy, now I work a bit more like a hedge fund so maybe I see things differently and for me the more diversification the better well not if there were 100, 100 positions at the same time lol noway).
I was making a global idea every week in mid 2018. Should I make a weekly or bi-weekly or monthly macro idea where I cover all 6 groups?
Lmao writing this idea helped me so much getting clarity. Do I still need to publish it? Oh ok here go.
Annex - How Bitcoin average price is calculated
I do not even care about the noise anymore. All eyes on the important level. And that is $1300-$1900.
I do not know who is watching this (whales in particular), maybe some greedy billionaire will buy early (like $5600-5800 got overcut on finex & a rich person bought at $6000 - he lost his money now btw <Carlos Matos Bitconnect laugh>).
Maybe $1600 will be overcut so this is why I have this area going up to $1900. Maybe 2000 but I do not think so.
Also, maybe selling will be so intense we go way below that area in a flash crash.
Small exchanges... A few will probably have the price falling to double digits. I am counting on it on Kraken.
I waited for this a long time. 5 years? Or 2 years. Depends how I see it. Really do not care about all the noise, whether we will go to 3800 before 3000 or what. Pretty sure we fall in this buy area before the end of next month, but not going to hold my breath.
Now, I will scale in. I will have order at 3 2 and even 1 digit, ready in advance. But as to for the 1300-1900 area, the way I scale will depend how we get there. If there is massive selling on the loss of $3000 and then it slows down I maybe put some more bulk up, if it flashes with no slowdown I maybe have my bigger orders lower. Might be wrong, in any case I'll have a limit buy every $50 or $100.
Here the example of slowdown / bottoming with CL
Sugar:
Silver:
Gosh I am trying to find an example of the price not slowing down & instant bouncing to show it goes far... Going to have to go to my backtesting excels, sec.
Dow Jones slowdown 2008:
No slowdown examples:
Well anyway, I think here it is necessary to scale in and well know what you are doing. Otherwise only trade it the "regular way" if it slows down...
For investing in Bitcoin, maybe wait for the bottom to be in, but I think Bitcoin will never go 20k again, so cannot advice it.
This is what I think will happen:
Whatever happens I am almost sure the volatility will drop hard & it will get less interesting. Should not be totally dead, gold has still been offering opportunities since the bubble popped, Bitcoin should be something similar. Just no 10 billion volume... What was the vol in 2018? 5 billion? According to Satoshi Capital Research the daily volume in 2018 was 9 billion daily. Is this counting Korean exchanges? Let's say 10b.
Back in the days the trading volume went up but it was so small...
Let's look at a few examples...
Volume does not change that much even when volatility drops. Not like it dies and cannot be traded.
Another thing. Unless I am mistaken, altcoins daily volume in 2018 in total was 20 billion usd a day.
The thing with crypto is, is it useful? 10 years and we are still waiting for practical uses. The volume will be 0 at some point if it does nothing, logically.
I hope not. The awesome thing with crypto is it gives us traders/investors one more uncorrelated asset to play with. Here is the list:
All the assets by volume:
* Forex. There is a good 50 BIG pairs, but there are all quite reliant on how the USD moves. At least a little, if the usd crashes it will impact every thing. EURUSD biggest one with 1 Trillion daily volume.
* Stocks. Indices or individual stocks. The biggest one is the S&P 500. I like the Dow Jone personally, it is pretty important too. There are so many, but they are all quite correlated. Volume of hundred of billions.
* Metals. Big one is Gold. CME volume alone is 20 or 30 billion, but it is traded alot on OTC market, total is much bigger.
* Energy. The big one is Oil, trading the rest is possible, but it often is correlated. Trading Oil alone could be enough, to not have too much exposure. Oil volume on CME is around 35 billion, Natgas 5 bil.
* Crypto. Big one is Bitcoin with 9-10 bil volume, note it is open on weekends, total volume is around 30 bil. When Bitcoin is red alts are all red...
* Agriculture futures. Biggest one is Soybeans with 5B daily volume, then add Corn (2B) Wheat(1B) and the rest is on ICE with volumes between 300 and 900M (not counting Orange Juice and all that stuff that has volumes below 50M). Total is about 10 billion a day.
*** Bonus: bonds. No idea how that works. Correlated to stock market right? Might be interesting might not.
So without crypto there are 5 different assets to trade (FX/EURUSD, Stocks/SP500, Metals/Gold, Energy/Oil, Agriculture/Soybeans).
Crypto increases that by 20%. Less risk, more profit! Best portfolio in the world has 16.66% of each asset, just imagine.
You never get bored. Sure each asset has plenty of elements in it, but it is just nice to have 6 groups that are not correlated to each other (no gold is not inverse correlated to stocks).
Maybe I should change my watchlist to something like this:
EURUSD
S&P500
Gold
Oil
Bitcoin
Soybeans (I know, it does not sound as cool as tech stocks or blockchain, puh boring agriculture who cares)
And I do not do treasury bill even thought they are big (500 billion daily volume btw) I just do not really know how they work and prefer to focus on the rest which is already alot, and the latest asset is real estate but ... can you even trade that?
Is that not awesome? Keeping an eye on every group. Being very macro. Some people prefer the details, but I love macro. It clears the mind so much.
You will make much less mistakes if you are not married to one asset also.
Follow my suggestion, keep it simple, clear, everything organised. It helps tremendously. And when Bitcoin runs in circles (or barts) rather than get gutted by the noise you look elsewhere ;)
Retail traders doing this on their own aka with no infrastructure really need this I think... Maybe 6 is alot for some, best to keep it at 2-3, but more than 1. Sure you might look at 50 different stocks but what if nothing happens? Plus if you go all in 1 asset and there is a crash? RIP (well depends your strategy, now I work a bit more like a hedge fund so maybe I see things differently and for me the more diversification the better well not if there were 100, 100 positions at the same time lol noway).
I was making a global idea every week in mid 2018. Should I make a weekly or bi-weekly or monthly macro idea where I cover all 6 groups?
Lmao writing this idea helped me so much getting clarity. Do I still need to publish it? Oh ok here go.
Annex - How Bitcoin average price is calculated
Trade active:
Short on Bitcoin. Really not big. Just protecting the coin I have on bmex waiting to long next dip & might as well make a little profit when the price eventually falls.
I made this drawing of the Bitcoin video game with every level :p
Fun game, I wonder when we find the final boss and he destroys every one?
I made this drawing of the Bitcoin video game with every level :p
Fun game, I wonder when we find the final boss and he destroys every one?
Comment:
Member the Litecoin bulls? I member.
I CANNOT LOOK AT THIS CHART WITHOUT CRACKING UP.
I CANNOT LOOK AT THIS CHART WITHOUT CRACKING UP.
Comment:
Imagine Bitcoin being THIS OBVIOUS
Going to wildly speculate that the flatening ends soon.
Also I dreamt BTC crashed and I made money, gotta mean something :p