Hi guys,
Pretty sure I was wrong about the larger diametric. I think this makes more sense overall, we are probably in an X-Wave, and this is potentially Wave-4 of the first leg of the X-wave. Should head near the high of the run again, then head downwards for a while for Wave-C of Wave-4 (see chart). I will include a larger picture of what I think potentially may be happening for BTC, but I doubt this is the bullrun still, and still guessing at 2022 for the final end of the correction.
This is forecasting pretty far into the future, and there are a lot of potential pitfalls and conditions here, so I'll have to adjust as the chart plays out. But as for now, I think this is one reasonable interpretation of what's going on.
Pretty sure I was wrong about the larger diametric. I think this makes more sense overall, we are probably in an X-Wave, and this is potentially Wave-4 of the first leg of the X-wave. Should head near the high of the run again, then head downwards for a while for Wave-C of Wave-4 (see chart). I will include a larger picture of what I think potentially may be happening for BTC, but I doubt this is the bullrun still, and still guessing at 2022 for the final end of the correction.
This is forecasting pretty far into the future, and there are a lot of potential pitfalls and conditions here, so I'll have to adjust as the chart plays out. But as for now, I think this is one reasonable interpretation of what's going on.
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Bigger picture, potentially
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A big factor in my deciding that the diametric wouldn't play out is stoch RSI being bottomed right now from 1h-1d, there should be another move up at least.... however the weekly is maxed, so I don't expect the uptrend to continue much longer.
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I think I jumped the gun a bit and there is one more wave down for wave-c, My apologies, the time is just too short for wave- c to be done.
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Wave-C of wave-B I mean, not a major down, but potentially further... We will see if it breaks 10700 (0-B trendline inside of Wave-B) or not.
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and by 10700, I mean 11700... wish you could edit updates.
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Thanks for pointing that out, this is probably a bit more sensible for Wave-C as an upper end of time, could be 1/2 this also.
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This is what we need to accomplish to be bullish, and not have more downside here, need to break the dashed yellow line by where I have the end of the x-wave (or impulse, if its bullish) labelled.
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Really not hopeful of that happening, I think there will be another ABC, and it will reset all stoch RSI except the weekly, then it will be ready.
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To bullish on the B wave, we already failed the first C-wave crossing the 0-B in time, so we should reject at the orange dotted line
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Or technically any time, now, B time is same as A
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Well, that wasn't what I was a expecting. Not sure what happened there, so will have to try to figure out and explanation - would be a good to know. Possibly it is a running flat, so a much more bullish Wave-B than I thought... will have to confirm though that that is the case when I have enough time.
If it is, I guess we are looking all in all pretty damn bullish going forward here.
If it is, I guess we are looking all in all pretty damn bullish going forward here.
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Still need to break 11700 in the next little bit, I am quite a bit more optimistic now after seeing what just happened that it can happen. If it does, hold onto your butts!
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And one more quick update, much more confident this is going up and we are impulsive. Took a look at Wave-1 retracement and considering that that was a running flat, wavee-2 retraced 38.2% of wave-1, which is the ideal amount for wave-2 in and impulsive. if I put wave-3 target at 161.8%, it lines up perfectly with the previous high, so that leaves all new upside on Wave-5.
Wave-5 and 4 targets not accurate, but wave-3 is a decent target for a minimum... if it ends up being extended wave-3 then who knows at this point... will consider that if it happens.
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but first wave-2 needs to conclude, we should be doing Wave-C zigzag.
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Possible wave-C targets before bounce, 11225 or 11125.
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But I like the latter better, $11125. lines up with a trendline and is a retest of the 38.2% fib.
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BTC outplaying me right now on the lower timeframes, I'll be honest. Been in an out all day and have to laugh that when I come back it keeps overshooting everything I say.
Lower TF are absolutely a weakness of mine to count, and I probably should focus more on the overall picture than the the shorter ones, but hey, practice is practice, right?
Hope all are doing well, I can see a couple possible interpretations for the count, and unfortunately they are opposite, so take them with a healthy grain of salt, for you own sake :).
Lower TF are absolutely a weakness of mine to count, and I probably should focus more on the overall picture than the the shorter ones, but hey, practice is practice, right?
Hope all are doing well, I can see a couple possible interpretations for the count, and unfortunately they are opposite, so take them with a healthy grain of salt, for you own sake :).
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BTC is rapidly approaching the time of failure, so it will either rocket imminently, or there is further correction and I may consider my original diametric count to be correct..., should have a better idea soon.
Diametric idea is here
Diametric idea is here
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If we cross the dashed blue vertical line nearing before we break above the 0-B, it should go down, but it's still possible we break it.
I am not a bit iffy about this being impulsive, because the WAve-C zigzag retrace below the 50% fib, which Can technically still work but... again thinking we will go down based on this now.
We shall see!
I am not a bit iffy about this being impulsive, because the WAve-C zigzag retrace below the 50% fib, which Can technically still work but... again thinking we will go down based on this now.
We shall see!
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It's also interesting to see that the smaller ABC that I was calling Wave-2 there, when I draw the 0-B trendline for that, it nearly gives the same price and time as the larger one for the correction to end.
Definitely is a significant level.
Definitely is a significant level.
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aaaand with the wave- counter like i was actually counting something and not drawing random stuff :joy:
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Wave-C count *
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And my apology on flipping to Bitmex on a couple of those charts, same idea of course, but the price targets are a bit different. I trade on BitMex, but like to use Coinbase because I keep that chart a little tidier than my chicken scratch BitMex charts...
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Just an FYI, looking at BTC needing to cross the first 0-B within 50 minutes to be still in the game.
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And the larger one at 8 PM UTC.
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Also, if anyone is actually reading these - feel free to let me know your thoughts as we go along. Sometimes I get stuck in an idea when I should be more open to other possibilities.
I've started keeping these ideas mostly as a record for me so I cacn review them later and actually learn from what was going on at the time and may have tripped me up.
I've started keeping these ideas mostly as a record for me so I cacn review them later and actually learn from what was going on at the time and may have tripped me up.
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One more thought... we DID cross this larger 0-B line fast enough, so really, we should be going up
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Solid yellow in the above chart is what I was referring to.
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So, if we don't end the correction in time, BTC SHOULD go sideways for the next ABC and not make another low, because that would ruin the impulsive (it's already bellow the 50%, and again that doesn't make me feel great about it being impulsive). Conflicting indications can be frustrating :joy:.
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DOWN
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Will update shortly, figure dout where my count went wrong... be are in the ABC now from that move up still... actually in Wave-B. There will be a Wave-C zigzag down shortly.
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Along these lines
not sure on a wave-C target, but, Wave-B was pretty wimpy to the upside.
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My only hesitation on this being bearish now is the freaking stoch RSI though. Wish it wasn't so low... maybe we get a down for this C, and then it will bounce up? Down seems almost certain for the near future though.
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I have another possible idea for BTC involving it heading down right from here, shortly, will update with it once I can draw it out to make sense.
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Having said that, I think up probably makes most sense from here... but just as another possibility.
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Another quick comment about what I'm charting, in case this does go down before I can update - in keeping with the rule of neutrality, it would be great if it did go down to a similar price level as the first wave down in this correction before heading up. So I would expect near that price level if it does (Wave-A in Wave-A).
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Okay, I think this can work. I am a little shakey on the time rules within a correction when there is a failure to break the 0-B trendline and an X-wave forms. Basically I'm not sure then if the larger degree B-wave would be at least the same amount of time as the smaller ABC-X-Wave-ABC OR if it just needs to be at least one of the ABC lengths of time. Here, I have put the orange B w-ave length of time equal to just one of the ABC corrections, because otherwise it seems very drawn out and not very balanced.
We will see though, just a thought.
We will see though, just a thought.
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I also would think that I probably have by orange B wave too high there, if this is the case, but I think it should break that dashed yellow for A to complete.
I'll admit, it gets a little confusing when you start getting to this short of a timeframe, keeping track of every rule for the smaller corrections (and also if they are really still valid), there is a lot more chance of things failing the smaller you go on timeframes due to there just being overall less volume and time to form the patterns correctly, easier to be manipulated/create noise, etc... definitely more reliable on the higher ones.
I'll admit, it gets a little confusing when you start getting to this short of a timeframe, keeping track of every rule for the smaller corrections (and also if they are really still valid), there is a lot more chance of things failing the smaller you go on timeframes due to there just being overall less volume and time to form the patterns correctly, easier to be manipulated/create noise, etc... definitely more reliable on the higher ones.
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Okay! Worked out all the internal waves (or attemted to, I'm sure there is a mistake somewhere, but this seems to work from what I can tell. We should actually be in Wave-2 of C of B of B, so down here for 3,4,5 of C.
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Target $10150 I think, that is Wave-C price 100% of Wave-A, internally extended Wave-5 at 161.8% of Waves-1-3 and is approximately the low of the larger A-wave.
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Just increasing the detail to get a better count, probably still in Wave-2 of the yellow, so Wave-C left.
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For C of 2, my target is 11300, which is 38.2% retracement of wave-1.
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Another potential is this is still Wave-4 of yellow Wave-1, but it's getting too small scale to really tell (or at least I can't).
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Aaaand one more potential, instead of the current orange ABC I show us doing right now, there is potential that wave B of B is a triangle, and will break to the upside for C when completed. As it is right now, definitely looks possible.
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I noticed that we are consolidating within the white, with the exception of Wave-C of A, kinda makes me like the potential of this being a tirangle that much more.
Something like this makes me wonder if we could in fact we are making a large neutral triangle, which will break to the upside when completed - see here
https ://kiprushov.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/clip_image0044_thumb.jpg?w=499&h=229. (TV is ridiculous, can't post links without being pro...i put a space between https and :)
That would agree with the stoch RSI being so low, so it will be interesting to see.
Something like this makes me wonder if we could in fact we are making a large neutral triangle, which will break to the upside when completed - see here
https ://kiprushov.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/clip_image0044_thumb.jpg?w=499&h=229. (TV is ridiculous, can't post links without being pro...i put a space between https and :)
That would agree with the stoch RSI being so low, so it will be interesting to see.
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Or perhaps a larger and more violent version of what happened after the smaller red one? I've actually never really noticed these "internal" triangle consolidation patterns that form so nicely here.
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Just for fun... I actually think this makes more sense here, we are in a much larger Wave-A, inside of Wave-B currently. This goes along more with my diametric idea, and leads to this cascading effect of larger degree corrections. Wave-C very possibly has started and we will go further down.
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But I'm still pretty unsure either way right now, will see soon enough I guess.
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Looks like we're heading up.
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Actually, critical point right now, can go either way.
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I think if we can get back above ~12800, this will really moon, hard.
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Breaking 12800, next target will be around around or slightly under 15k, and if it's still going, there's a good chance it'll make a new ath.
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Will update with a chart when I get home, but based on some trend lines I drew and how it has been behaving, it will reject two more times off the trend line most likely 'each progressively higher, though) before breaking out if is going to.
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So the first rejection will be around 12700-12800.
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Sorry, that's a lie, it will make a higher high, not sure on what price that is atm.
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A very rough estimate puts it at around 15k or slightly under.
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It's a little dicier and less clear cut than I thought when on my phone, but it still potentially could be huge. Here is what I saw
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Where that last high was the test right before it goes into a new parabolic trend, but on a larger scale than the 3 smaller examples.
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I can't stress this enough though, be EXTREMELY cautious right now. If the pullback is not finished, it is going to dump VERY hard to complete it. I'm hoping it is done, though, and I've gone long, but will be watching this like a hawk and stops in place for anything going down from here.
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If this does break up, and BTC on the larger trend follows this 3 touch, pullback moon, we are about to go for the third touch on the full chart.... $50000!!
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This does break a lot of EW rules, but I have had an extremely hard time making sense of the larger BTC chart in terms of EW... risky trade, huge reward.
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My best rough idea for the total BTC chart as to where we are at is the following, we are currently in the middle of Wave-3 and Wave-3 is the subdivided wave of the impulse series...
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I probably did get too excited, this is likely Wave-1 of Wave-3 of Wave-3, so we will have to have a correction before it goes huge... Wave-2 of 3 of 3, post a chart in a minute.
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Targets not accurate on that chart, just the count idea.
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If this isn't the beginning of Wave-2 yet, we are going to pump really hard,, really fast, and then crash 10x as fast.... so be careful.
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Kind of doubling back to what I was thinking before..., but including the larger picture now. I think we are in Wave-C of Wave-B of Wave-A of Wave-4 of Wave-1 of Wave-3 of Wave-3... That is a very confusing sequence to try to see in your head, but here is the zoom in of what I think is Wave-1 of Wave-3 of Wave-3.
The other potential is that we are in Wave-2 and not actually 3 yet, it's certainly possible.
The other potential is that we are in Wave-2 and not actually 3 yet, it's certainly possible.
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Sadly, yeah, that is the likely case. Ending Wave-B of 2 of 3... not Wave 1 of 3 of 3 yet. Wave-2 of Wave-3 is just too short in time to be completed... We still have a C-wave correction like I thought before. Sorry guys... thioos isn't the bullrun XD.
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On the plus side, we are looking at as early as December of this year to begin Wave-1 of 3 of 3, and that will be the beginning of the true bull run.
Save your money, you're going to want it :D.
Save your money, you're going to want it :D.
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In the meantime, Wave-B of 2 cannot be completed yet, it also is too short. What it does from here, I am not quite sure. It could essentially be sideways until the time comes, or it could have more upside. It should not be correcting yet, though.
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I'm going to start a new idea and track the full chart of BTC, so follow that one if you guys would like. This is the main idea of it
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Of all my ideas, this one seems to actually still be working, so I will leave it for now as a possibility. Please see my new ideas here, which have similar paths as this one:
