FelixBrusch

Accuracy of Fibonacci Retracement

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Hi guys,

Yesterday i got into a discussion on the merits and arbitrary nature of Fibonacci Retracement .
I believed that Phi was in fact an arbitrary basis and that any prediction it made was at best a self fulfilling prophecy.

The three indicator inputs are

1. The number candles to use in detecting pivot points
2. Fib0
3. Fib100

The Indicator looks for high and low pivot points that indicate reversals in the market by looking at the # of Candles we specified in 1. in both directions
We then calculate the distance between that reversals directional maximum and the nearest Fibonacci Retracement line.
We plot that distance in % of the entire Fibonacci Retracement Range.

keep in mind that the maximum distance to a fib line is distance(FibX,FibX+1)/2 which is 10.1166666667 on average

So if the Indicator shows a fault of 2% it is a relative fault of 19.77%

You can look at the results and judge for yourself.

Comment: I added the indicator to the public library so you can test it out yourself.