Painful move down to commence ~ 10/5

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
971 30 5
This correction will last until ~12/18 and take us down to lows last seen mid April ~51.

I suspect that there may be 1 weak push up between now and 10/5, taking us no higher than 146. But in any case, by 10/7 it should be clear that the a correction is at hand.

My suggestion is to keep your powder dry, because this will likely be the last move down of the 2013 bear market (an E wave). You will want to be able to buy at or near the low shortly before Christmas, because 2014 will likely be a great year for bulls...
This was clearly not a correct call, long term. It resulted in only a small gain, having sold at the high, and then re-bought only slightly less as week later, when it became clear that the chart was signaling it intended to go higher. Time to take another look at my elliot wave count. This is not likely an ABCDE... More likely a wave 1 up...
The pullback already happened. Bitcoin is getting new media exposure, all time high at the end of the year.
Thanks Robocoin. JMatth is doing some cutting edge work with respect to market geometry. We correspond regularly - he is breaking new ground, imo...
I was discouraged by the thought that my pivotal day looked like it may have been a low rather than a high. But having had a day to sleep/think on it, I will renew my original forecast as described above. I think we are going to start the next leg down soon. Probably starting within the next 36 hours.
robocoin JimFred
<- This nice analysis also suggests a change by tonight (UTC).
robocoin robocoin
actually tomorrow :P
Yes guys, you are right. I have been studying the charts all day, and find that I simply can not bring myself to go long here.

Even though 10/5 was not the pivotal day I had anticipated, the more I look at this the more convinced I am that a serious fall is likely, and soon.
So, we can see the big 9-month bull flag on the chart, which will be broken after the new year, right?
UPDATE: I based this forecast on the belief that 10/5 would be a pivotal day. Given the relentless up move since 7/5, I expected it to be a high.

Looking at the daily chart a few days after 10/5, it increasingly seems that the pivotal day I expected on 10/5, actually came a day or two early, AND WAS A LOW on 10/3.

Therefor I feel it is time to eat some crow and suggest that this forecast appears to have been wrong. In fact, it is starting to look like the next leg up is about to begin...
I still agree with your chart, but I disagree with your update. The trend has been reversed (we have seen the "three black crows" and the "triple top" patterns). And too much slippage above $150. And "Chaikin Money Flow" on the daily chart shows us negative value last 2 weeks. We can't go up. Now simmetrial triangle is forming, and in 2-3 weeks we can continue the downwards.
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