JimFred
Short

Painful move down to commence ~ 10/5

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
967 30 5
This correction will last until ~12/18 and take us down to lows last seen mid April ~51.

I suspect that there may be 1 weak push up between now and 10/5, taking us no higher than 146. But in any case, by 10/7 it should be clear that the a correction is at hand.

My suggestion is to keep your powder dry, because this will likely be the last move down of the 2013 bear market (an E wave). You will want to be able to buy at or near the low shortly before Christmas, because 2014 will likely be a great year for bulls...
MBitcoin
3 years ago
Do you take into consideration multiple time frames or just the daily chart?
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
I look at the 8 hr and the 3 day as well. But the daily is my preferred time frame....
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quark104449
3 years ago
Great Prediction!
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
There are no knee jerk reactions, imho. Everything the market is going to do is foretold by the charts. There are no accidents or mistakes. The market is alive. It lives, breathes and grows.
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Bonkzilla
3 years ago
spot on
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
Thanks,- but actually I was not expecting such a violent drop. The magnitude of the wave ( wave 3?) was such that I tend to doubt it will continue down as long as I thought... Will re-assess in a few days...
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robocoin JimFred
3 years ago
I am looking Forward to your new reading! We witnessed a really hard decline. Bad news while nagging on a serious resistance :D But buyers are not hiding. I am bullish short term, attacking 146-150 resistance again would be very encouraging.
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Taidiji
3 years ago
1- You can't predict markets by reading charts, you can just make assumptions about where the decisions will be made. I.e Pullback or breakthrough. "Everything is foretold by the charts" = hilarious.

2-Bitcoin chart analysis should be done on a logarithmic scale for better results.

3-If you don't understand crowds psychology, here is how you should read what happened: BTCUSD went on a huge rally from july to september with almost no pullback for people to buy in and was trying to break through resistance, Silk Road was in the top3 worst news for bitcoin (top1 is protocol hack, very low probability, top2 is government crackdown) yet it could not even manage to end the day under the last support level of the rally. This is a classic shakeout. Now people who sold in panic have to buy back, this will be mitigated somewhat by people who bought during the crash for a trade who will soon sell for profit if not done already. However all weak hands are out and people who were waiting (without orders in the books) for weeks for a pullback to buy will now have to buy very soon if prices can't go lower. => Upside breakthrough in the coming weeks.
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
Taidiji, You are welcome to your opinions, and I wish you every success in trading. But if you insult me by calling my trading philosophy hilarious again, I will ask the TV moderators to moderate your arrogance.
In the meantime, regardless of what you think of my trading philosophy, I foretold a significant sell-off 12 hours before it began. That is documented here for all to see. Please direct me to where you made a similar forecast, in the last 24 hours or so. If you cannot do that, then please accept there is a possibility, however slim, that you do not yet know everything. Thank you.
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Taidiji JimFred
3 years ago
Any resistance will lead either to pullback or breakthrough after a few test. There is no magic here. You were lucky that the SR news hit that day and thats it. I predicted the rebound 70 usd on the ma200daily that was the low post April-bubble burst. Doesnt make me able to predict every bitcoin move... You seem to think charts have physicak properties or should be symetric for some reason lol. The candlesticks printed in front of your eyes are just the result of the psychology of the buyer/sellers. If you don't understand the market you are trading, the chart won't help so much.

A monkey can trace 2 parallel lines on a chart by connecting dots and guess that breakthrough OR pullback will happen there. Doesn't make it a trader ;)
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
Please show me your published prediction - if you have a history of correctly forecasting (publicly) significant moves in advance I will consider following you. Otherwise, please do not comment on my pages again in the future. You are not a gentleman and you are not welcome here. Thank you for respecting my request.
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afbitcoins
3 years ago
Not intending to cause offence but you did get lucky with the silk road take down. That was a black swan. your lower trendline might be valid but seems early to say that, there is only one point of contact back at the beginning of July
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
None taken. Other people also feel that this was just a "coincidence" that the news broke when it did. I can see why one might say/believe that. I don't believe there are any coincidences, but people are free to believe according to what makes sense to them...
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
UPDATE: I based this forecast on the belief that 10/5 would be a pivotal day. Given the relentless up move since 7/5, I expected it to be a high.

Looking at the daily chart a few days after 10/5, it increasingly seems that the pivotal day I expected on 10/5, actually came a day or two early, AND WAS A LOW on 10/3.

Therefor I feel it is time to eat some crow and suggest that this forecast appears to have been wrong. In fact, it is starting to look like the next leg up is about to begin...
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ShortThePlanet JimFred
3 years ago
I still agree with your chart, but I disagree with your update. The trend has been reversed (we have seen the "three black crows" and the "triple top" patterns). And too much slippage above $150. And "Chaikin Money Flow" on the daily chart shows us negative value last 2 weeks. We can't go up. Now simmetrial triangle is forming, and in 2-3 weeks we can continue the downwards.
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ShortThePlanet ShortThePlanet
3 years ago
Also, we have broken the uptrend trendline on high volume.
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DrewR ShortThePlanet
3 years ago
I concur. This is just the start and headed downward; albeit slowly.
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ShortThePlanet DrewR
3 years ago
Ichimoku also tells about a trend reversal. TOO MANY indicators are shouting about a downtrend. We can't go up.
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
Yes guys, you are right. I have been studying the charts all day, and find that I simply can not bring myself to go long here.

Even though 10/5 was not the pivotal day I had anticipated, the more I look at this the more convinced I am that a serious fall is likely, and soon.
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ShortThePlanet JimFred
3 years ago
So, we can see the big 9-month bull flag on the chart, which will be broken after the new year, right?
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
I was discouraged by the thought that my pivotal day looked like it may have been a low rather than a high. But having had a day to sleep/think on it, I will renew my original forecast as described above. I think we are going to start the next leg down soon. Probably starting within the next 36 hours.
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robocoin JimFred
3 years ago
BTCUSD: Gann Square and Rectangle Clones
<- This nice analysis also suggests a change by tonight (UTC).
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robocoin robocoin
3 years ago
actually tomorrow :P
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
Thanks Robocoin. JMatth is doing some cutting edge work with respect to market geometry. We correspond regularly - he is breaking new ground, imo...
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Taidiji
3 years ago
The pullback already happened. Bitcoin is getting new media exposure, all time high at the end of the year.
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JimFred PRO
3 years ago
This was clearly not a correct call, long term. It resulted in only a small gain, having sold at the high, and then re-bought only slightly less as week later, when it became clear that the chart was signaling it intended to go higher. Time to take another look at my elliot wave count. This is not likely an ABCDE... More likely a wave 1 up...
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