Is Bitcoin about to rally to $110-120k ??

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Very probable. In the next 6 to 9 months.

This idea is a continuation from the idea:
‘Is Bitcoin about to collapse to $20k ??” published back in December. You can read it here: http://tinyurl.com/35bp2xc8

Previously the $20k target was based around the idea of a wave 4 Elliot wave correction. A strong sell signal on the weekly. Now everything is in reverse. Wave 5 rally seems highly probable with a strong buy signal. Actually this is the first ‘incredible buy’ signal I’ve seen on a weekly chart of Bitcoin , no matter the exchange.

I can hear it already:

“This isn’t a wave 4 correction, it’s a bear market!!”

Yes and no.

Yes, technically it is a bear market, but crypto winter? No. This is just a heavy wave 4 correction like we’re seen in other cycles, such as:

1) July 2019 to April 2020
2) April 2013 to August 2013

Both corrections were around 75%. What you’ll notice is the rally that followed each of those corrections was particularly strong.

** Lengthening cycles **

I’ve a big fan the lengthening cycle theory first brought to my attention by the Youtube Benjamin Cowen . If you overlay the theory with pervious cycles you find the market top for this cycle is 6 months earliest 9 months latest. The increasing lengths are shown on the above weekly chart.

How does rally play out? As per the weekly chart below, a rally to the $48k level before September. There’ll be an excellent swing trade opportunity around this time. And then off to the top.

What are the fundamental reasons for all of this happening? Risk assets all over are about to do the same. We’re told a recession is coming if not already in one (depending what country you’re in) with an environment of rising rates. Obviously the two cannot coexist, the FED will have to pivot if economies are showing slow growth. When the herd get whiff of a rate pivot ..

The other half to this explosive growth is slowing demand in the face of peaking inflation . With the rate rises everyone has started to watch the pennies at the exact same moment retailers have overstocked. There’s no question inflation has peaked and will likely now come down hard in the months ahead in an environment of rising rates.

The combination of rate pivot and falling demand is a unique set of circumstances you don’t see very often. You’ve got to look back decades.

Questions? Just ask below!


Type: trade
Risk: <=40% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 - 9 month
Return: 6x

Weekly chart
Comment: Forgot to add a ‘go long’ from which price area. Are you ready?

Where price is bottom?

Keep going….

Stop trying to time market!

No one knows where the bottom is. Yet a few have messaged asking exactly that.

On the 2-day chart below price action is focusing into a tight area within the falling wedge with very little room for manoeuvre. When you see a break to the right of the orange line, get long. Price action rallies to $48k rather quickly after that, look left.

The green vertical lines are ‘market bottoms’ indicators.

The Green moving average is the 300-week MA. Price action has never broken it. Currently around $17k and climbing. There's a few sellers out there still begging for the life to be squeezed out of them, you might get lucky holding a limit order open around these levels.

The ‘incredible buy’ signal is conditional (red circles), and has yet to confirm. When it confirms the label will appear on the chart.

I’ll make this idea ‘trade active’ one confirmation is there, if I remember.


Comment: ** Strong market bottom signal **

You all be lucky I enjoy studying data so much. Thus far the comments below are easily majority bearish. Completely in line with the contrarian outlook.

Remember 95% of the people reading this will lose money. They keep doing it time and time again. There’s no end of messages ‘$10k is next bro, I’m short’. Just imagine, every seller today is almost certainly doing so at a loss. Just let that sink in for a moment.

On the 10-day chart below an alarm that was set up a long while back just triggered. Had completely forgotten about it, obviously. There is two moving averages:

1) The yellow line the 700-day EMA
2) The red line the the 150-day SMA

There is only two data points to be sure. However what is irrefutable is the timing of the market bottom when those moving averages crossed. If you’re hanging on for that full 80% 90% collapse..

It does not end here.. no no. Look at the time that came to pass before price action touched the 150-day SMA from the crossover. A 70% reduction in time, which now projects a $34k price target before August 10th. Now I understand that might seem tenuous, however, this information actually takes data from multiple time frames not what is just shown below.

Viel Spaß!


Comment: Daily chart, bullish divergence printing on the historical 300-day/weekly moving average.

Bears... prepare yourselves, short positions to the moon please.

Comment: The inverse head and shoulders pattern as identified on the 1-day chart below is actually more powerful on Stochastic RSI than it is on price action. It is telling you there is about to be a leap in momentum. You don’t often see them but when you do… don’t sit on your hands! This inverse head and shoulders is larger than the last. The way to think about this… You know what a slingshot is? This one is pulled back further than the previous.

Trade active: 4 charts up ^^^ look up ^^^ I said:

“The ‘incredible buy’ signal is conditional (red circles), and has yet to confirm. When it confirms the label will appear on the chart. I’ll make this idea ‘trade active’ once confirmation prints.”

The signal was confirmed yesterday.

Comment: There be a lot of messages informing me of the bear flag that is currently printing as is shown on the 18hr chart below.

“$12k is next bro, such and such on Youtube said… ”

“$16k will break then $12k” etc etc

Is this possible? For sure it is. The market is so fickle right now. Could be a liquidation, who knows.

Is it probable? No. Why? That 2-day chart above and now zoomed in a little below:

1) You’ve got the buy signal as before, look left + the market bottom green strip.

2) Price action is on the 0.618 golden zone.

3) Bullish divergence with Stochastic RSI and MACD.

I’d long this chart every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Stay away from social media folks.


Comment: This guy sounds like he knows what he's talking about... ;)

Comment: ** pi-cycle bottom alert **

The Melbourne based exchange, Eightcap, is the first to print the 'pi-cycle' bottom alert. Expecting others to print the alert over the next 24hours.

Comment: This was shared to me, can't take credit. Was told to check out the fractal from the 2019 correction to the present day. Don't trust, verify. So I did.

Remarkable. What you have here is the 2019 correction overlaid with the present day correction.

Should this fractal continue to play out as it has done, price action shall be around $30k end of July / Beginning of August and in the mid-$50k area during September.

Comment: ** pi-cycle bottom **

All high volume exchanges are now printing the pi-cycle bottom label.

Here are the last two times only it is has previously printed.

Is this the bottom? Highly probable +/- $10.87 you know how fickle this market is.

Comment: Amazing how well this fractal is projecting rice action. Should it continue, $25k is hit 3 days from now.

Comment: For the 3rd time ever a 'great buy' signal prints on the 5-day chart.

Still waiting for $12k?

Comment: Have you seen how the weekly log growth curve chart looks at the moment? The symmetry is remarkable with the target clear to see.

$48k by around September / October latest. At that same time there'll be an amazing swing trade opportunity as club 95% rush in when they should have been doing so at $17k. We, club 5%, will need their liquidity so be nice to them.

Comment: Better be quick before Ben does a 40 minute YouTube on this..

Price action on Bitcoin has printed its first green weekly Heikin Ashi candle from the sell off. That has not happened since the end of January. This means the trend is reversing.

The candle that printed is called a ‘inverted hammer’ AND it has printed as green. What does this mean?

1) See the wick? That tells you the bulls were able to go deep in seller territory will little resistance.

2) It printed Green. This tells you sellers are exhausted. I did a tutorial on this a while back and why this reversal pattern is very powerful. You can read about it here:

The weeks ahead are about to very exciting, don’t let sentiment overwhelm.

Latterly on normal candles, the first ever ‘incredible buy’ signal has printed on the weekly chart. No matter the exchange this has never happened before. What does it mean? It means price action on this sell off was the most oversold ever. The March 2020 sell off doesn’t come close.

Comment: A lot of messages:

“Looks like it’s going back down to $17k”

“Such and such on YouTube said $10k is the next level”

Emotions are still flying all direction and not one bit of that energy is studying the charts.

Technical analysis 101:

1) Look left - Notice the 300MA has never failed price action in the history of Bitcoin. That means $19.5k was the floor. i.e the last cycle top.

2) Support and resistance. Did anyone else notice the price action resistance was recently broken and now support back test is underway? Furthermore the same is also true on the RSI resistance.

In summary to those messaging, chill chinchilla.

Comment: Monthly price action closes on the 50-month moving average (blue line). If you look a closely, the candle bodies in this correction are near mirror copies of the 2018/19 and 2014/15 corrections. The 2018/2019 bars pattern correction is overlaid on todays correction. $70k by the year end.

Comment: A quick club 95% / 5% test,

Will Bitcoin reach $27k before the middle of the month?



Leave a yes or no only below!
Comment: A lot of messages asking about lower lows, is back to $17k and lower etc coming? Folks if +/- $1k swings are making you nervous, you'll never make it the cycle top.

Here is the daily chart - can you see the ascending triangle?

And just for fun, here is the last 5 days on the 30 minute chart!

Comment: Weekly stochastic RSI just recently crossed up 40 (red circles) following the strongest ever buy signal. It is remarkable the number of retail traders now looking to short this market after a 10% rally from $22k since the last update.

Change that bearish bias quickly before it turns into a huge pile of regret.

Comment: What is about to happen next will probably take most people by surprise… and it’s all to do with those red circles you see on the 6-day chart below.

1) Price action rallies to the 20/21-week SMA (bull market support band). When price action is around here, the market will be on fire. Currently that level is around $27.3 to 27.5k. If you see price action above here one morning, switch off that bearish bias quickly.

2) Once (1) is confirmed, the surprise will happen. That is an explosive rally to the 50-week SMA (blue line), currently around $37.5k to $38k.

3) If (1) and (2) happens, price action will rally to the previous all time high.

4) IF price action finds support on $48k (never mind the all time high)… the $48k is of massive importance, if that happens then this idea will reach its target with a high degree of confidence. That’s all because of what history tells us on the log growth curve.



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