Seems like more than half of traders are trying to "catch the bottom" with a double 5 - year RSI bottom for confirmation (a greedy comfort level in my opinion that might not play out). You could end up gaining more BTC if the price lowers but your potential stack could also be considerably lower if the price rises. The upside is most likely several orders of magnitude higher than the downside at this point (though nothing is for sure). If everyone is trying to "catch the bottom" at a price of about a grand lower than it is now, that tells me something about price limits considering that its impossible for everyone to get a fill at that level when they all try and pile in at once. Its a gamble on the downside. I think the macro headwinds look good for BTC overall in terms of custody solutions and payment channels (lightning, Square Cash App, Bakkt/Starbucks, Venesuala adoption, etc...), and large names recently sticking up for BTC and instilling some confidence. If you're willing to gamble for a better entry then wait for the ~$2.5k region but I think the better strategy at this point is to be content with the ~85% BTC price drop and already bottomed 5-year RSI and take your position and hold. If you want put in half and wait to see if a better price emerges (this is my strategy) that could be wise as well. Regardless, at whatever price you make your entry, the best strategy is to buy and hold multi-year. The people who did this in the last cycle made the biggest gains by far and you won't have to pay the ridiculous short term tax rate if youre western based. Good luck.
Comment:
In terms of upside confidence, if we take out BTC $4516 it looks like a breakout to above $6k is likely. The second half of my sidelined cash will wait for this level to be broken.