Continuing on with the previous post, I have tweaked the hypothesis based on recent information, others opinion and the fib.pitchfork channel, etc.
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Lets talk about now. <Note> We have hit the expected resistance as this was a respected resistance and then support zone. We have noted a decisive pass on the 9950 mark but did not for the 10150 mark. <Note> The sloping trend line (in blue) is playing a key role now with the confirmation of this bounce, so we need to keep this in mind. However we are at the micro- trend level, bearish, Now, how likely are we to move higher? I listen or follow a few knowledgeable people (as I'm still a student) and they say the likelihood or probability is on the downside. However we need to watch the next 4 HRS to see what happens here. If it drops then we look at to test the 9400 line again with a potential of 1 if not 2 bounces.
If we break down the 9400, then we look at the 8900 to 8500. There is a chance this will break. Hence I'm going in about 30% of my fiat for going long at this range. Its possible it can break lower to the 7K range. We can then re-asses what is next if or when this happens as there are many levels to consider at that time. Note: We have a relevant support line at 7500.
Lets see how the daily candle closes. A 4 HRLY open and close below the sloping support line, then its down for more.
The 8500 to 8900 is a real puzzle as many people have their eyes on it, not just for the CME gap. Since everyone is looking at it, it has 50% chance that it will happen or get overshot or undershot. A real psychological test.
DAILY Chart: (An idea only at this point) A possible downward wedge pattern, which can support the hypothesis for a big bounce at the 8500 to 8900 range. Howerver we need to see what happens in the next 3 or 5 days.
2 HRLY Chart: Divergences
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Ooops DAILY RSI Chart:
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After reviewing my initial post above... I think I overlooked the 0.618 fib level. Wow, bad mistake and a few other clues...idiot. The above is far to bearish because I have always stated that the entry is between 8400 to 8900. My chart didn't quite convey that. So I have updated this here. My thoughts now after seeing today and the past few days, people are reluctant to sell. Hence my final conclusion, 8900 is a real possibility for the bottom.