I currently see this as being a corrective move (inside the larger corrective move) from the recent surge. The yellow ABC marks my anticipated correction. Point B reached up to the 50% retracement and is now moving back down to complete the leg.
My target is the 127-141% which, if achieved, would also hit the 38.2% retracement from the first leg up. From there I would assume there is a bounce to complete the final leg with my target again at the 127-141% range.
Comments
brisully
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Nice analysis! I had already just gone short before reading this, though I was a bit confused about what was going on. Looking at this, I have to say I fully agree - and it helps that we're almost at your first target! In your view, is this whole upward correction (if it's headed for an ending at your next target at 470-480) wave 2 of a larger impulsive drop from the May high of 685?
DanLaffas
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Thanks @brisully. For now I think we could possibly drop to 407 as my Daily chart shows we gapped on that huge rise. See the below chart (note Wave indications are courtesy of @4xForecaster in his chart tradingview.com/v/NNwLQmbW/ )
Now if we do get another bounce, I will be aiming for the 470-480 range as per my chart above. As you can see by @4xForecaster's wave counts, we are still in a large Wave 3. I agree that we will head for the 270-305 area for Wave 4 as indicated. I will be looking for it touch on the red Daily trendline for reversal.
For now though, I will be preoccupied with the H4 chart and seeing whether the RSI respects its upward trendline as marked with the green circle below. If it fails, then 447 was the top of this correction and I'll be looking for the 270-305 bounce.
ChartArt
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Great target area in hindsight.
DanLaffas
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Thanks @ChartArt. The fibs just stood out to me on this one. I also realised after posting that the Daily fibs also line up with both targets?
ChartArt
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cool
ChartArt
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In terms of the oldest Fib lines we are hanging currently somewhere in free space: