There is High Level of Uncertainty Right Now
This analysis was developed using marketprofile to sort data.
What happened in previous five week:
Week 25: aggressive buying triggered by late majority entrance into the market.
Week 26: Late majority together with Laggards pushed the price to an excess high at the major resistance around $14000. The exact stop at this level & failure to break-through confirms that liquidation is mainly done by weak-hand money (late majority+laggards). Although it is a valid high, the probability of BTC holding this high is poor. Remember #JimDalton's "Exactness Kills!". Week 26 also developed a poor-low which signified the liquidation could still go on!
Week 27, very short-term traders started to buy the dips and this pushed the prices higher. However, since this bounce occurred by weaker-hand money, as it is evident by "poor low", it was unable to reach previous high at $14000. Note that the auction to the downside is NOT COMPLETE due to lack of a good base for this bounce!!! Here we got the second back to back poor-low. The odds for holding the low is very poor! Value area developed within previous week's value area indicating balancing is being formed.
Week 28: Value area was developed overlapping to slightly higher leaving a poor-high and an unchanged POC , double confirming the balance forming situation! The poor-high also signified the auction to the upside was left incomplete!
Week 29: As expected in previous analysis:
a bounce from unvisited POC of week 25 occurred. A valid low was left behind. BUT the bounce does not show enough strength to reach the target. Moreover, value developed lower and POC migrated lower. THE THINGS HAVE CHANGED & we are prone to high level of uncertainty. Last legs of week 29 was due to buying by week-hand day-timeframe traders as the push happened exactly at halfback.
What to expect now?
Sentiment is weak now. There are two scenarios at the moment:
The more probable scenario (scenario 1) would be the Bitcoin to go lower to the unvisited POC of week 24 @ around $7950. A break below week 29 low @9049 would double confirm this scenario.
In case of scenario 2 happening, the capital may move to altcoins giving rise to altcoins' season!!!
This analysis was developed using marketprofile to sort data.
What happened in previous five week:
Week 25: aggressive buying triggered by late majority entrance into the market.
Week 26: Late majority together with Laggards pushed the price to an excess high at the major resistance around $14000. The exact stop at this level & failure to break-through confirms that liquidation is mainly done by weak-hand money (late majority+laggards). Although it is a valid high, the probability of BTC holding this high is poor. Remember #JimDalton's "Exactness Kills!". Week 26 also developed a poor-low which signified the liquidation could still go on!
Week 27, very short-term traders started to buy the dips and this pushed the prices higher. However, since this bounce occurred by weaker-hand money, as it is evident by "poor low", it was unable to reach previous high at $14000. Note that the auction to the downside is NOT COMPLETE due to lack of a good base for this bounce!!! Here we got the second back to back poor-low. The odds for holding the low is very poor! Value area developed within previous week's value area indicating balancing is being formed.
Week 28: Value area was developed overlapping to slightly higher leaving a poor-high and an unchanged POC , double confirming the balance forming situation! The poor-high also signified the auction to the upside was left incomplete!
Week 29: As expected in previous analysis:
What to expect now?
Sentiment is weak now. There are two scenarios at the moment:
The more probable scenario (scenario 1) would be the Bitcoin to go lower to the unvisited POC of week 24 @ around $7950. A break below week 29 low @9049 would double confirm this scenario.
In case of scenario 2 happening, the capital may move to altcoins giving rise to altcoins' season!!!
Rejection of halfback means Scenario 2 is running!
A solid bear full body candle with healthy volume results in scenario 1.