This is a interim follow-up to analysis from May 24th:
Except for the "Imminent" bounce (which happened already) assumption made there were proven 100% right. Price failed to fall below 27.700$ and nowadays reached first resistance area at 42.000-44.000$.
Basically that's a return-to-mean scenario: price bounced over MA50/W (blue) and pulled back t MA20/W (red). The latter is midline of weekly Bollinger bands, hence NEUTRAL short trend line.
So for now we have to factor a technical bounce . We had three previous examples of such bounce across years, both within the first part of a correction, after a ATH. In both cases it all ended with a bull trap not far from MA20/W, after a +55 to +100% bounce from the low. Mind the fact we'r already +50% up from the 28.600$ low.
I'd say we are about to determine whether we're facing either a bull trap, or a breakout implying 64.000$ was possibly not the top.
Speaking of mere bias, MACD seems currently favouring a further notch up in price, as well as RSI/Stoch RSI. Hash Ribbons may paint a bule dot within days, eventually. That's all good, but still inconclusive for now.
This is a very tricky and extremely risky area, so caution is unavoidable. For now i'd recommend caution and watching carefully price action as this is a CRITICAL crossroad.
Mind the fact bears keep in charge till MA20/W get pierced on weekly close matter and volume. No matter what. Neutral from MA20/W up to Parabolic SAR (over 48.000$), yet still at risk of bull trap. Finally, bullish if Parabolic SAR can be pierced and kept for a few weeks.
That's all for now, hope you appreciate. As usual DYOD.
Comment
⋅
Blue dot awaiting confirmation.
Comment
⋅
Mind the fact a Blue dot may anticipate a trend change by days if not weeks. Look back to previous occurrences. So no hurry.
Price failed to pierce MA20/W on volume and keeps into the area.
Maybe this tree has to be shaken once more. Anyway, Parabolic SAR got down to 47.700$ and that's important.
For now price still sits the 42.000-44.000$ critical area. Hence no change, despite some more bullish bias confirmation.
Watch it, be patient and play safe.
Comment
⋅
Close to Parabolic SAR:
Clearly on the edge.
Comment
⋅
LIkely to move somewhere into 43,2-42,2 area.
If fails to bounce from there further weakness likely.
Comment
⋅
Anyway, volume down and failure to reverse parabolic SAR on weekly spell for trouble.