Best case scenario, what I had hoped for and what would really had been great would to see a green 1 today. In order to get a green 1, we would have had to close above yesterday. That doesn't mean we need a big fat green candle and breakout today but this candle needed to close above $8,056. Which we absolutely did not do and in fact we closed closer to the lows at $7,888. Not even really within a margin of error that you could fluff as "close."
So what we got instead was a red 1. What does that mean? Well...... it sets you up for a potential red 2..... As soon as that happens, the bears come out of hibernation and a sell signal flashes on the charts. How far it goes, how long it lasts? Your guess is as good as mine. Considering we are just finally trading outside a multi-month from the all time highs, I gather that this sell signal has enough "umph" to knock it back in the . That would be really, really, really, unfortunate for the technicals of the case to be made for the Bitcoin price. That pretty much wipes out all the good that has recently happened. If you had my back against a wall, with a gun to my head and I had to give my opinion..... this would be said in the standard Trump tone and summed up AS............."not..... good."
So what does that mean? It means you have about a $7,650 or so level, that really is an intermediate "point of no return."
What else is wrong? ...... Plenty. We're at the top of the (which doesn't necessarily mean we can't bust out of it and trade higher for a while) but things revert to the means and it doesn't usually last "that long." BTC is still under the (thankfully ascending 200 day moving average) while still under it "nothing good can happen." It must actually get over it for any sort of real case to be made. That's all the way at just over $9,600 bucks and a far cry from where we're sitting around the $7,900 level. If we were launching off a green 2 (with some coming in to confirm it), I would say we're possibly heading towards the 200 day moving average and it would act as a magnet to pull the price up. Nothing is showing up here to move the price higher at this point.
If shit really hits the fan, we're going to at least fall and test the 50 day moving average which is currently around $7,250 and that's right back down to where we were not too long ago. I'm sure a lot of people bought Bitcoin around $6,700-$7,100. We had been sitting in that range since like March 29th( ish ).
A case to be made? Well..... today's action only really delayed the inevitable action of the "second coming of Bitcoin" and ultimately much, much higher prices. Or the classic...."the low has been put in"...."the fundamentals are better than ever"..... "this is just tax related selling"..... all that crap-o-la. Which I agree that the fundamentals are better than ever, I think the tax selling might have an extremely small impact but "it's an unknown and probably always will be an unknown" and certainly nobody knows if the low has actually been put in. Not only that... but when you say "low".... on what time frame are you referring to?
So what's the deal? the deal is you close your eyes, hold your nose and pray. That's all. Oh... or another great solution is don't trade. HODL your Bitcoin , know that it is ultimately going to go much, much higher and try to acquire all you can....... Or maybe jut trade some shitcoins (LTC, XMR, DGB )