Lots going on here. Let me explain it easily, i color coded the support levels.
First off, the dashed lines. Those are the weekly support and weekly resistances of the 2017 bull run. They meet each other in april of 2022 at 5,100$. They are real supports. Legit rock solid supports.
Now, the white line is 11,5k. It is a major support/resistance on the weekly chart dating back 5 years. A major one.
The blue line is 8,100$. It is also a major support on the weekly chart dating back 5 years.
The yellow line is one of the most important lines in crypto too. It is 5,100/5,200$.
I used color coded arrows to show all the times each was support over the last 5 years.
Now comes the crazy part. I copied the fractal of the 2020 bullrun. I flipped it upside down on the logarithmic chart on accident. Just for fun I decided to put it at 65k and see what it looked like. I looked at the chart and noticed 3 very brutal crashes. Well, I looked at the price points those crashes came to.
And...
Each of those 3 crashes crashes to a MAJOR MAJOR support line on the weekly chart.
11,500$ was a spot I was waiting to buy at. 8,100$ was a spot i considered too. Then... I noticed that 5,100$ happens at the spot where those two bold white dashed lines meet.
I decided to research 5,100$. I wanted to see what 5,100$ was. Was it a major support/resistance that I completely neglected to look at?
Well... Yes. Yes it was. 5,100$ was insanely important. When bitcoin fell below 5,100$ in november 2018 it created the crash to 3k.
So... I think our January-May 2022 bear market will have 3 distinct crashes.
I think after we top out in our bullish area we are in over the next month or two (i think around 56,800$ at the moment)...
We crash to 11,500$. Then pop upwards a bit. Then crash to 8,100$. Then pop upwards a bit. Then crash to 5,100/5,200$. And that 5,100/5,200$ somewhere around april/beginning of may 2022 IS the bottom. And it's going to start a new bullrun.
It's going to start a new bullrun similar to march 2020. I no longer think we're long term going to start a super bear market. I now think 5100/5200$ holds as support and I think 2025 will bring the biggest bitcoin bullrun in history. Probably 300k in 2025.
This is bear hopium lol. If it hits 5k i'll buy both of us 10 BTC each haha. Dude, even COVID caused a crash from ~10k to 3k and that was it. How can you expect it to drop this low. IMO if we drop from here the current macro bottom is 28-30k. And after we set new ATH EOY, the new bottom next bear cycle will be ~50k.
UnknownUnicorn4285265
⋅
@theshawon, We are going to have another "covid crash" in march 2022. History is repeating. It's covid 2 in march 2022.
PtSp86
⋅
dammit 20k with some off chain panic from stocks.
CryptoCheck-
⋅
BTCUSD - 100d Moving Averages and Fib 0.618
CryptoCheck-
⋅
nice idea
ClearOpenDoor
⋅
There are CME gaps as low as $6,355. That's a little one though.
There's a big gap at $9,645! One day we will get down there again and I will buy a ton of btc at that level.
I don't think it's coming as soon as we'd like though. We could go through another entire bull run before it happens.
theshawon
⋅
@ClearOpenDoor, CME gaps don't need to get filled, price will never touch down there again. There's also a big CME gap in the low 20s, but even after our May crash it filled up all the gaps up to 28k and that was it, it wasn't even going to go lower than that to fill up the CME gaps right below it. That's how strong this support is, don't expect below 28k ever again IMHO.
How about the big 32.4k gap? We gonna hit there at some point?
Fullsend99
⋅
Ur crazy
JuneZzang
⋅
Well... I don't know how many will think like you. 5k bottom is a little too much of dip don't you think? I'm thinking around 16k for the ultimate bottom. Although I'm not sure when will come.