Here is my latest Bitcoin Projection. This longish bear trend is almost over! I projected a few months ago, that it would hit its lowest peak between early - middle October. My guess was around October 9.
After that, we should swing upwards to our previous high, at which point we will level out from selling pressure. But by then, its too late, the price will have sent people into a frenzy again, and Bitcoin will quickly launch towards the end of its current projected target of $112,000.
Target dates are based on a personal theory of wave cycle lengths increasing by 1.618x (not many measurements can be taken). However, this theory fits with current Bitcoin trend.
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BTC update: The Price has passed the previous resistance/high point (52k), which at this point we can say the bearish trend has reversed. We will see consolidation at this wall, the green line, which I think we should be able to break upwards out of. At this point, we should be able to hit the ATH one more time, or even higher - maybe 66k-70k. And at that point we will head back down. This will be healthy for the overall bull run.
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Here's a better overall look at the pattern, compared to the original post, along with the trendlines drawn in.
Obviously we are going down - because we can all see that. I even mapped it. It's super clear to see why:
*200 MA now positioned over btc price currently, Historically doesn’t do too well
This ALWAYS drops price to the metcalfe value (lowest price forward). We cannot deny history - price always corrects to these values. Typically takes 9 months. Should see Bottom in 3-6 months <b>worst case scenario<b>.
New address growth: slowing. Again - obvious call. Second-best indicator I have. Highly reliable.
September averaging -13% growth for Bitcoin since 2015
That being said....
All these negatives are temporary, and this is very short-term in the scheme of things. In 3-6 mos it will be an entirely different picture, with the scenario reversed and 80% chance of gains.
BTFD mentality is unbelievably strong. Limits downside. Add leverage and makes it hard for Bitcoin to "crash" below 30k. Price in 30s may be the last buying opportunity at those levels.
Looking forward, the LOWEST price going forward in December 2022 is 55k.
Central bank policy will not permit economic recessions to be deep or long, and it's getting more dovish. High "risk on" with asset allocation but real-world volatility validates Bitcoin 's use case.
WHAT THIS MEANS: Bitcoin is becoming more and more like a call option with limited downside and theoretical unlimited upside.
Which WILL create strong demand institutionally, so yeah I stick with my March 2022 prediction of 100k. But we’ll see
bed87
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@Shwayze, Except for the fact that the long-term chart itself calls for lower prices, have you seen for example this trader by the name BitFink? I think he's spot on for long term predictions. As opposed to the bulls who just give nonsensical projections and call for high numbers without looking at the chart. I thought Bitcoin typically goes back to the "previous high" from the past, that would mean we go as low as 20k or even 16-18k. I believe you that we will eventually go back up. But NOT before we see some very low bearish swings. A fake-out of a bear market if you will. Kind of like what happened in 2020, there could be another virus scare like before. But who knows? I don't have a crystal ball and neither does anyone else. I just like to say personally, I want to see things lower.
@bed87, There is #1, and #2 - Both times accurately forecasting each one of Bitcoins Downtrends, just for you! ;) I understand why you are more bearish on Bitcoin. I too wouldn't mind buying in lower, but since I was in the 2017 bull run, I realized 1 thing this time. Get in early, and get in big.
This is what I would do - I have read several studies on a Dollar cost Average plan with Bitcoin. Each one points out that the volatility of Bitcoin creates the ideal profits for anyone doing DCA. Even if they started at the top. For instance, someone who started investing at the top of BTC in 2017, would have had a 30% gain the following year, even though they started buying Bitcoin at $20,000, and the price was no where near that level.
I personally find this solution to be the BEST way to invest my own funds into Bitcoin.
Shwayze
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@bed87, Actually this better shows the extent of the perfect call for a downtrend the 2nd time. Haha.
bed87
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@Shwayze, Why wouldn't we at least go back to 30k area?
Shwayze
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@bed87, Check my comments - thats likely the lowest well go. And right now, BTC went under the 200 MA, went back up and bounced down off of it. This has historically always dropped down to metcalfes lowest value going forward. So that's why 30k comes into play.
And if we go down to 30k, then this model is broken, and we are extending it out a month or two extra. So November-December we start climbing.