So far, the bigger picture is still following the plan, moving towards the 4200 neckline again. is not great, but so far not bad as well and can be seen as normal in what looks like a right shoulder. This will attempt 99 :) to form an the since Dec. Read the previous parts of this 'Bitcoin's Big Correction or Trend Change?' to understand this better.
Short term, we want to see something like the chart on the left. Making a bigger here. So touching 4000/4020 again and then retest the support one more time around 3950/ 40 . If we see this happen without any strange moves, chances will be very high to see an attack of the 4200. As you know from my previous analysis, that if we see a touch of 4200ish, even when seeing a rejection there at first, i am quite sure it will break eventually. In this scenario, 4000 should be the low after touching the 4200ish.
One important note, if we do move up above 4000/4050, we need to see increase on the way up. Nothing big necessary, but it really has to increase compared to previous candles. The real jump can be postponed until a break of 4200ish. But then it has to be very big!
Part of previous analysis:
Yesterday we could see LTC' and ETH' getting very weak, breaking low time frame support. It also looked like Bitcoins 3800 would break, there were a few attempts even at the low, but they all failed. Since then, LTC' moved up quite strong again and ETH' a little bit. The whole crypto market (without Bitcoin ), the chart on the left, has moved up quite well since yesterday's low. After the break of that , the drop and now the retest, it is starting to look like the market maybe doesn't want to drop. It is still below that red resistance, which is THE level to break, but if bears were in full control, we usually see it drop faster than this. Not sure yet, but maybe the bulls are up to something. I am thinking this, because the Open Intrest on Bitmex went up a lot the past days. Almost at 500 mil now. I find it a bit remarkable, to see so many buyers (compared to the past 3/4 months) while the market is at a dangerous price and at a weak spot as well. Could be meaningless and just a lot of big crazy buyers trying something, but i give benefit of the doubt to the bulls now. Also because that 3800 simply did not break yesterday, even thought was decent at that moment.
Hope we don't see anything real happen coming 12 hours, then i will try to update again.
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New analysis, Total Crypto Market Cap:
For me it's simple now, i am looking up, as long as the green zones hold. If those break, we could see a dump happen. Something we have seen before past months.
ETH seems to have formed a channel now, still the weak link. Need to see that one show a bit more aggression from the bulls. Break of that red zone is important, otherwise this last move could be a bear flag.
So still a fight going on.
It is always a bit different my friend, but only time will tell by how much..
Not telling right or wrong, just telling you my view, but these are overbought situation to me (not showing pre 20K, because that was the hype).