botje11

Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change? Part 5

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Keeping this short for now, but will add more later today.

So far, the bigger picture is still following the plan, moving towards the 4200 neckline again. Volume is not great, but so far not bad as well and can be seen as normal in what looks like a right shoulder. This will attempt 99 :) to form an inverse H&S the since Dec. Read the previous parts of this 'Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change?' to understand this better.

Short term, we want to see something like the chart on the left. Making a bigger bull flag here. So touching 4000/4020 again and then retest the support one more time around 3950/ 40 . If we see this happen without any strange moves, chances will be very high to see an attack of the 4200. As you know from my previous analysis, that if we see a touch of 4200ish, even when seeing a rejection there at first, i am quite sure it will break eventually. In this scenario, 4000 should be the low after touching the 4200ish.


One important note, if we do move up above 4000/4050, we need to see volume increase on the way up. Nothing big necessary, but it really has to increase compared to previous candles. The real volume jump can be postponed until a break of 4200ish. But then it has to be very big!


Part of previous analysis:
Yesterday we could see LTC' and ETH' getting very weak, breaking low time frame support. It also looked like Bitcoins 3800 would break, there were a few attempts even at the low, but they all failed. Since then, LTC' moved up quite strong again and ETH' a little bit. The whole crypto market (without Bitcoin ), the chart on the left, has moved up quite well since yesterday's low. After the break of that wedge , the drop and now the retest, it is starting to look like the market maybe doesn't want to drop. It is still below that red resistance, which is THE level to break, but if bears were in full control, we usually see it drop faster than this. Not sure yet, but maybe the bulls are up to something. I am thinking this, because the Open Intrest on Bitmex went up a lot the past days. Almost at 500 mil now. I find it a bit remarkable, to see so many buyers (compared to the past 3/4 months) while the market is at a dangerous price and at a weak spot as well. Could be meaningless and just a lot of big crazy buyers trying something, but i give benefit of the doubt to the bulls now. Also because that 3800 simply did not break yesterday, even thought volume was decent at that moment.




Hope we don't see anything real happen coming 12 hours, then i will try to update again.


Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

Comment: New analysis, Total Crypto Market Cap:

Comment: Sorry wrong link, something went wrong.

New analysis, Total Crypto Market Cap:

Comment: Still looking stable and no big sudden moves. Volume is gone, but normal for a bull flag. Current move seems to be sloping down already, which is a small disappointment so far. I really want to see it touch the 4000ish again before testing the support again, like the blue line. ETH is a big weak link in the market, bit surprised, because after the 140/141 break, i expected more from it.

For me it's simple now, i am looking up, as long as the green zones hold. If those break, we could see a dump happen. Something we have seen before past months.

Comment: Out of nowhere, there were some big buyers getting in on Bitmex, eating away those big sell walls from 3970 up to the current price. Would not make sense to see it pop up now already, but from the looks of it, seems some people are not planning on waiting much longer. As i did mention, we need to see volume increase as we move up, what we are seeing now is exactly that. Important thing now is, that if we drop, the selling volume should not exceed this buying volume

Comment: New XRP analysis:

Comment: Bitcoin still looking good, so it was too early as mentioned to break up, now tested support again of this bull flag. So far a decent bounce up. Anyway, the low has to be set now, we should not make a new low again. It may take some time to really rally up, but that has to be the direction now. Breaking the 3925ish, probably means we are headed down again, possibly even a dump, since that is what this market loves, a 500 point dump in 2 seconds.

ETH seems to have formed a channel now, still the weak link. Need to see that one show a bit more aggression from the bulls. Break of that red zone is important, otherwise this last move could be a bear flag.

So still a fight going on.

Comment: Beginning to take too much time now. Yesterday it was dead as well most of the day, until that sudden move to 4010, could see something similar as well this time. But to be honest, not liking this at all. Starting to look too much like a bear flag on the lower time frame. So I would be careful at this point. A small push up above 3970/80 could change it again
Comment: New extra update analysis Bitcoin:

Comments

Simple as that
+4 Reply
@mbc47, Only thing that is missing is the price action falling to test the 200w MA again... BUT THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFEREtn
Reply
mbc47 This_Guhy
@This_Guhy, You are right. Had to re-post the idea and forgot. Yes, I do see a re-test of 200W MA. That is what the whole idea is about.
It is always a bit different my friend, but only time will tell by how much..
Reply
Volume is dying, almost as low as it was before dump from 6k. Also overbought on many big tf since february. Im not buying this.
+3 Reply
@Zakhal, which big TF are you referring to because on all the hourly (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour), 1-day, 1-week it is neutral.
+1 Reply
Zakhal UnknownUnicorn1780802
@UnknownUnicorn1780802, weekly, 6D, 5D...12 hours. Stokastic rsi has been around 80-100 for weeks. Also BB levels on most of them are overbought or close.
Reply
Weavs844 UnknownUnicorn1780802
@UnknownUnicorn1780802, I’m assuming he is referring to stoch. Has been a pretty good indicator on high TF.
Reply
botje11 Zakhal
@Zakhal, Volume is indeed very low and worrying, but i am not seeing anything overbought, expect Litcoin
+1 Reply
@botje11, Overbought and oversold levels are a fixed structure in the trading markets. On the RSI anything above .8 is considered overbought and anything below .2 is considered oversold. This is not a matter of opinion or feeling. What Zakhal is seeing is basic fundamental technical analysis.
Reply
botje11 Makingithappen
@Makingithappen, I know what they, but it's a matter of opinion. IMO, the current overbought is purely because of the way it's calculated. When zooming out, i would rather say it's oversold. Next to that, it can stay oversold/overbought for a long time. I remember many people saying during the 6K drop, at 4k and 5k levels, its oversold big time. It doesn't mean that much. The low volume is a very bad sign, which suggests it might be overbought. Or that it might still be too soon to break up.
Not telling right or wrong, just telling you my view, but these are overbought situation to me (not showing pre 20K, because that was the hype).
Reply
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