botje11

Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change? Part 5

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Keeping this short for now, but will add more later today.

So far, the bigger picture is still following the plan, moving towards the 4200 neckline again. Volume is not great, but so far not bad as well and can be seen as normal in what looks like a right shoulder. This will attempt 99 :) to form an inverse H&S the since Dec. Read the previous parts of this 'Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change?' to understand this better.

Short term, we want to see something like the chart on the left. Making a bigger bull flag here. So touching 4000/4020 again and then retest the support one more time around 3950/40. If we see this happen without any strange moves, chances will be very high to see an attack of the 4200. As you know from my previous analysis, that if we see a touch of 4200ish, even when seeing a rejection there at first, i am quite sure it will break eventually. In this scenario, 4000 should be the low after touching the 4200ish.



One important note, if we do move up above 4000/4050, we need to see volume increase on the way up. Nothing big necessary, but it really has to increase compared to previous candles. The real volume jump can be postponed until a break of 4200ish. But then it has to be very big!


Part of previous analysis:
Yesterday we could see LTC' and ETH' getting very weak, breaking low time frame support. It also looked like Bitcoins 3800 would break, there were a few attempts even at the low, but they all failed. Since then, LTC' moved up quite strong again and ETH' a little bit. The whole crypto market (without Bitcoin ), the chart on the left, has moved up quite well since yesterday's low. After the break of that wedge , the drop and now the retest, it is starting to look like the market maybe doesn't want to drop . It is still below that red resistance, which is THE level to break, but if bears were in full control, we usually see it drop faster than this. Not sure yet, but maybe the bulls are up to something. I am thinking this, because the Open Intrest on Bitmex went up a lot the past days. Almost at 500 mil now. I find it a bit remarkable, to see so many buyers (compared to the past 3/4 months) while the market is at a dangerous price and at a weak spot as well. Could be meaningless and just a lot of big crazy buyers trying something, but i give benefit of the doubt to the bulls now. Also because that 3800 simply did not break yesterday, even thought volume was decent at that moment.




Hope we don't see anything real happen coming 12 hours, then i will try to update again.


Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)


Comment: New analysis, Total Crypto Market Cap:

Comment: Sorry wrong link, something went wrong.

New analysis, Total Crypto Market Cap:

Comment: Still looking stable and no big sudden moves. Volume is gone, but normal for a bull flag. Current move seems to be sloping down already, which is a small disappointment so far. I really want to see it touch the 4000ish again before testing the support again, like the blue line. ETH is a big weak link in the market, bit surprised, because after the 140/141 break, i expected more from it.

For me it's simple now, i am looking up, as long as the green zones hold. If those break, we could see a dump happen. Something we have seen before past months.

Comment: Out of nowhere, there were some big buyers getting in on Bitmex, eating away those big sell walls from 3970 up to the current price. Would not make sense to see it pop up now already, but from the looks of it, seems some people are not planning on waiting much longer. As i did mention, we need to see volume increase as we move up, what we are seeing now is exactly that. Important thing now is, that if we drop, the selling volume should not exceed this buying volume

Comment: New XRP analysis:

Comment: Bitcoin still looking good, so it was too early as mentioned to break up, now tested support again of this bull flag. So far a decent bounce up. Anyway, the low has to be set now, we should not make a new low again. It may take some time to really rally up, but that has to be the direction now. Breaking the 3925ish, probably means we are headed down again, possibly even a dump, since that is what this market loves, a 500 point dump in 2 seconds.

ETH seems to have formed a channel now, still the weak link. Need to see that one show a bit more aggression from the bulls. Break of that red zone is important, otherwise this last move could be a bear flag.

So still a fight going on.

Comment: Beginning to take too much time now. Yesterday it was dead as well most of the day, until that sudden move to 4010, could see something similar as well this time. But to be honest, not liking this at all. Starting to look too much like a bear flag on the lower time frame. So I would be careful at this point. A small push up above 3970/80 could change it again
Comment: New extra update analysis Bitcoin:

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@botje11 Let's be honest
bulls are very weak and no volume is added to the market
There is a big drop in the way, and surely we'll reach the levels of 3400-3500 at once
This is the result of my experience of market behavior along with your technical analysis, because i don't have expert in technical
Reply
Morning! Thanks for your updates and honesty.

I've provided a thorough video analysis of my take on BTC, I discuss higher time frames, plus projects of gaps needing to be filled in between 4600 to 5600:
+1 Reply
Drop from high altitude incoming - ensure your parachutes are USDT-proved
Reply
mbc47 mbc47
Why are people so optimistic out of the blue?
Wait up folks, time to revisit some old places..
Reply
@mbc47, lol :)
Reply
mbc47 botje11
@botje11, I give it a week of trying the current levels...maybe we manage to up to 4250, but then .. hello 3555, and will stay there for weeks.

Reply
@mbc47, Of course i cant be sure, but for me, it's either a move up to 4400/4600 if we break 4100/4200. But has to happen now, don't think bull can hold these levels another day. Already taking too long. So it's either a pump or a dump coming 24h, i think :)
Reply
mbc47 botje11
@botje11, Thanks for the insight and all the great work you are doing!
I'm a buyer of course but buying low makes me feel much better. Go figure..
Reply
IRCSAS botje11
@botje11, we are nearst to your time position
Reply
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