Bitcoin has pushed into the 50K area while showing continual signs of hesitation. Is this the top? While there are no particular reversals or sell setups, the price level is a place for concern. One of our recent swing trades took about two and a half weeks to reach all 3 profit targets upon pushing through our third one at 48,650.
So Now What?
The Elliott Wave counts have been instrumental in providing perspective and confidence as far as managing our short term positions (swing trades). The entry at 33,650 was based on anticipating a Wave 5 of a broader 3 and Bitcoin agreed with that forecast. Now the concern is, when does this Wave 5 complete? What comes after a Wave 5 of an impulse? A corrective wave and in this situation that would be a broad Wave 4. (See August peak for Gold).
Keeping the wave count in mind helps to keep a tight gauge on risk. While it is possible for price to continue higher from here (next projection is 50K, then mid 50K Area), it is also equally possible to see a broad corrective wave begin. The price action will provide the clues so it really just becomes a matter of waiting for the right criteria to line up before entering into a new swing trade long. The long may be a trend continuation pattern OR it may be near the low of a broader retrace.
The key trend support is now 32,500. As long as price stays above this area, it is still within the broader bullish trend, even if a bearish formation develops. IF this level is taken out, then price is likely going into the broad Wave 4 which can persist for weeks or months.
While price stays above the 45K minor support, it is establishing a higher low formation and can lead to a higher high. This potential leg higher may be the minor 5 of 5 of 3. Where it peaks is anyone's GUESS. The key take away here is to practice cautious optimism and not get caught up in any over exaggerated hype or other emotional stimulus. Often when markets look their best, it is the worst time to assume risk. Most importantly, if you do buy into it on the next break out, and it fails, be prepared to take a small loss rather than getting caught in HOPE mode. Those who get caught at these highs are most likely to be at the mercy of the market, which often results in emotional decision making at the least opportune times.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you found it helpful.
I have to assume that as 'lack of confidence' in predicting future upward movement solidifies, that there will be a tendency towards bearish sentiment, until the point that we are back towards a more obvious bullish movement. If the majority of 'investors' in Bitcoin are 'following the leader', then we can assume that there is more likely to be bias towards strong/quick downward movement. As well, any unexpected strong upward movement (i.e. an Elong tweet) will result in FOMO. On Friday I did pare back some of my investments avoiding risk, but also aware that in doing so I could lose out on a few percent on the upside.
CryptoGuru369
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Wave 6!~
Clevortrevor
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Has BTC ever been in this situation before? Yes in 2017. But the big difference between then and now is the build out in technology we've seen and the big move from institutional investors. I'm new to this space, but from what I've read and listened to, this seems like the lower level of a big bull run. I thought $10,000 in August was the top. Who knows where the top is.
jlpayan
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@Clevortrevor, Do you think the Institutions dont take profits? Are they here to rise the price for you? The volume is decreasing. The price is overbought. Only can reach new ATH via twitter FOMO. There is no more fresh money to rise the price to the 50K. But don't worry, they will restart the price to 30K - 40K to make it more attractive. Trapping people in the ATH will be the basics for future price increases. Rinse and repeat.
When you lived the last bull run, you know where the tsunami sells approachs.
@jlpayan, did I say I bought in big after 40k? Nope. I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying, but to say that more corporations are not coming into crypto doesn't seem realistic.
@jlpayan, I agree with you and I wish we see a correction so I can have a chance for re-entry. However we are having this conversation since 18K. Price has been parabolic. People use TA to predict the price movement however this market is just manipulation , pump and dump , FOMO and not TA at all. So going up another 20K is equally valid despite all the overbought signs in TA.
PaulDenton
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@jlpayan, "Are they here to rise the price for you?" :D:D Well said, love it!
STPAUL007
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@jlpayan, It's too early to flash it down while FED is printing. Fresh money ? wtf are you talking about ? if apple with their cash flow announce BTC purchase it will be at 100k in no time. 30-40k no problem, 2-4 weeks and then 60k+ imminent in a freak show FEDonomy.