Prior to the FED meeting, we speculated that the rally could falter with another rate hike. However, after the 2.04% decline following the FED decision, Bitcoin erased its early losses and made a new high at 21 473$. That is a bullish development, although we still remain bearish for the medium and the long term. Indeed, after a brief period of bullishness, we are slowly but surely turning bearish on BTC in the short term as well. Accordingly, we stay committed to our price targets of 17 500$ and 15 000$.
Despite that, we can not ignore the prospect of rally continuation. Therefore, we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. Ideally, we would like to see a pick-up in volume and subsequent selling pressure to confirm our bearish bias. Contrarily, to support the opposite bullish view, we would like to see the price attempt to test resistance at 22 781$.
We would like to point out different relationships between the price and volume across various exchanges displayed in the illustrations below.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange FTX.
Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Binance.
Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Kraken.
Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows the relationship between the price and volume on the exchange Bitstamp.
Illustration 1.05 Illustration 1.05 shows the relationship between the price and volume in the futures market.
Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD flattens. RSI trends sideways, and Stochastic performed a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but shows signs of exhaustion.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic point to the upside, although they still remain within bearish zones. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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The price of Bitcoin dived below the sloping support, bolstering the bearish case.
There was a recent research article on newsbtc that showed over 50% of volume is due to illegal wash sales that are generated via bot scripts to buy/sell in order to prop up volume and therefore its price. The same article highlighted that, absent this fake volume, BTC’s price is closer to 12K. Incredible!
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@Free_Loader, Thank you for sharing this interesting information. Could you please send me the link to research into PM? I would gladly look at it.