The stop hunts on the left have become clear in hindsight, since we took a 1500/2000 point dive think there is no doubt about that assumption. Past days it looks a bit like we have seen a similar move. We do miss out on another clear stop hunt around 8300, but i have placed the second green at yesterday's high.
Assuming this theory is correct, we should not get above the 8100ish anymore, actually not even above that blue actually. If this plays out and we drop again, the same scenario's as mentioned in my previous analysis are in play. That is:
1) Making a real with the neckline around 7000 giving a target around 6000
2) Making a triangle, so bouncing up again from the 7500/7600 zone.
The 7700 seems to be the key now. If that one breaks and we see a high panic break of the support, the triangle version will probably fail. If we see normal , as we can see the past days with the 200/400 point drops, than we could see it turn up again. So is probably the best indicator here to follow in case we drop below the 7700.
In the middle we can see that which was the start of that big short squeeze rally back to the 8K's. It's support was at 7200. No assuming this short squeeze was forced, we can assume that if this level breaks, it will be a sell sign as well. Because there was good support there, so we should see the same people buying it up once again. So my assumption is, that if that 7200ish breaks, it will confirm the short squeeze rally was manipulation (to short at the highs) and that we will dump even more.
About the triangle, it's always important to see several touches of the high of a triangle formation. The move to 8300 can be seen as a touch of the triangle. So, if the market is able to break the 8100ish again and once again touch the 8300/8400, the triangle version will become more likely as well. I personally think it would be too soon to see it move up to 8400 within the coming day or 2. Think it would be much better to make another higher low first around 7500/7700 and then slowly attack the resistance again. So in other words, even if we see a outcome coming weeks, it should take another few days before we really break up.
Now it's easier to look down (at least short term), as long as we stay below the 8100ish. If this level breaks, doesn't mean we will simply go up, but see it as neutral ground then and that the analysis will become less likely.
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On the right we can also see it bounced up precisely from the triangle support line. Keeping the triangle still alive at this point. As long as we stay below the 7800/7850, chances for an even bigger drop are still higher. If the 7850ish breaks, bears will still be slightly in favor. Above 8100ish we can think the bulls are in favor again.
Usually, to see if the triangle is real, it's better to see another retest at least. So better to just go back up to 8000. See it as if the market wants to double (or triple) check if the support is real before going up again. If it just goes up from here, it could be just shorts taking profit again, which isn't the best foundation. Just look at some triangles (no matter which asset) on similar time frame and you will see what i mean with this.
So i think, the bulls want to see something like the blue line. The bears simply want to see a bear flag and the 7500 breaking
The first red needs to break quickly and the one around 7800/50 as well eventually. This last one is an important one for the bulls.
For the bears:
If it stays below the first red zone around 7700, it can easily drop again. If we see it drop towards the low again without even breaking the 7700 first, it will become very likely to see the support around 7550/500 break and seeing it dump even more.
If the bulls can prevent a drop and keep price inside the triangle for like another day or so, then we could see it bounce up eventually. So short term, bears are clearly in favor
Also that curved line on the left might have some weight on the market as well. So a break of 8000 will be a decent step for the bulls. The 8100 is still an important level to break. If that one breaks, chances will increase for the bulls.
Also have a small channel of this move up today. But even if it breaks, there is room for a higher low around 7720/60. A break of that level won't be any good for the bulls.
So bears are still in favor and will be as long as we stay below the 8100ish.
Some alts have improved but from my small list more are still behind. Also seems we have that curved blue line as well now, something to watch. Only real sensible thing i can say is, that if the 8100 breaks, we need even more volume. Should reach the orange circle on the left chart. Otherwise it would not feel good and real enough for me. First support is around 7900 now and i think a more important one at 7800.