BTC: 21.4k or lower? Seven-wave crash structure: Update
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1) The timing is guesswork, even with the Fibonacci time tool overlaid. The main point is that I still see these levels as being in play.
2) In terms of Wyckoff, I don't think we've seen the Seller's Climax (SC) yet. What I think we've seen, according to the seven-wave crash structure count, is Wave 5, roll up to Wave 6 (which includes an ABC Elliot corrective wave), and now BTC is printing the macro Wave 7.
3) The macro Wave 7 should come in below macro Wave 5, and repeats the entire seven-wave structure. It appears to me that sub-wave 1 and sub-wave 2 are in, and BTC is currently printing sub-wave 3, down to around 33.2, which also can be seen as the bottom of a channel, with the whole channel constituting a bear flag.
4) From Wave 3, I will be looking for a roll up to Wave 4, at around 37. From there, I would expect a key pivot point, and for BTC to break to the downside out of the channel, reaching between 27.2 and 22, to complete Wave 5. The reason sub-wave 5 is difficult to pinpoint precisely is we don't know whether the macro Wave 5 will turn out to have landed, relative to the base, on the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci of the whole seven-wave (Wave C of the ABC correction) movement. So the final macro Wave 7 could land anywhere between 21.4 and 16.9. Either one, or in-between.
5) The possible landing points for sub-wave 5 and sub-wave 6 are marked on the chart. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in higher, at 25.6 most likely. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in lower, at 22 most likely. Likewise, if the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in higher, between 28.8 and 31.1. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in lower, between 26 and 28.8.
6) Depending on where sub-wave 5 comes in, we might be able to better estimate which of these levels for the macro Wave 7 will be hit.
7) It's also possible that none of this plays out: that the bottom of the channel is respected, and BTC is simply retesting that line. We really won't know for sure until and if that channel is broken to the downside, after sub-wave 4 comes in.
8) That said, so far, from a fractal perspective and a Fibonacci sequencing perspective, I do think BTC has one major leg down still to complete. And I think this leg down will constitute the Seller's Climax, from a Wyckoff Distribution Phase perspective.
9) It's very possible that we see a subsequent retest of where macro Wave 7 lands, which would constitute a Secondary Test in Phase B of an emerging Wyckoff Accumulation Phase.
10) If Wyckoff's Accumulation Schematic One turns out to characterise the subsequent accumulation phase, we could see a slightly deeper reach down beyond even that Secondary Test, which would constitute the "Spring" of Phase C in that schematic. That would be a month or two out from where we are.
Feel free to comment.
1) The timing is guesswork, even with the Fibonacci time tool overlaid. The main point is that I still see these levels as being in play.
2) In terms of Wyckoff, I don't think we've seen the Seller's Climax (SC) yet. What I think we've seen, according to the seven-wave crash structure count, is Wave 5, roll up to Wave 6 (which includes an ABC Elliot corrective wave), and now BTC is printing the macro Wave 7.
3) The macro Wave 7 should come in below macro Wave 5, and repeats the entire seven-wave structure. It appears to me that sub-wave 1 and sub-wave 2 are in, and BTC is currently printing sub-wave 3, down to around 33.2, which also can be seen as the bottom of a channel, with the whole channel constituting a bear flag.
4) From Wave 3, I will be looking for a roll up to Wave 4, at around 37. From there, I would expect a key pivot point, and for BTC to break to the downside out of the channel, reaching between 27.2 and 22, to complete Wave 5. The reason sub-wave 5 is difficult to pinpoint precisely is we don't know whether the macro Wave 5 will turn out to have landed, relative to the base, on the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci of the whole seven-wave (Wave C of the ABC correction) movement. So the final macro Wave 7 could land anywhere between 21.4 and 16.9. Either one, or in-between.
5) The possible landing points for sub-wave 5 and sub-wave 6 are marked on the chart. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in higher, at 25.6 most likely. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in lower, at 22 most likely. Likewise, if the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in higher, between 28.8 and 31.1. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in lower, between 26 and 28.8.
6) Depending on where sub-wave 5 comes in, we might be able to better estimate which of these levels for the macro Wave 7 will be hit.
7) It's also possible that none of this plays out: that the bottom of the channel is respected, and BTC is simply retesting that line. We really won't know for sure until and if that channel is broken to the downside, after sub-wave 4 comes in.
8) That said, so far, from a fractal perspective and a Fibonacci sequencing perspective, I do think BTC has one major leg down still to complete. And I think this leg down will constitute the Seller's Climax, from a Wyckoff Distribution Phase perspective.
9) It's very possible that we see a subsequent retest of where macro Wave 7 lands, which would constitute a Secondary Test in Phase B of an emerging Wyckoff Accumulation Phase.
10) If Wyckoff's Accumulation Schematic One turns out to characterise the subsequent accumulation phase, we could see a slightly deeper reach down beyond even that Secondary Test, which would constitute the "Spring" of Phase C in that schematic. That would be a month or two out from where we are.
Feel free to comment.
Comment:
29 May 2021 09:52:16: Fibonacci sequences and fractals are at best just flagpoles on a map. Doesn't mean price will ever get there. But for what it's worth (and likely not much), price action currently suggests a narrowing on the middle of a prior range, now between 20.4 and 18 as the base. Interested in anyone's thoughts - especially those in disagreement.
Comment:
31 May 2021 12:08:59: Watch out for rejection or continuance around the 37-38 level.
Comment:
31 May 2021 13:08:13: May not happen, but this is more or less what I expect to happen. Local H&S, and significant drop (sub-wave 5), probably by Thursday, with a fairly decent relief rally through the weekend (sub-wave 6), and calls that the bottom is in, only for the last thrust down (sub-wave 7) to follow, marking the true base of the larger ABC movement. Again: just an expectation. Anything can happen, except left.
Comment:
02 Jun 2021 14:17:57: I see a structure that isn't complete, but with the 50 weekly EMA providing support, and despite that the 200 weekly EMA aligns with where a complete structure might end, we're fairly close to breaking point where the chart would be suggesting to flip bias. Below in the circle is where I have thought we are relative to a completed seven-wave crash structure.
Comment:
03 Jun 2021 12:39:24: These last few days I've been looking back through BTC's price history to try to find ABC correction structures and see how the end played out. There are actually not too many of them. Most corrections have been v-bottoms, which is a seven-wave crash structure immediately reversed to the upside. An ABC pattern is two seven-wave crash structures with a corrective wave in-between. At any rate, the evidence is inconclusive. The descent into the bear market following the 2017 peak was an ABC, but very drawn out over time. Months, not weeks. May to July 2017 was also an ABC pattern, but also very extended horizontally, and so not easy to drawn conclusions from. I remain in a dilemma, because it's hard for me to ignore what I see as an incomplete crashing structure, while at the same time, the circle on this screenshot does break a clean logic, and BTC has currently penetrated and may well close a 4hr candle above the weekly 34 EMA, which is an important level to reclaim to the upside. BTC is also above the 0.786 of a local Fibonacci, which might suggest a breakout. Personally, I'm not sure there are ever "fakeouts" on charts. Retrospectively, many fakeouts actually appear to be part of a logical structure that just wasn't apparent at the time. Is this to say there is no manipulation? For sure, no. In that sense, fakeouts exist. And right now, there is a slight uptick in top trader (high volume orders) short positions, a downturn in top trader longs, while absolute longs are increasing, shorts decreasing, suggesting a possible bull trap. But this situation could turn on a dime. What is clear is that overall volume is not particularly impressive. Currently I'm just watching the market, to see what it wants to do.
Comment:
08 Jun 2021 06:17:52: There's too much uncertainty to project with any degree of confidence where the base will come in, but for what it's worth, these are the levels I'm roughly looking at currently. The ABCDE that marked a period of sideways consolidation went on far longer than I would have imagined. I expected a roll up from Wave 5 to 6, and a fairly swift continuance down. On the one hand, the size of the bear flag that was printing in Wave 6 is such that one might expect a dramatic drop now. On the other hand, the beginning of Wave 7 (if that is what is currently being printed) has been characterised by apparent parity between selling and buying. It will take a dramatic and concerted push down now to see this wave now come in line with the original levels projected. But perhaps sub-wave 5 is indeed dramatic. It's also possible that we're simply seeing a double-bottom, and that sub-29k never arrives. I continue to watch price action. In the yellow bands in this screenshot are existing CME gaps that beg to be filled. The bottom of the logarithmic growth curve currently sits at 18.4k.
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