As I said in my last posts, where I called short and a downward break of the descending triangle that was formed since december 2017 here:
and here:
The bottom could be located anywhere between $3000-$5000, with higher odds toward $5000 and very low odds around $3000. However, no one can possible know where the real bottom is.
I have spent the better part of this year in fiat, so now it is time to look for an entry point.
If you followed my previous advises you should have been immune to drops since $8400. Please remember that, yes, these are only advises and you do have to do your own research, but also bear in mind that unlike 90% of the traders on tradingview I do execute the trades I suggest. Most traders don't execute their trades while they suggest other people to do so only because it's what they would like to see happen.
With that said, I posted an update yesterday in my previous chart (from a couple of months back where I successfully predicted the downward break of the descending triangle) and I mentioned that the bottom could be "guessed" when a divergence in price can be spotted on higher time-frames (daily chart). In fact, daily RSI is in EXTREME OVERSOLD conditions, something that hasn't been seen since 2015 at least.
Now, imho, the two following scenarios could happen, both bullish:
1. it is very likely that a corrective rally could occur (could also be a sideways movement that pulls up the RSI, while price stays stagnant), followed by another drop in price. This time RSI and or MACD will not fall past the current values (bullish divergence). This could represent a slow recovery toward $8000 and past it.
2. A rapid increase in price which will slowly bring RSI back up, and unlike the past few months will leave room for a rally past $8000 and maybe even $10000. This is likely since the current state of the indicators are optimal for a "spring" rally (creating a V shaped low). However, this can only happen on a squeeze or a high volume increase (has to be very fast) to keep the increase of the RSI as slow as possible.
Can price sink from here to even $2000-$3000? Possible, but unlikely. It will crash and destroys indicators to level previously unseen. Plus now everyone is bearish, shorts will stack, people are going to call the end of times, tradingview will be full of posts and charts of people calling $2000, etc, etc. And more often than not the opposite occurs.
There are divergences at the moment on the lower time frames, so hopefully one of these scenarios will play out.
Again, I could be wrong, so do your own research.
and here:
The bottom could be located anywhere between $3000-$5000, with higher odds toward $5000 and very low odds around $3000. However, no one can possible know where the real bottom is.
I have spent the better part of this year in fiat, so now it is time to look for an entry point.
If you followed my previous advises you should have been immune to drops since $8400. Please remember that, yes, these are only advises and you do have to do your own research, but also bear in mind that unlike 90% of the traders on tradingview I do execute the trades I suggest. Most traders don't execute their trades while they suggest other people to do so only because it's what they would like to see happen.
With that said, I posted an update yesterday in my previous chart (from a couple of months back where I successfully predicted the downward break of the descending triangle) and I mentioned that the bottom could be "guessed" when a divergence in price can be spotted on higher time-frames (daily chart). In fact, daily RSI is in EXTREME OVERSOLD conditions, something that hasn't been seen since 2015 at least.
Now, imho, the two following scenarios could happen, both bullish:
1. it is very likely that a corrective rally could occur (could also be a sideways movement that pulls up the RSI, while price stays stagnant), followed by another drop in price. This time RSI and or MACD will not fall past the current values (bullish divergence). This could represent a slow recovery toward $8000 and past it.
2. A rapid increase in price which will slowly bring RSI back up, and unlike the past few months will leave room for a rally past $8000 and maybe even $10000. This is likely since the current state of the indicators are optimal for a "spring" rally (creating a V shaped low). However, this can only happen on a squeeze or a high volume increase (has to be very fast) to keep the increase of the RSI as slow as possible.
Can price sink from here to even $2000-$3000? Possible, but unlikely. It will crash and destroys indicators to level previously unseen. Plus now everyone is bearish, shorts will stack, people are going to call the end of times, tradingview will be full of posts and charts of people calling $2000, etc, etc. And more often than not the opposite occurs.
There are divergences at the moment on the lower time frames, so hopefully one of these scenarios will play out.
Again, I could be wrong, so do your own research.
Comment:
Boy have I underestimated the magnitude of the sell pressure. Sold yesterday a bit at a loss, luckily not too bad. Going back to my first idea now I do believe we are going to see the worst case scenario of that chart which was $3000 as a potential bottom, (best case was $5000).
I bought back in today. The knife can pierce through my hand, but I bullish for the next month or so.