Hopefully everyones been having a prospering month of trading, today we're going to review BTC.
Key Notes:
1) We have bearish divergence on VFI, RSI, MACD 2) Volume has died down at a key level, the 0.65 of the bearish impulse from 3/5 3) We have been unable to clear the 0.618 - 0.65 zone, with 5 weeks of upward movement, a strong dollar, and the stall at this critical level, I am anticipating a red week ahead.
Targets / Timeframe:
Bullish Outcome: Unlikely to have continued upward movement, and if we do, it will most likely be a bull trap.
1) If we continue upwards, I predict we will have a bull trap in the $10200-10300 range, whatever you do, do not purchase in this zone. 2) If we continue to consolidate in this zone, we need to blast through the $10200-10300 range very quickly, BTC can't afford another new range zone at this level.
Bearish Outcome: I am anticipating a red week for the week of 5-6 to 5-13.
1) I expect a sharp retrace to begin no later than Sunday evening towards the weekly close, or within a few hours after. 2) I expect price will reach the target zone of 8587-8910
We also have an upcoming golden cross, and this could change the dynamic of the market and I will update accordingly.
As always, upon 20 likes I will continue to update this idea, and if you value my content please support me by hitting the follow button.
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Good morning traders,
BTC is acting as anticipated, the 1-2hr charts are showing signs of reversals, however I will not purchase here. We may see a re-test of the 4hr 50 EMA to .236 zone (9412-9479 zone located in red box on my chart). If we do, I anticipate rejection at this level, which will then cause a sharper sell off.
Additionally, if we observe volume we can see that we actually haven't had our large sell off just yet, usually, they will wait until it is on top of a support, fill their shorts, and then dump. In this case, I am expecting that dump to happen on the 0.5 @9062, I could be wrong, but that's my guess on the current situation.
If we manage to break the 4hr 50 EMA and that resistance cluster at the .236 (9479), I will most likely switch from bearish, and re-enter the market.
Until then, it's currently on track and acting as I anticipated.
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Good morning traders,
Once again, as anticipated, the 9410-9479 zone was tested as I mentioned yesterday, and rejected as predicted.
We now have fast ema bearish crossings on the 4 hour, and we are showing 1hr 8 EMA rejection (very bearish bias).
RSI momentum confirms further loss of strength.
The only bullish sign is a recycled TD 13 reversal count on the hourly, but this does not hold much weight with me.
The next 6-12 hours we will most likely test the lower zones (8900-9100).
We've entered into the buy zone over night, consider anything in the 8's as a good buy, remember, I'm still a bull, and if we see 8600-8900 hold, we will be going to 11.7, just a matter of time. If these zones fail however, BTC should see new lows.
Key Notes:
1)We're beginning to see reversal signs, we've double bottomed on the RSI on the 2 HR. 2) Bulls need to break 9185 (lets say 9200) with some conviction, if they manage to do that, I will most likely purchase in. 3) If bulls fail again, I anticipate further sell off into the prime target zone.
I personally, am purchasing at the lower 8900's, there is *alot* of support between 8850-8900, so I'd rather get my buys filled, than not. If the price does drive a hundred or two hundred dollars lower, I've already prepared myself mentally for that.
If we do begin trading lower than 8600, then we may have issues and I might look to exit the market, but one step at a time.
I wish everyone a prosperous day of trading, and may your cup be filleth'ed ;)
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Be careful as volume is not indicative of a breakout, I am still waiting.
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Good evening traders,
As mentioned this morning I was not confident in the breakout volume, and as we can see, my suspicions were warranted.
Key Notes:
1) I will be an interested buyer if two things happen, either a higher low with RSI finding support; or a high volume break upwards. 2) My targets for this trade will be the 9500-9600 zone. 3) We may retrace before those targets are hit, so I will only purchase if my criteria is met, otherwise, I'm still shopping for a deal in my original target zone.
We're still in the no trade zone, if you are trading in this zone, just be aware of the risks.
Key Notes:
1)Last night on stream I mentioned a high volume break of vegas tunnel and I'd be interested in buying for a test @ 9500-9600, however no volume is in the market, but we did float above it, I am not interested in buying with no momentum at these levels.
2) We can see on the momentum cluster on the chart below, while we are getting higher lows, and momentum is staying up, we can see its currently in the process of dying on the Stoch RSI, we have a triple top on traditional RSI, and we are getting higher highs, with high prices, this is bearish divergence. This very well may continue to float higher and trap some buyers in the 9500-9600 zone, however I am not interested in taking that risk. If you are an aggressive trader, this may be a profitable entry for a sell towards 9479-9600, but be mindful that the market can turn on a dime.
With that in mind, I'll be watching for a rejection between 9412-9479, if we manage to break those levels with volume, I will most likely purchase back into the market, until then, still no trade for me.
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Good evening traders,
Hopefully everyone erred on the side of caution and didn't get burned buying prematurely.
Key Notes:
1) If we continue the dump within the next 2-4 hours, I will look to buy in the 8900 zone. 2) If we retrace upwards here, which is a possibility as we're oversold on multiple timeframes, the depth of that retrace will determine my buy zone. If we do have an upward move here, I'm anticipating rejection @ 9200 and if that happens, then the support zone @ 8957 will most likely not hold.
As a result, I'm waiting on 2 things:
A) How deep of a bounce (if any) we see here B) When the move downward ultimately continues.
Targets:
1) If we resume moving down in the next few hours I will look to purchase around 8950. 2) If we have a 4-6 hour period of sideways trading / shallow bounce upwards, I will be looking to purchase lower in the $8701-8860 zone.
I will post a new analysis tomorrow if you didn't catch my live stream, but I am in the market and I'm looking for a reversal upwards, with range trading going into the weekend. We should have a red week (trading below 9800) through Sunday.
I'll update more tomorrow, and if it floats lower, I wouldn't worry too much. As long as $8634 holds, BTC has an opportunity to reverse upwards, and in my opinion, it will.
Great prediction! everything happening the way you posted. BTC is now at 8550. Thanks a million for saving us entering into FOMO and buying. Please keep suggesting us right time entry. Waiting for your next post. You are a gem!!!!
Julescape
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Good insights @ant187 keep us updated. We novices are tempted to buy back in now, but your advice helps any premature action.
ant187
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@Julescape, This is an enticing zone to enter, and as I mentioned above, if it clears that 9479 zone, this would then have been the ideal zone to buy. Based on volume analysis, trend strength and price action however, I feel it would be a gamble. While there is a high probability we go up from here (we're at 9250 at time of this), it's simply not guaranteed, if it does indeed go up from this level, I would frontload my sell at 9400.
However, seeing as I still believe my original analysis is on track, and we haven't seen the large volume sell off yet, I will simply follow my trading rules I have set for myself and wait for confirmations.
ant187
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@Julescape, Seeing as Stoch, stoch rsi, rsi, was all oversold on the hourly, I am guilty of taking a 30% position, for a quick scalp on a few hundred dollar profit. I am however back into fiat again.
I agree. Many people, including myself, sold too early and looking for good point of re-entry. Not gonna risk buying the top of the 4 hour RSI with bearish divergence.
vatsa
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Yes, as you said, the price is now around 8700. What a great prediction!!! You are amazing!!! Keep it up.