Bitcoin (BTC): Long and Enduring Process

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I've been waiting to post an update on BTC because there are dramatic developments in the space. We have finally seen the capitulation I've laid out over the last few months and now it's time to reassess.

Have we reached a Long Term Bottom, is BTC headed for New All-Time Highs soon?

Likely, No.

Crypto for the first time in its lifetime has found itself in the middle of an Economic Crisis. Not just a crisis in one country, but the entire World.

This led to LUNA's collapse, which influenced Three Arrows Capital to become insolvent, along with Celcius freezing all assets and locking all capital from anyone holding an account.

You can file this down as FUD but I will remind you, that these are the industry leaders. The pioneers that were supposed to lead the evolution of Crypto, yet they chose Greed over the health of the future.

These are just the ones we know about, the ripple effects will likely create waves for some time to come. There were 100's of Billions lost in this disaster.

This is represented by the Total Market Cap here which has found itself on the 200W MA with an astounding 75% drawdown:

And we aren't even in the "Recession" yet. Projections have grown to 50% likelihood a Recession is inevitable.

To look at the situation objectively im not going to make any hard predictions, but rather, give clean criteria for short-term upside or downside for now.

If you look at the chart above, I have outlined a Blue Channel that is very important for BTC .

IF the price manages to close ABOVE the bottom of the Blue Channel, then Short-term upside is likely.

IF the price manages to close BELOW the bottom of the Blue Channel, then Short-term downside is likely.

There are two ways to draw this chart, both represent the same levels but suggest slightly different things:

If you notice in this one, you can see just how bad of a spot BTC is in currently. It not only broke down from the bottom of the Decending Channel it was in, but now it is bearishly retesting this area.

But again, the criteria remain the same.

This is a time where things outside of Crypto are going to continue to affect the space, so if you're currently basing your perspective on just Crypto-related elements, you will find the next few months+ to be very confusing.
Comment: I realize I left this post off implying that forces outside of Crypto are going to continue to weigh on the market, so I thought Id link what I meant by that. Hopefully, this gives a greater perspective:

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