If the scenario from 2013 repeats the first fall will be approximately -70% from 40 000 to 12000
But big fall could come if some "black Swan" news appear, e.g big exchange or wallet becomes insolvent and fails in bankruptcy.
The big crush could be between 240 000 and 24 000 from middle of 2018 till middle of 2019
There are a lot of black money in south korea, including money from russia and north korea.
And this players are now trying to escape regulation buying bitcoin before Korea starts the regulate the market https://cointelegraph.com/news/south-korean-financial-authorities-plan-to-regulate-bitcoin-exchanges-soon
We will soon a "regulaton" wave over the all bitcoin exchanges all over the world because no any goverment could let 200 Billion Dollar market stay deregulated.