Hi turning mecard is back! yes, we dropped, dropped. but this was the drop i was waiting for, and we still have room, much room
to go up if we do not break below 5100/5200, bitfinex. i am not letting down hopes for end of year bull run, not just yet. it needs to bounce up if this needs to happen at the moment.
so lets see the 4hr chart. we have 21ema at 5750, 50ema at 5990/6000, 100ema at 6190 area.
now, at this level daily rsi below 20, and hourly's making divergence you need to see that btc is trying its move up. but how it does it, there are rules.
1. btc tends to break 4hr 21ema, 50ema, first, then it drops to support, and it goes for 4hr 100ema, and daily 21ema, 50ema, 100ema.
2.btc wants to make bull divergence in that little bounces and drops, from 4hr to daily. it 4hr divergence is made in long time period it gets more stronger with more volume, if daily bull divergence gets made in week~2week time period, it gets more stronger.
these are some of the rules that i have seen how btc moves, when it hits low bottoms like this. now, people would say btc would go to 4k, or 3k, BUT NOT JUST NOW!
this is because in the log chart, btc has not broken its long term uptrendline, which, not at 5150/5200(bitfinex). so, before that breaks down, we must think that it will bounce up. BTC has made a NEW LOW, and when new low is made it goes up before anything of that happens.
so unless 5150/5200 breaks down, with heavy volume in the coming days, do not stoploss all your trades.
now, for i see, with how btc makes a uptrend, short or not, it will try to break 4hr 21ema, onto daily and so on.
this is what btc did last june, when it first visited 5700 area(green circle). it tried to break 4hr 21ema, 50ema first, but came down again to support zone and double bottom. and made a 4hr, daily divergence, which made a run up to daily 21ema, 50ema, 100ema.
so basically, what i think this will do is what it did in last june.
so this week i think trading range, in bitfinex is around 5700/5800(or even 5900) at top, but i think it will drop after some consolidation to 5400/5300 area, and double bottom. if that happens, i believe, daily rsi since it is under 20, will go little over 30, but not reaching 40 and come down. daily rsi will make a divergence i believe, when, we visit 5750~5900 area and drop.
but after that i believe btc will make a run towards 6k, and even to 6350/6400 area where it is the top line of the descending triangle. this is a very logical pattern of what btc does. and it drops again, but IT COULD MAKE AN INVERSE H&S PATTERN, where we could make a big run up above, and above.
so this week trading range will be 5300(bottom 5200/5150 at least)~~5900 area. next week after double bottom of support, we can see 6k, and first week of december could bring us more higher to 6300 area. at that point we can break upwards, or we can breakdown back to 5500/5600 area. but if we hold 5500/5600, it means inverse h&s pattern is made, and we can have a good run. or this pattern can be invalidated if we drop further.
IF WE DROP BELOW THEN 5100/5200, BITFINEX, WE MUST STOPLOSS 100% OF COINS. this will mean that 2014 chart is in play for us, where 21/50ema deadcross weekly will bring up 90% or more btc retracement to 2k, 3k area. so if we break the uptrendline, below chart can be in play.
in terms of weekly rsi, btc would want to go to oversold area under 30 in weekly.if that happens, i believe 4k is not bottom, we go to 2k, or 3k, even double bottom there, and bear market goes on for more 6month or a year.
so safe to play this is we sell, or stoploss, or profit some coins if 4hr bull div-->daily bull div is made and we go to 6200/6300 area in coming weeks. or, we cutloss right away when uptrend line is broken down. cash is the power for us at the moment, anyhow.
price can always break down under 5k coming week. so, keep an eye on it, if bitfinex under 5300/and even 5100, i believe that
invalidated this whole uptrend process, which, bears will take 100% control dropping, with daily rsi under 30.
i have 80% of my positions in steem dollar, 5% in siacoin, 5% in stratis, 5% in IQ, 5% in nem and some other coins. still not quite feeling the loss, because steem dollar is keeping its price firmly without dropping too much.
trading plans for btc longs are
1. open longs
btc(bitfinex)-ladder down buying
5350/5400/5500(at 5600 do not buy yet, if is only for scalping yes)
stoploss:under 5300(5300 is triangle bottom, 5180/5200 is untrendline bottom. so you can stoploss at 5180/5200, but if 5300 breaks it might just collapse)
sell:5800/6100/6300 area
2.open shorts
if btc reaches full capacity with its indicators, above levels i can think about this, but no, not attractive.open shorts when uptrendline is broken down(5100/5200) it confirms with 4hr, daily candle targeting 4k area
to go up if we do not break below 5100/5200, bitfinex. i am not letting down hopes for end of year bull run, not just yet. it needs to bounce up if this needs to happen at the moment.
so lets see the 4hr chart. we have 21ema at 5750, 50ema at 5990/6000, 100ema at 6190 area.
now, at this level daily rsi below 20, and hourly's making divergence you need to see that btc is trying its move up. but how it does it, there are rules.
1. btc tends to break 4hr 21ema, 50ema, first, then it drops to support, and it goes for 4hr 100ema, and daily 21ema, 50ema, 100ema.
2.btc wants to make bull divergence in that little bounces and drops, from 4hr to daily. it 4hr divergence is made in long time period it gets more stronger with more volume, if daily bull divergence gets made in week~2week time period, it gets more stronger.
these are some of the rules that i have seen how btc moves, when it hits low bottoms like this. now, people would say btc would go to 4k, or 3k, BUT NOT JUST NOW!
this is because in the log chart, btc has not broken its long term uptrendline, which, not at 5150/5200(bitfinex). so, before that breaks down, we must think that it will bounce up. BTC has made a NEW LOW, and when new low is made it goes up before anything of that happens.
so unless 5150/5200 breaks down, with heavy volume in the coming days, do not stoploss all your trades.
now, for i see, with how btc makes a uptrend, short or not, it will try to break 4hr 21ema, onto daily and so on.
this is what btc did last june, when it first visited 5700 area(green circle). it tried to break 4hr 21ema, 50ema first, but came down again to support zone and double bottom. and made a 4hr, daily divergence, which made a run up to daily 21ema, 50ema, 100ema.
so basically, what i think this will do is what it did in last june.
so this week i think trading range, in bitfinex is around 5700/5800(or even 5900) at top, but i think it will drop after some consolidation to 5400/5300 area, and double bottom. if that happens, i believe, daily rsi since it is under 20, will go little over 30, but not reaching 40 and come down. daily rsi will make a divergence i believe, when, we visit 5750~5900 area and drop.
but after that i believe btc will make a run towards 6k, and even to 6350/6400 area where it is the top line of the descending triangle. this is a very logical pattern of what btc does. and it drops again, but IT COULD MAKE AN INVERSE H&S PATTERN, where we could make a big run up above, and above.
so this week trading range will be 5300(bottom 5200/5150 at least)~~5900 area. next week after double bottom of support, we can see 6k, and first week of december could bring us more higher to 6300 area. at that point we can break upwards, or we can breakdown back to 5500/5600 area. but if we hold 5500/5600, it means inverse h&s pattern is made, and we can have a good run. or this pattern can be invalidated if we drop further.
IF WE DROP BELOW THEN 5100/5200, BITFINEX, WE MUST STOPLOSS 100% OF COINS. this will mean that 2014 chart is in play for us, where 21/50ema deadcross weekly will bring up 90% or more btc retracement to 2k, 3k area. so if we break the uptrendline, below chart can be in play.
in terms of weekly rsi, btc would want to go to oversold area under 30 in weekly.if that happens, i believe 4k is not bottom, we go to 2k, or 3k, even double bottom there, and bear market goes on for more 6month or a year.
so safe to play this is we sell, or stoploss, or profit some coins if 4hr bull div-->daily bull div is made and we go to 6200/6300 area in coming weeks. or, we cutloss right away when uptrend line is broken down. cash is the power for us at the moment, anyhow.
price can always break down under 5k coming week. so, keep an eye on it, if bitfinex under 5300/and even 5100, i believe that
invalidated this whole uptrend process, which, bears will take 100% control dropping, with daily rsi under 30.
i have 80% of my positions in steem dollar, 5% in siacoin, 5% in stratis, 5% in IQ, 5% in nem and some other coins. still not quite feeling the loss, because steem dollar is keeping its price firmly without dropping too much.
trading plans for btc longs are
1. open longs
btc(bitfinex)-ladder down buying
5350/5400/5500(at 5600 do not buy yet, if is only for scalping yes)
stoploss:under 5300(5300 is triangle bottom, 5180/5200 is untrendline bottom. so you can stoploss at 5180/5200, but if 5300 breaks it might just collapse)
sell:5800/6100/6300 area
2.open shorts
if btc reaches full capacity with its indicators, above levels i can think about this, but no, not attractive.open shorts when uptrendline is broken down(5100/5200) it confirms with 4hr, daily candle targeting 4k area
Comment:
so for bitmex users, you can buy from 5200~5300 area for longs. and under 5176 can be stoploss. 4hr div is made in short term, but it would need to make this in weekly term to go higher. or, if we break down previous bottom price, that means uptrend is invalidated so take close look this week guys.
Comment:
so this 5400 area, bitfinex, is the third time the falling wedge from feb has touched and technically this should be the low set. however, if we break down there will be not many patterns to help our uptrend. so we are still in verge of low set, or new low can come at anytime.
Comment:
the fall that i have been waiting for. longs filled in at 5205/5220 bitmex, bought some alt coins. this drop, until now, i believe is for bull div. so you can buy, but if brown line is broken down you can sell, stoploss.
Comment:
btc daily rsi level hit 16, this i see the lowest in history, the same as 2015 aug. so, this is bearish, but this is also time to bet buying.
Comment:
however, weekly rsi can be seen as falling channel. i think we hit the left line, which we can expect some bounce to yellow box if price holds.
Trade closed: stop reached:
stop is reached. now we will go for at least 5~6month of more bear market. next buy zone can be 4500/4600(bitfinex) and 4300+@(bitmex). i believe bounce will come. but, in the next few days, more drop can come. so buying around thu or friday will be better.