BTC: If the last high was the false breakout, we could see BTC retest the low of the summer 2021 range at 34k - 36k
As in my previous analysis, whenever we expect a bull run for ATH or positive Crypto sentiment, we need to see the confirmation from ETH. ETH in 90% case will lead the rally and gain % against Satoshi. Otherwise .... yes BTC will fake it until it makes it LL and retest the Monthly low around 32k-36k.
Market structure: Bearish at the moment. The last hope for BTC is that there is too much negative in the FEAR & GREED Index ( So much FEAR >> Good signs for BULLS)!
For that reason, I still hope that there should be another bullish run in 2022, until 04-06/2022.
1. Weekly: failed the EMA 21 weekly twice > Negative for bulls 2. Daily: failed to hold EMA 200 > Very bearish. 3. Volume is too weak, not clear signs of bouncing up.
The main bias in BTC is still bullish, however, BTC should regain the volume and interest of the market as soon as possible. The longer BTC weekly chart is under EMA 21 and 34, the bearish BTC will be in short and even midterms.
Thank you for any comments and sharing.
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BTC had several 4h and 8h candles rejection before it has dropped dramatically in the last 24H. My analysis: Minor support = 45k-46k the price channel between blue trendlines above. Major support = 40k-42k in which the last Swing low of BTC in Dec. Last support = 34k-36k in my analysis above, any price action in 12h or Daily closed below this zone could violate the Elliot waves rules and this scenario will be invalid. In that case, we will recalculate the alternative EW in which is more bearish for BTC.
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Since my last comment before the last trading day 31/12/2021: All the bearish targets are reached nicely. We still have one last "train" to 34k-37k. Stay safe and nice trade to all.
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As mentioned in the chart, the ultimate last support for the BTC chart is not 20k or 15k as you might see in a lot of analysis. From my side, I pick up the simple and easily viewed number 29k. Roughly speaking, now we are in the longer trend bearish market. Definitely, I want to see how could market prove that I was wrong? But at first, I trust my technical analysis. Cheers and safe!
for that ABC, mean you expect a running flat? ... but if you count abc for A, bellow A ( your invalidation price ), it is very posible ABC as expandet flat. just saying
JimParis
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@MynameisTeo: Yes it is just one of the possibilities. For me, that scenario is indicated the higher probability at the moment with the reasonable comments in my post + very weak volume, weekly RSI divergence for bears. As long as BTC remains below my key level 51989, minor resistance and closed above 21 EMA weekly strong resistance. There is no "strong" bullish bias in BTC. Thanks and cheers X-Mas 2021.
MynameisTeo
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@JimParis, Hi again...glad to see you have the same thoughts like me ( 100 % the same...this is scary ) ... you know the saying: when you have certain opinions about something, you will more easily notice people with the same opinions, which confirm your initial thoughts . I don't think that helps us as traders . I wish you a good day/night.
JimParis
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@MynameisTeo, Target is sooner than later, probably this month.