Phi-Deltalytics

Bitcoin: are you a bull or a bear?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Elliot waves are a great way to keep the big picture in mind. Above are three counts that we find most possible. We are still leaning toward the bullish counts. However, if we close below 8.8k and fundamentals give similar bearish trending signs, we would switch to the bearish count on the right.

Are you bullish or bearish? Do you agree or disagree? Share your thoughts and critics in comments!
Comment: We've so far seen lots of discussions around the wave4 correction would drop to the 8k zone. Yes, it's possible. However, with the fundamentals looking bullish and key supports holding, we'd rather see 8k as a "luck entry" (w/ small limit orders) and accumulate on higher dips.
Comment: This is how we tie TA and FA together!
Comment: Wave 4 is still developing. The first two corrective waves are hard to count, but the third one always has a five wave structure. Currently, we need another downward leg to complete the structure. Check out the details below:
Comment: BTC is so far moving as planned. Currently, it's at a critical moment. The 2D RSI needs to move above its MAs for a continued BTC bull trend.
Comment: BTC remains in a bullish trend and we are currently at a level of great risk-reward setup. Bullish scenario 1 remains the most likely wave count.
See the update below from both fundamental and the technical perspectives.
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Comments

not a bitcoin trader, but these charts make me want to dabble in it. My (soon to be actual) money is on lefty-blue-bull. Just seen this pseudo triple top get busted enough times now to consider it an actual bullish indicator. If these charts weren't so pretty, I'd be completely ambivalent.
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@Perma_Pig, thanks, man.
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@Perma_Pig, how soon is soon? long only? If still a month time, might be better to wait till the left structure finish playing out. A correction will likely follow.
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Perma_Pig Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, so i actually did short it once on the major blow-off because of how manic it had gotten. when i did watch it for that week-or-so period, the tape was reading much differently than the current methodical trend that I see here implies. So, would say the best thing to do right here is to continuously swing the lows and catch every magnetic move to the 10k mark. Find it almost impossible to believe that 10k doesn't get tested at least three more times before making a decision.

Also, there's enough room here to make a pretty decent profit on the re-tests, plus you get to learn how the tape feels. I am theoretically long crypto in general bc it almost must replace national currencies at this point (too much printing and no interest rate to incentivize holding cash = bitcoin pretty much has to go up).

Finally, given these facts and assuming you flip to 10k repeatedly and successfully, I don't see why you couldn't roll at least half of the scalped profits into a bigger gut-shot long position so that you make sure not to miss a potential break and 35% run.

And hey, if it fails here, its an easy wait til 8499.99 and enter long situation, imo.
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What about a hybrid scenario. A deep liquidity stop hunt to 8400-8600 to hit the 21 weekly ema at 8550. A lot of bull runs we retraced to the 21 ema weekly area before a move up. Given the corona situation the bear situation still can play out, but I think recently the markets have stopped caring about it as much and pricing it in. This along with the Feds propping up the stock markets with lots of qunatitve easing and very low interest rates, I can see the markets not factor in fundamentals that much till a second wave happens. Right now the market is still believing that we are gone with corona and a lot of people i know act like its gone, and even if cases rise, people will just see it as the first wave which already in there ends is " over".
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Phi-Deltalytics chartingman43
@chartingman43, thanks for sharing. Very nicely said! The 8.5k scenario is possible too, leading to a double three in Wave 4 rather than a triangle. I agree the market will likely go upwards giving Fed's actions. Buying the dips.
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Nice analysis.
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Mudrex Mudrex
Here is my view on BTCUSD -
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@Mudrex, thanks for sharing.
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