I don't expect anyone to actually trade based on this, but so many things lined up I thought I'd share.
Developed this idea when I went back & revisited my Bullish Wolfe Wave idea and set it to log scale & it matched really well with my Cup & Handle idea, AND seemed to match really well with fibonacci scales I was drawing. I'm not saying I think this is how everything is going to play out, but...I have to say, it actually doesn't seem like a totally unreasonable scenario... Who knows?
In any case, please don't go 100X long with your life savings because of this idea. It could do a major retrace at any moment, we're flying pretty high right now.
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Forgot to point out that the crash to retest the top of the channel would also be a 50% retrace.
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DAMN, this is looking pretty spot on at the moment haha
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Well I was a fibonacci level off and a month early, but in principle...I'm pretty proud of this prediction so far! June crash, channel test (didn't QUITE touch down but it was close!), segwit (don't want to jinx it, still 53 blocks until it's locked in...) liftoff from segwit, so far so good...
real growth since 2014 maybe x4 (300%)
of course, real live/current usage is only a relatively small portion of the valuation because people see the potential.
Yet the userbase as a whole is different, more calm, fewer gamblers than 3 years ago
and bitcoin got at least 20 more competitiors, in the meantime, who are all serious.
So generally i would think the bubbles could/should get proportionally smaller and smaller each time releatively to the previous ones
adam.huebner
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I like your update... I think 1600 is a very safe price to get back in at. I have some buys set as low as 1400. but the majority should be between 1500 and 1700 I would think
Oops_I_Charted
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@Adam.huebner, Totally agree, that's basically my strategy too. I think the lowest it'll go is probably in the high $1500's, maybe low $1500's if it breaks through the top of the channel and everyone overreacts. But there's always the possibility that the "buy the dip" impulse and general fomo is too strong and we liftoff again earlier that we expect - although I think it's less likely
adam.huebner
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@Oops_I_Charted, or until the ETF is approved Monday... haha
of course, real live/current usage is only a relatively small portion of the valuation because people see the potential.
Yet the userbase as a whole is different, more calm, fewer gamblers than 3 years ago
and bitcoin got at least 20 more competitiors, in the meantime, who are all serious.
So generally i would think the bubbles could/should get proportionally smaller and smaller each time releatively to the previous ones