I wrote this one 6 hours ago, but waited to see things play out a bit first.
We saw a strange move yesterday. Where it looked like the green version of my previous analysis would play out. The price was finding support in what seemed to be a bear flag at first. Then a big rally again out of nowhere taking it back to slightly above the previous high even. I posted an update in my free channels a few hours before the drop yesterday:
Starting to look more like profit taking at these highs now. So chances increase a bit that we might see a small drop at least this weekend. Alts getting hits again which is never good. I have no real reason yet to change my bullish outlook for the coming weeks yet, but short term, i would play it more careful. If 5680ish breaks, we are likely to test the low of the range again, around 5600.
It's weekend so random moves can happen, but volume is still high for a weekend move though. Usually want to see volume drop during consolidation (bull flag), that is not really happening yet, therefore can be a first sign of some distribution (hence the profit taking)
Short term, very tough to say. But this bounce up yesterday does show there is still potential on the upside for the coming week or 2. Maybe better said, it shows the intentions of the market is probably still aimed to the upside.
Problem is, we don't have a nice bull flag to go on. There is what seems to be a broadening triangle though, which looks to be real. It could just go to the bottom of it again, but judging on the bounce yesterday, it looks like the market doesn't want to drop back to the low of that pattern. A broadening triangle like this is very difficult to judge.
Only thing to go on for now is that channel on the right. Seems to be legit and we have had a several bounces already. Where it looks like it might drop but then each time it is getting pushed back up again. Which could indicate that we have a solid support zone here. Since we are still at the highs, it is not likely to assume that it will simply just break the resistance today and continue to rally. I would rather see it move above that support for maybe another day even before a real move happens.
Think that if the 5650ish breaks, we could see another drop to the 5500 or the 5400 support even (green version of the previous analysis). I would rather see this happen and bounce up from there again, but this market usually doesn't do what is best. Because those prices would be more attractive to try a swing long than current prices.
Now the resistance around 5800/6000 is not an ordinary one. So i don't think a simply short squeeze within a few seconds will break it. Think we might see some rejections while it happens. So in other words, more likely to see a normal rally instead of a short squeeze. Which is always better by the way.
Now if we see something like the blue line happen the coming 12/24 hours, than a move up will become very likely. In the meantime, we should keep an eye out for 5660/30 to see if that one holds the coming day.
Also when scrolling through the alts, most are at short term support levels now. So probably if Bitcoin's breaks the 5650ish support, we will probably see those make another big drop again.
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Previous analysis: Make sure you are aware of my thoughts of the previous few analysis as well.
Update i posted a few hours before in my public channel as well. This changes the analysis a little bit, but probably means that we will go sideways maybe another few days even. At least so far giving a decent road map to follow:
I have been trying to figure out a short term game plan, but it's really a tought one now. Already broke a support at 5650 but now bouncing up again as well. This is usually all just noise, going up and down killing day traders who bet on the wrong side. I am still bullish midterm, yesterday's bounce was quite strong. But these movements are tough. I don't think we will see a break up very soon, so i think maybe best to just let this movement play out until we see something more clear.
Starting to feel a but like what we saw a few months ago. Each time breaking a support but then creating another support just below the previous one. This is very frustrating for day traders if your not aware of it upfront. So best to stay out for now, otherwise be aware of sideways price action, which means going against what you normally think you should do, which feels very unnatural
We saw a strange move yesterday. Where it looked like the green version of my previous analysis would play out. The price was finding support in what seemed to be a bear flag at first. Then a big rally again out of nowhere taking it back to slightly above the previous high even. I posted an update in my free channels a few hours before the drop yesterday:
Starting to look more like profit taking at these highs now. So chances increase a bit that we might see a small drop at least this weekend. Alts getting hits again which is never good. I have no real reason yet to change my bullish outlook for the coming weeks yet, but short term, i would play it more careful. If 5680ish breaks, we are likely to test the low of the range again, around 5600.
It's weekend so random moves can happen, but volume is still high for a weekend move though. Usually want to see volume drop during consolidation (bull flag), that is not really happening yet, therefore can be a first sign of some distribution (hence the profit taking)
Short term, very tough to say. But this bounce up yesterday does show there is still potential on the upside for the coming week or 2. Maybe better said, it shows the intentions of the market is probably still aimed to the upside.
Problem is, we don't have a nice bull flag to go on. There is what seems to be a broadening triangle though, which looks to be real. It could just go to the bottom of it again, but judging on the bounce yesterday, it looks like the market doesn't want to drop back to the low of that pattern. A broadening triangle like this is very difficult to judge.
Only thing to go on for now is that channel on the right. Seems to be legit and we have had a several bounces already. Where it looks like it might drop but then each time it is getting pushed back up again. Which could indicate that we have a solid support zone here. Since we are still at the highs, it is not likely to assume that it will simply just break the resistance today and continue to rally. I would rather see it move above that support for maybe another day even before a real move happens.
Think that if the 5650ish breaks, we could see another drop to the 5500 or the 5400 support even (green version of the previous analysis). I would rather see this happen and bounce up from there again, but this market usually doesn't do what is best. Because those prices would be more attractive to try a swing long than current prices.
Now the resistance around 5800/6000 is not an ordinary one. So i don't think a simply short squeeze within a few seconds will break it. Think we might see some rejections while it happens. So in other words, more likely to see a normal rally instead of a short squeeze. Which is always better by the way.
Now if we see something like the blue line happen the coming 12/24 hours, than a move up will become very likely. In the meantime, we should keep an eye out for 5660/30 to see if that one holds the coming day.
Also when scrolling through the alts, most are at short term support levels now. So probably if Bitcoin's breaks the 5650ish support, we will probably see those make another big drop again.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis: Make sure you are aware of my thoughts of the previous few analysis as well.
Update i posted a few hours before in my public channel as well. This changes the analysis a little bit, but probably means that we will go sideways maybe another few days even. At least so far giving a decent road map to follow:
I have been trying to figure out a short term game plan, but it's really a tought one now. Already broke a support at 5650 but now bouncing up again as well. This is usually all just noise, going up and down killing day traders who bet on the wrong side. I am still bullish midterm, yesterday's bounce was quite strong. But these movements are tough. I don't think we will see a break up very soon, so i think maybe best to just let this movement play out until we see something more clear.
Starting to feel a but like what we saw a few months ago. Each time breaking a support but then creating another support just below the previous one. This is very frustrating for day traders if your not aware of it upfront. So best to stay out for now, otherwise be aware of sideways price action, which means going against what you normally think you should do, which feels very unnatural
Comment:
Lets see if it will follow the rest of the blue line as well :)
Comment:
Lol, and another wick and bounce :). Wondering, is the market following this 'fractal' or is it following my blue line here ;)
Comment:
Sick :) Still following it quite nicely. Think the real turning point will be, when we see alts get stronger. Some have already, but not convinced yet.
Comment:
Sometimes my job is just very easy :)
Still going to assume we won't break up or down yet but going to move in this range. Maybe even another day or 2. As long as we keep on seeing good bounces like these, it will be in favor of a bullish outcome if we do break out of this range
Still going to assume we won't break up or down yet but going to move in this range. Maybe even another day or 2. As long as we keep on seeing good bounces like these, it will be in favor of a bullish outcome if we do break out of this range
Comment:
If it's still in play, than we should be at this spot now. So now we could be retesting the 5600ish again. Ideally we see a slightly higher low there
Comment:
Stil feels a bit too soon to break up now, but most ingredients are there already. Today's rally was mostly fueled by ETH, which rallied very big today. People are celebrating that ETH futures will/might come in the market, just like Bitcoin in Dec 2017 lol :).
I had something like the 2 flags in mind, so seeing one more correctional wave down. But seems ETH might have changed it? Anyway, against resistance again, so probably not much room to slip away. So i think that this curved blue line on the right is something to follow. It's like showing the parabolic move of today. Like it's the foundation of this whole attempt. So when it breaks, the attempt is also probably over.
So it will be an exciting few hours i think. Since we had several attempts to break the 5800/5850, i don't think it is likely to see a simple squeeze through the resistance. So it might even take several hours until it really breaks. Unless volume becomes very big, which it is no at this point.
Think 5700ish is an important level now for this attempt. 5650 is important to prevent a retest of even lower prices. 5740/50 is the support of the current bull flag on the 5m chart
Also, even though the flag has a bit different shape, but seems the orange version might be in play now.
I had something like the 2 flags in mind, so seeing one more correctional wave down. But seems ETH might have changed it? Anyway, against resistance again, so probably not much room to slip away. So i think that this curved blue line on the right is something to follow. It's like showing the parabolic move of today. Like it's the foundation of this whole attempt. So when it breaks, the attempt is also probably over.
So it will be an exciting few hours i think. Since we had several attempts to break the 5800/5850, i don't think it is likely to see a simple squeeze through the resistance. So it might even take several hours until it really breaks. Unless volume becomes very big, which it is no at this point.
Think 5700ish is an important level now for this attempt. 5650 is important to prevent a retest of even lower prices. 5740/50 is the support of the current bull flag on the 5m chart
Also, even though the flag has a bit different shape, but seems the orange version might be in play now.
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