What if we didn't see these prices again for five years? Do you think you'd stay in Bitcoin for that long? Why? Why not?
I seem to recall seeing a chart somewhat similar to what I've done here many moons ago, but I don't recall where or how.
But it paints quite an "interesting" picture to put it mildly...
Bitcoin seems to Love patterns - sometimes called "fractals..." This isn't something I'm going to go into too deep here, but, it is my belief that the trajectory outlined above is one which any reasonable mind could deduce and conclude, based on simple reason and observation (and a little creativity :)
Basically what we're seeing in this chart is my inferences based on the previous patterns and moods of BTC: showing we might be entering a serious if not the "final" stretch before we travel up to that final plateau of 100k.
But it appears the journey there may be panning out quite a bit different than I Ihad anticipated... Though, if I'm honest, almost the very moment I drew this chart, and saw what it seemed to be telling me, you wanna know what I felt? I felt Relief... Why? Because it just seem to make so much sense...
As unpopular or "unexciting" as a 4 year Bear Market may be, it surely isn't something any hodler of said asset would probably want to hear.... BUT, I truly truly believe that if this thing is to be around for the real long haul, this could turn out to be a very, very plausible scenario.
I like to call it "the battle of the halvenings" (denoted by the Vertical Orange bars...) And this "dead zone" looks like it will basically persist between the next Halvening event and the following one happening in around the winter 2024, possibly not even reaching our Present Levels of 7.8k USD for another year after that! It is true these "calculations" are certainly rough; but, they are close enough to get the idea, surely.
How could this be good, you say? Well, it will be a REAL period of "relatively" stable currency, for one - evening out at around the 5K median or so... Also, this would give plenty of time for True, not only adoption, but actually Building the technologies to be adopted. After all we're Just now really seeing the space truly start to spread its wings... During this time a Stable currency with a period of "head down, eyes forward," in the scheme of things, five years is Nothing....
I'd love to hear others' thoughts on this...
Tl;dr: Bear Market next four years between the Halvenings... Won't see 8 again for years... Old ATHs not returned to (i.e. 20K USD BTC) until Summer 2027ish, and then soon after, 100K by that Fall.... Am I off? Wayyy off? Little off? Iknow I'm "off," but, you know what I'm mean, ya'll... ;))
This has been one of my theories (out of many of course). But each bubble and bear cycle has lasted longer than the last. Right now I feel we may be at about June to Sept of 2014 from the previous bear market. Every bear market has tested the previous All Time High. We have no yet. If we do that means we are going to roughly $1000 with other cryptos tanking to lowest levels ever, and the process will take a couple years. If it happens it will be the buying opportunity of a life time... yet again... after so many previous chances.
gjones15
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@Universe, Right? Only problem with that is, ya gotta Have the capital to BUY lol. I guess I'd better start accumulating now so I'll be prepared. So you think we'll Re-test 20K?? I don't see how but I suppose it's possible! I've only been around since about December 2017 seriously with crypto. What's your opinion on BCH?
Universe
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@gjones15, No sorry what I meant was test the ATH of the previous bubble. So the previous bubble pop high was about $1200 in 2013 and I suspect we will test that level. Before that that it was $260 which was tested in 2015.
In terms of BCH I quite like it since it is the original concept of Bitcoin before it was strangely hijacked by predatory developers. I've been into crypto since 2011 so I liked Bitcoin as it was originally pitched in the whitepaper and what made it so successful to begin with. I'm not convinced BCH will ever get to the heights of BTC... and honestly have developed more interest in other cryptos at this point. =)
gjones15
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@Universe, Oh really? Which ones ya like?? I am a big supporter of the Holo/Holochain project... I went to university with one of their original team members which is how I learned of them. Fell out of touch with person so I missed the ICO unfortuntaely, but still got in there relatively early ;)
That's so cool you've been around that long... Man, that's awesome... What a journey!! I actually purchased my first amount of BTC back in ... 2013 or so - it was about $350 at the time, and I rememebr thinking :WTF?""" Is this crazy thing it's SO EXPENSIVE!!! lol never thought about it again till 12/2017 bullrun mania, and I went back to my coinbase account - my few pennies of change had morphed into $25 and I was an immediate fan lol. Been hooked ever since!