Long

Wave 5 of C

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1288 20
I feel this could be a high probability scenario within the next couple of weeks. Wave 4 is a triangle and wave e is also a triangle itself. Wave 5 only started a couple of days ago. If wave 1 equals wave 5 as is often the case, the target would be 232.62 for wave 5. That would be the end of the bear market. Wave 5 would not be truncated.

Note: Wave 1 high at 170.28 so there would be no overlapping if wave 4 ends at 232. The impulsive wave starting at 45 will still be intact for the wave 5 move to ATH

This is my main count. It has the right "look" of an impulse wave. The market tried very hard to distort the triangle but if you extend those lines they do converge
Hi, I'm no EW specialist but what pattern is that a-b-c-d-e thing before your last impulse down?
It looks more like ABC is a zigzag up, then your D is a 1 down, with 2 being that triangle.
IvanLabrie
it's a triangle. the d wave is corrective (3 wave structure). according to ew rules and guidelines wave 2 must not be a triangle so that tells us it's something else. i realised that whole sideways correction was wave 4 and all made sense
user100000
The triangle inside d-e is smaller too, maybe it's part of a double zigzag or other complex correction.
In my own experience I don't find kind of analysis that useful for trading, but depends on the trader really.
IvanLabrie
What I was going for, is that you can't label your move as a-b-c-d-e unless it's an expanding or contracting triangle, which it's not.
IvanLabrie
it's contracting. please extend those lines... it is distorted. thats why i missed it at first
IvanLabrie
wave e is a triangle itself. so you have two triangles within each other. it's useful so you know where the triangle ends and can make preperations if you must
user100000
I don't see it like you do, but well, I'm not an EW specialist.
I'm more concerned with practical trade setups these days.
Can you take a position based on this analysis?
IvanLabrie
yes. you take a short position at wave e
user100000
As for the short I agree, it'd be safer in general. I've done some bad EW analysis and still made money trading it before hehe :p
You should sell that BTC though, in my opinion (maybe buy Bitshares if you want?)
Don't you think it may trigger pannic selling down to \$10 as there would be a major support line broken with this drop (if it happen) ?

(I'd say: the last (ultimate) support line that is still warming the hearts of all adoption beleivers)
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