BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1281 20 5
I feel this could be a high probability scenario within the next couple of weeks. Wave 4 is a triangle and wave e is also a triangle itself. Wave 5 only started a couple of days ago. If wave 1 equals wave 5 as is often the case, the target would be 232.62 for wave 5. That would be the end of the bear market. Wave 5 would not be truncated.

Note: Wave 1 high at 170.28 so there would be no overlapping if wave 4 ends at 232. The impulsive wave starting at 45 will still be intact for the wave 5 move to ATH            

This is my main count. It has the right "look" of an impulse wave. The market tried very hard to distort the triangle but if you extend those lines they do converge
MoonTrader
2 years ago
Why does the tag say long if you think we're going down?
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user100000 MoonTrader
2 years ago
i own bitcoins; am disclosing my position
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johnrfraser user100000
2 years ago
So no 5th wave completion at 240??
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user100000 johnrfraser
2 years ago
yes somewhere around that number. 232 is where wave1=5
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johnrfraser user100000
2 years ago
So you've just bought btc?? When the next stop of your impulse is 323?
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user100000 johnrfraser
2 years ago
no, i've had these bitcoins forever. never sold.

i don't know; too early to look closely. an impulsive wave will unfold all the way to 232
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johnrfraser user100000
2 years ago
Ah! I see...I thought you meant you just bought them :-)
Thanks a lot
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johnrfraser user100000
2 years ago
So 323 is your next 'buy' for a short term long up to end of wave 2, selling at about 345?
Have you seen 4xForecaster's 306 target? Maybe an expansion of the same 323 target?
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johnrfraser johnrfraser
2 years ago
sorry, small screen...end of wave 1 is 323 - 327. i called it 323
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Patladj.
2 years ago
Don't you think it may trigger pannic selling down to $10 as there would be a major support line broken with this drop (if it happen) ?

(I'd say: the last (ultimate) support line that is still warming the hearts of all adoption beleivers)
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user100000 Patladj.
2 years ago
the market isn't random. it will trade within a channel as an impulsive wave
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Hi, I'm no EW specialist but what pattern is that a-b-c-d-e thing before your last impulse down?
It looks more like ABC is a zigzag up, then your D is a 1 down, with 2 being that triangle.
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user100000 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
it's a triangle. the d wave is corrective (3 wave structure). according to ew rules and guidelines wave 2 must not be a triangle so that tells us it's something else. i realised that whole sideways correction was wave 4 and all made sense
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IvanLabrie TOP user100000
2 years ago
The triangle inside d-e is smaller too, maybe it's part of a double zigzag or other complex correction.
In my own experience I don't find kind of analysis that useful for trading, but depends on the trader really.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
What I was going for, is that you can't label your move as a-b-c-d-e unless it's an expanding or contracting triangle, which it's not.
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user100000 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
it's contracting. please extend those lines... it is distorted. thats why i missed it at first
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user100000 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
wave e is a triangle itself. so you have two triangles within each other. it's useful so you know where the triangle ends and can make preperations if you must
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IvanLabrie TOP user100000
2 years ago
I don't see it like you do, but well, I'm not an EW specialist.
I'm more concerned with practical trade setups these days.
Can you take a position based on this analysis?
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user100000 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
yes. you take a short position at wave e
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IvanLabrie TOP user100000
2 years ago
As for the short I agree, it'd be safer in general. I've done some bad EW analysis and still made money trading it before hehe :p
You should sell that BTC though, in my opinion (maybe buy Bitshares if you want?)
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