Ok, here's an updated analysis of Bitcoin.
We're trending down in down channel of the pitch fork. There won't be any significant bullish action on any crypto asset until Bitcoin breaks out of this channel.
You can see the whole move down as a sequence of nested WXY in a wave Y of a larger degree WXY. Some parts of it can be counted as 5 waves of A and C of ABC. This is shown as red/blue alt counts.
Alternatively, you can count this move as 1-2-3-4-5 but I don't see a good simple count for it. Complex corrections tend to break simple 1-2-3-4-5 counts.
There's no definitive way to count a complex correction, all subwave trend directions are relative to the direction of the prev swing and can flip. You can use both methods and make fib projections based on any count.
WXY are common structures, and WXYXZ are rare. You can replace WXYXZ or 12345 with a nested WXY/ABC. Counting waves as nested WXY is a universal method that can be applied to any complex correction, regardless of the trend direction.
ETH is trending in a similar down channel, but it has touched the upper channel line already. BTC needs another leg up to touch it.
ETH shows strength due to recent news confirming that ETH tokens will not be treated as securities which paves the way for possible ETF and futures of ETH itself.
A closer inspection shows that we had already reached the target of the first Bear flag, so the last leg down was not necessary, hence the consolidation and a move up.
One of the prev Elliott wave counts also supported this local bottom.
The Sentiment Longs vs Shorts indicator gave us a prior warning of a possible pump.
As result, we had a breakout from the triangle to the up side and a $400 move up.
This is a weak pump compared to a historic $1000 move of the Great Bear Squeeze which had a strong candle, signaling a definitive up trend, so it's likely just an upwards correction and will fade out soon.
1) Bearish scenario:
We managed to get support of EMA 50 for BTC, ETH and BCH on Bitfinex/Bitstamp, but failed to do so on BTC1! futures chart, and for IOTA, EOS and LTC as well. So, a definitive overall market rejection and a move down may be in play.
Breaking the 6430 triangle mean line and subsequently 5900 ATL will confirm further decline along the pitchfork channel with a likely bear target of 5000. A sudden drop/crash is also possible.
Bear Flag 2 target and wave Y = 100% of wave X also confirm 5000
In this case we will complete wave X (or B or wave 4) and have another leg Y down of a nested WXY (or C of ABC or wave 5 of 1-2-3-4-5) towards 5000 - see red and blue counts.
2) Bullish scenario:
If we manage to stay on EMA 50, there's a slim chance of another leg up to finish subwave (v) of a possible wave 1 of an up trend.
But this will not confirm the up trend - it could be wave (c) touching the upper channel of the pitchfork.
Only channel breakout will slightly shift the bias to the bullish side. And we must get support of EMA 50 on the futures for any bullish continuation!
In this case the bottom (Y) is already in (Y of green WXY is also in), we will complete wave 1, correct in wave 2 and then move up in wave 3 (green count).
Personally, I don't see it as a viable scenario.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Please, do your own research to confirm/disprove. I'm not responsible for possible losses.
We're trending down in down channel of the pitch fork. There won't be any significant bullish action on any crypto asset until Bitcoin breaks out of this channel.
You can see the whole move down as a sequence of nested WXY in a wave Y of a larger degree WXY. Some parts of it can be counted as 5 waves of A and C of ABC. This is shown as red/blue alt counts.
Alternatively, you can count this move as 1-2-3-4-5 but I don't see a good simple count for it. Complex corrections tend to break simple 1-2-3-4-5 counts.
There's no definitive way to count a complex correction, all subwave trend directions are relative to the direction of the prev swing and can flip. You can use both methods and make fib projections based on any count.
WXY are common structures, and WXYXZ are rare. You can replace WXYXZ or 12345 with a nested WXY/ABC. Counting waves as nested WXY is a universal method that can be applied to any complex correction, regardless of the trend direction.
ETH is trending in a similar down channel, but it has touched the upper channel line already. BTC needs another leg up to touch it.
ETH shows strength due to recent news confirming that ETH tokens will not be treated as securities which paves the way for possible ETF and futures of ETH itself.
A closer inspection shows that we had already reached the target of the first Bear flag, so the last leg down was not necessary, hence the consolidation and a move up.
One of the prev Elliott wave counts also supported this local bottom.
The Sentiment Longs vs Shorts indicator gave us a prior warning of a possible pump.
As result, we had a breakout from the triangle to the up side and a $400 move up.
This is a weak pump compared to a historic $1000 move of the Great Bear Squeeze which had a strong candle, signaling a definitive up trend, so it's likely just an upwards correction and will fade out soon.
1) Bearish scenario:
We managed to get support of EMA 50 for BTC, ETH and BCH on Bitfinex/Bitstamp, but failed to do so on BTC1! futures chart, and for IOTA, EOS and LTC as well. So, a definitive overall market rejection and a move down may be in play.
Breaking the 6430 triangle mean line and subsequently 5900 ATL will confirm further decline along the pitchfork channel with a likely bear target of 5000. A sudden drop/crash is also possible.
Bear Flag 2 target and wave Y = 100% of wave X also confirm 5000
In this case we will complete wave X (or B or wave 4) and have another leg Y down of a nested WXY (or C of ABC or wave 5 of 1-2-3-4-5) towards 5000 - see red and blue counts.
2) Bullish scenario:
If we manage to stay on EMA 50, there's a slim chance of another leg up to finish subwave (v) of a possible wave 1 of an up trend.
But this will not confirm the up trend - it could be wave (c) touching the upper channel of the pitchfork.
Only channel breakout will slightly shift the bias to the bullish side. And we must get support of EMA 50 on the futures for any bullish continuation!
In this case the bottom (Y) is already in (Y of green WXY is also in), we will complete wave 1, correct in wave 2 and then move up in wave 3 (green count).
Personally, I don't see it as a viable scenario.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Please, do your own research to confirm/disprove. I'm not responsible for possible losses.
Comment:
Also the 50-100-200 EMAs may soon cross and start fanning up, except for 200 on the futures chart where the price is sandwiched in between
Comment:
We've failed to cross the pitchfork channel up (got 3 clear pushes down), lost EMA support, (got rejected from EMA 50 on the futures), could not penetrate the cloud, broke down from a triangle, breached 6430 (first triangle's mean line) and are likely to drop to 6000 now.
This does not look like a wave 2 of an up trend. And this can't be wave 4 due to overlapping with wave 1. And it's not a wedge, we're past that. There's a slight chance that if could be 1-2 1-2 but those smaller degree waves would be unproportional and we're on a verge of breaking 6330 (possible wave 2 end).
This looks like a start of a crash.
The only possibility of moving up is if we label our recent wxy upwards correction as a larger degree wave W up, putting us in ABC wave X down. So, we could still have another wave Y up, but this pump will likely happen near 6000 rather then right now because the volume is just not there and never was.
While price slowly increased volume was declining starting from the bottom = bearish. This is a grinding upwards wxy correction and we either
This does not look like a wave 2 of an up trend. And this can't be wave 4 due to overlapping with wave 1. And it's not a wedge, we're past that. There's a slight chance that if could be 1-2 1-2 but those smaller degree waves would be unproportional and we're on a verge of breaking 6330 (possible wave 2 end).
This looks like a start of a crash.
The only possibility of moving up is if we label our recent wxy upwards correction as a larger degree wave W up, putting us in ABC wave X down. So, we could still have another wave Y up, but this pump will likely happen near 6000 rather then right now because the volume is just not there and never was.
While price slowly increased volume was declining starting from the bottom = bearish. This is a grinding upwards wxy correction and we either
Comment:
We have almost reached the target for wave c of abc. This is the likely bottom:
- wave c = 2.618 of wave a => 6060
- wave v = 4.618 of wave i => 6070 (alternatively this could be only wave iii and another leg down is due)
- dark purple hogopian line
It was a nice profit.
Now we will consolidate, correct to 23.6-32.8% 6250-6350 of the whole abc move, pull a few fakeout tricks to either side and
- smash 6000 on our way down to the next target 5800 or
- go up in wave Y if this whole thing is wave X of a flat WXY upwards correction to around 6600 to get there by 29th
the Wykoff markdown and low volume support bearish scenario
- wave c = 2.618 of wave a => 6060
- wave v = 4.618 of wave i => 6070 (alternatively this could be only wave iii and another leg down is due)
- dark purple hogopian line
It was a nice profit.
Now we will consolidate, correct to 23.6-32.8% 6250-6350 of the whole abc move, pull a few fakeout tricks to either side and
- smash 6000 on our way down to the next target 5800 or
- go up in wave Y if this whole thing is wave X of a flat WXY upwards correction to around 6600 to get there by 29th
the Wykoff markdown and low volume support bearish scenario
- we haven't touched the pitchfork mean line at 6000, so we might mirror/go up the length of the whole prev swing = to ~9600
- the futures will expire on last friday of the month, June 29th. They probably want the price around 7000 or higher and won't let it fall below.
- we have small pumps each 48hrs lately the next pump may start in about 15-20 hrs.
- although we have rejection from the down channel and are just below the EMA on the futures chart, we can still quicky move up and ride it with the next pump.
- we haven't broken the trend line drawn from the local bottom on the futures chart yet for almost a week.
- we have some bullish engulfment on a daily
The whole correction does not have to be a double zigzag WXY with target 5000. The swing since X may be an ABC flat with A and C impulses down.
- We can have a WXY impulse down from 20000.
- Then a wave X (ABC) up to 11800.
- And from there an ABC zigzag flat (3-3-5 structure) to 6100.
- And now we might be going up in a 2nd wave X or in y of a flat X upwards correction of a larger WXY.
- And finally we may have a triangle to finish the combination and resume the up trend.
This is the key pivot and there's no certainty. Careful, Bears!