V0VOLAN

💱BTC- Current situation, my assumptions and potential playout

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I have been playing around a-b-c-d-e scenario and I still consider it an option, however todays dump made me put thing into perspective. Everyone's going crazy right now, some are making 100k calls, while others expect 50k dump so I just thought I'd share my view on the current situation.

Assumptions:

- As long as the price remains inside the channel, its upper and lower trendline are the most important levels no matter what
- If the price breaks above 63750 and forms a local higher high(ideally >66387) I would assume that wave "E" is still in play and it invalidates the scenario of further correction
- If the price gets rejected from 63750 I would assume that this is the end of wave "b" and start of wave "c"
- I assume 0.382(57817) won't be a bottom for this correction, because this level was already touched during this push, and it simply wouldn't make sense to end the a-b-c countertrend at the level that previously acted as support during this wave. It wouldn't fit an expanded flat correction type either.
- I assume the price won't go as low as previous swing high (52967) because the 4th wave shouldn't go as low as wave 1 high
- Therefore potential bottom of this correction could be between previous low and 0.5 fib retracement

- The current level is where 50MA(1d) is, and this moving average was very respected, acting as strong support all throughout the 2020 run
- The overall volume on daily/weekly chart is FREAKING AWFUL. It makes me think BTC needs a deeper dive to attract more buyers and if we won't see an increase in volume soon, this would make me think there's just not enough interest in this asset to keep pushing the price higher (meaning the run is over)

Those are the assumptions I'm gonna play by, feel free to share yours in the comments!