BTC Risk:Reward is on LONG side
Looking at a long term chart, take out a long on BTC risked off of major lower low and break out of the major wedge. We have two main lower lows to risk off of:
With tight weekly bbands, we are about to see a major drop or push up.
Comment:
Point and Figure i.imgur.com/r5L70zI.png We have some major consolidation going on here, with very few long poles and frequent reversals over the last few weeks.
PnF Long term, a pullback to $4,499 would complete unresolved long pole dating back about 9 months ago and is our next likely long-term target. But after our recent 2-part bull div (big deal! hasnt happened since 2014!) I think we should have enough upward momentum to not see <5k too soon. First we need to retest resistance levels. Strongest resistance levels are described in my last paragraph.
PnF Short term, we have an unresolved long pole of 16 O's from 6/10, a move above 7,040 would resolve 50% of the pole. Fun fact, we have had 168 long poles in the last 9 months and every single one of the 168 long poles have had 50% resolution except this one from 6/10. 1.5 year of PnF here: i.imgur.com/AuSFbNz.png
Daily Reverse Head and Shoulders
We have a clear H&S pattern making its decision soon here. We have formed the right shoulder and come up to the neckline but have not yet broken the neckline. We are looking for a clear break of 6845, especially a daily close above it. This would be very bullish. Until this happens, this is a short opportunity.
4 Hour Bear Div (RSI)
This is unconfirmed and will not confirm for a whomping 3 and a half hours. But given that we touch touched down on top of volume profile node both on weekly and daily timescale, and we are risking a failure off daily H&S break. A confirmation of the 4 hour bear div would be a short opportunity.
So to summarize: Big crossroads this week. Opportunity is on the shorters side as they can set stop loss at break of daily H&S neckline. Personally I think we will break neckline, but that doesn't stop the fact that R:R opportunity is on shorters side at this moment.
PnF Long term, a pullback to $4,499 would complete unresolved long pole dating back about 9 months ago and is our next likely long-term target. But after our recent 2-part bull div (big deal! hasnt happened since 2014!) I think we should have enough upward momentum to not see <5k too soon. First we need to retest resistance levels. Strongest resistance levels are described in my last paragraph.
PnF Short term, we have an unresolved long pole of 16 O's from 6/10, a move above 7,040 would resolve 50% of the pole. Fun fact, we have had 168 long poles in the last 9 months and every single one of the 168 long poles have had 50% resolution except this one from 6/10. 1.5 year of PnF here: i.imgur.com/AuSFbNz.png
Daily Reverse Head and Shoulders
4 Hour Bear Div (RSI)
So to summarize: Big crossroads this week. Opportunity is on the shorters side as they can set stop loss at break of daily H&S neckline. Personally I think we will break neckline, but that doesn't stop the fact that R:R opportunity is on shorters side at this moment.
Trade closed manually:
CLOSED @ 6753
Above I have labeled the bull div in thick pink, circled the 3 legs down for this bear run in red circles, and targets are purple (volume profile node) and light blue (62% local fib). Orange lines represent lower lows, which could be used to play break down or to risk longs off of.
Breaking the orange lines would be very bad for long term outlook on BTC. Risk:reward is on the Bulls side right now.