This exponential model was carefully rendered from historical trade action data. Lower support trend breaches at this point do not alter the indicated price targets; ranges are still to be considered accurate.
[N.B. Mt. Gox was an active exchange throughout most of the time this empirical information was collected but, of course, is no longer. Consequently, the large-scale structure of the growth paradigm may be altered.]
•The regions detailed in my post "INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD … " are represented above using pairs of RED|VERTICALS with an interior span of ├5 WEEKS┤, within which the intra-bubble bottoms (indicated with red adjoining beam) occur, and with no greater than ╟36 WEEKS╢ between any adjacent set of pairs.
•BLUE|VERTICALS, of interior span ├4 WEEKS┤, demarcate the boundary between adjacent 'double-bubble' pairs by partitioning the chart into ╟64 WEEK╢ regions of accelerating exponential growth shown by the GREEN↗DASHED trend lines.
EPOCHS: I find that bubbles occur in pairs, taking place over intervals with exponential lower bounds that spontaneously accelerates in the interim region between one pair and the next, as described above. I call these time periods 'epochs'. The PURPLE|VERTICALS are near where the major pre-bubble acceleration occurs. The last two bubbles took place in Epoch 2, or E[2], thus the next two will occur in Epoch 3, whose trendline E[3] forms the border between the orange and green triangular areas of the projection. Tautologically, bubbles in the same pair have more in common than ones which are not.
•The DOTTED HORIZONTALS: ┈ORANGE┈ and ┈RED┈ indicate the maximum* [open/close] and highest [high] possible, respectively, for each given peak. ┈PURPLE┈ defines post-bottom support by averaging two nearest maxima*.
•TRIANGLES: I've triangulated the double-bubble projection, outlining where possible peaks are likely to occur, using intuitive color-coded regions intended to reflect the range of expected prices/pressures around those times. It is anticipated that all future candles will intersect or lie wholly within these areas. GREEN is a 'safe' channel, of avg. [upward] movement; ORANGE: [mixed] signal; and RED: strongly [downward] pressures. In effect, this amounts to a kind of probability gradient over the possible future price trajectories; red zones being more untenable than orange ones; and orange, less so than green, hence why I didn't simply draw a 'bar pattern'.
⊕ See pastebin.com/gwjHYZBS for a full description which would not fit in this space.
Well, 7 good weeks followed by 7 weeks completely off-course cancel out, as far as I'm concerned; clearly, the Epoch 3 acceleration did not continue on this schedule, though I still believe it to be imminent. Time is often the most difficult element to predict with accuracy, but obviously I needed to attempt this in order to make a chart of my findings. That being said, the area highlighted green (which has always been the most probable 'safe-zone') still suggests a $3400-4k target range by mid-to-late October; thus, while delayed, I do expect these greater and lesser movements to play out yet. [For the sake of clarity, I may consider remaking this chart to accommodate the temporal errors, but the smaller targets will essentially remain the same.]
snowsilence
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We have been on the new Epoch 3 trend for several weeks now, having diverted upward between the weeks of May 4th & May 18, (i.e. 2 'binned weeks') so this chart appears to thus far be a success. My quoted temporal error —specified at the top of the description as "378 hours (i.e. 2.25 binned weeks)"— seems to have held nicely, in that we correct to the new trend in just under that timeframe. I couldn't have hoped for a much better realization of the predictions. — On we go!
LazyBear
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+1 Nice chart and writeup, though I personally think 1million is kinda too high (lol!).
snowsilence
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You mean $100,000 —which is what appears on the chart— and yes, it is a projected outlier ;)
LazyBear
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lol...there was that extra zero there, I swear :P
lowstrife
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Devaluation of the dollar over time and it might get there.
snowsilence
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It's good that people think there may be real-world reasons to justify this chart. I'm not claiming that there are any. This extrapolation is merely what the data indicates. It does not suggest any precipitating circumstances or specific methods of causation. As a historical model it is therefore subject to alteration whenever the infrastructure of the system —Bitcoin, or the global economy itself— changes.
snowsilence
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Sorry, in the chart title, it should have said, eh, "600-Week–Long", not 60.