BTCookieMonster
Long

BTC Major Breakout at 7650 - 0.764 Retracement - March 27, 2018

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Friends - As always, thank you for all of your support, it is deeply appreciated.

BTC Broke out of the major downtrend correction, and thus ending it, on February 5th, as I had projected in a previous post, at the the 0.764 Fibonacci Retracement (anchored at the low of 1758.20 on July 15, 2015) from the ATH of 19819.99 in December.


This breakout came at the bottom of a descending triangle at 5873 which then took BTC to 11775.


As detailed in a previous post, taking the Wave 2 Fibonnaci Retracement levels and applying them from the high of 11775 down to 5873, I projected a breakout in the 7800-7200 range, between the 0.618 and 0.764 Fib levels.


On March 17 BTC began a breakout at the low of 7310, at the bottom of a descending triangle from 11775, to a high of 9174 on March 20.


BTC has moved progressively down, once again, in the shape of a descending triangle , to its current range (as of this writing) of 8000-7850.


Applying the same Fibonnaci Retracement levels as in the two previous descending triangle breakouts, the 0.764 falls to 7753.72.


As in the previous breakouts BTC dipped just below the retracement level and trend lines just before its rise, so, I expect it to do the same here.


With this data and track record I project that BTC will breakout of the current descending triangle at just below the 0.764 Retracement on the green trend line (established between the lows of 5873 and 7310) at 7650, beginning on the next daily candle of March 27, 2018.


This projection coincides with the previous pattern in which BTC has moved and broken out and if there is one thing BTC does well, it is follow major pattern movement.


Happy Trading.

P.S.: This Chart is Live on YouTube
Comment: -------------------------UPDATE 3/27/18 1:18 AM EST -----------------------
The following 5 charts are currently showing Bullish Divergence:

5 Minute
15 Minute
30 Minute
1 Hour
4 Hour
A closer look at the RSI on the 4 Hour
Comment: Bullish Divergence leading to convergence on the 18 Hour

Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Daily
Comment: And just now we push up to 7908 on the 4 Hour
Comment: Weeks ago there was the idea of an Inverse Head & Shoulders forming on the daily chart but it never materialized...because it had yet to complete:

You can see another example of the Inverse H&S from September there as well...

And I found more...
Comment: And this chart above clarifies the Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Daily chart.
Comment: And you want the Bull Flag...

All of them...
Comment: As of 2:27 AM EST:
Comment: 5 Min
Comment: Two Llamas kissing, tails up... that was the reversal
Comment: -----------------UPDATE 3/27/18 11:33 AM EST-----------------------------
Daily chart
As of now BTC bounced off my 0.618 Retracement at the low 7757, and is holding above the trend line (yellow) anchored from April 15, 2017, at the low of $900, to the February 6, 2018 low of 5873.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/dz0trQ...
The 4Hour chart above shows that the RSI has plenty of room to run, and the MACD, MACD Histogram, and Elliott Wave Oscillator are all beginning to curve up, signaling increased upward momentum.

The 6Hour is showing a continued rise in the RSI, MACD, and Elliott Wave Oscillator- clearly indicating increased buying momentum...
Comment: 1 Hour chart also showing BTC continuing to rise...RSI, MACD, and EWO with plenty of room.
Comment: ---------------------------UPDATE 3/27/18 9:30 PM EST-----------------------

BTC stopped in its tracks again at the 0.74 level, as it had done the past 24 hours, and in the previous Major lows of 5800 and 7300, which I detailed in the update prior to this.

It is showing Bullish Divergence on nearly every time frame leading up to the Daily:

5 Min

15 Min

30 Min

1 Hour

4 Hour

8 Hour

12 Hour

18 Hour

20 Hour

23 Hour

And ticking up on the Daily
Comment: MACD Histogram is curving up and the Elliott Wave Oscillator has been signaling towards this trend since the previous breakout at 7300...

Following the Oscillator and movement from the previous breakout I consider this (12 Hour chart above) to be what we will see...

This 18 Hour Chart shows how tight this wedge has become prior to this coming breakout...

And in this Daily...

It has long been my position that the major correction from all time high in December ended at 5800, and I have reiterated this countless times in this post and in my previous post of BTC to 20k... I believe that we will have another breakout here, now, and continue to climb higher from here.

More to come...Happy Trading.
Comment: -----------------------------UPDATE 3/28/18 1:45 PM EST ---------------------
4 Hour
Overnight BTC pushed up to 8088, confirming my projection of a breakout beginning to appear at the 0.764 level, before retracing back to a local low of 7727.76...

24 Hour
...at the 0.764 Retracement level and above the trend line (green line) anchored at the lows of 5873 and 7310...

1439 Min (1 Day minus 1 Minute)
The chart above shows that there is Bulliah Divergence in the local area on the 1439 Minute chart...

On the 4Hour chart above we can see that BTC is forming a local rounded bottom potential reversal...and a more detailed look may confirm this on a larger scale:

...This 4Hour chart shows a rounding up of the RSI, MACD, and Elliot Wave Oscillator, along with Bullish Divergence (green lines) leading up to the local price...

A closer look at the RSI, MACD, and Elliot Wave Oscillator in the 4Hour chart mentioned previous to this.

The following series of charts shows that BTC double bottomed (yellow arrows) on the lower Bollinger Band, leading up to the previous breakout at 7310 and to the current price of BTC (blue arrows)...

on the 8 Hour

...to the 23 Hour...

...up to the 1439 Minute chart...

...and yet to appear on the Daily.

The Daily chart (above) sows today's candle as an Inverted Hammer (potential reversal at the bottom of a trend) showing strong support at the this level.
Comment: A Daily close above 7727.76 will confirm the validity of the trend beginning at 5873 and 7310, as well as the year long trend dating back to July of 2017.
Comment: ...and the trend line from April 15, 2017 to 5873.
Comment: A Daily close above 7762 maintains the trend line.

Comments

And a genius he is!!!!! There's the breakout!!!! Kudo's Junior!!!!!!!!
+3 Reply
Junior.... this is an amazing analysis. Right now amongst the panic, you are seeing things clearly like no one else is!!!!
They will look back on this post and call you a genius.
+3 Reply
LLCoolRS LLCoolRS
@LLCoolRS,
I'm watching the bull flag on the 3 minute right now....trying to break out..... COMMON BTC!!! YOU CAN DO IT!!!!!!
+1 Reply
lol the last bullflags collection is amazing. Love your work Junior. Much appreciated.
+2 Reply
Lets do this BTC!
+2 Reply
Awesome work Junior.... I'm glad to see you react quickly when the analysis does not go to plan!
Time analysis has always been our Achilles heel, especially when doing analysis on larger scales and timeframes. We know BTC will resume the bull, we just don't know precisely when the final dips will end.
+2 Reply
@LLCoolRS, thank you LL
Reply
As always it is a pleasure reading your analysis. Very detailed, concise, and easy to follow. Wish I had half of your skill. Keep up the great work man. I'm a follower from CWN, to your twitter and tradingview profiles. Any suggestions on some reading that has helped you advance your analytical skills, i.e. books, articles, youtube videos? Thanks.
+2 Reply
@quava, thank you, very much, I appreciate that. As I am sure you know, I am still very new at this and I try to look at things as simply as possible, but I have lost the forest for the trees lately. You can send me a direct message at anytime and I would be happy to help.
Reply
LLCoolRS BTCookieMonster
@BTCookieMonster,
Hi Junior, I'd like to pass along some constructive criticism, and I hope you'll give it some thought! I know how you feel about flip flopping and how you present you ideas without compromise.. this definitely makes you unique in the crypto analyst space. But I would suggest that privately you chart alternate scenarios (e.g. bearish to a bullish view) just to keep yourself ready, and if anything strengthen your position. If you remember yesterday, I was the one talking in Youtube chat about a bearish scenario with the 8700 pivot point. I wanted the bull, but was ready for the bear. I'm not saying you should change how you present your ideas publicly, keep them uncompromised... but chart and think about alternate scenarios privately for your own thoughts. Thanks for all your hard work, it is much appreciated.
+1 Reply
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