In this idea, I identify what I call the 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross. They are the the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA. - With 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, this is statistically significant in the macro economic trend of Bitcoin and currently has a with 100% success rate. a. "Hidden Death Cross" consistently delivers a significant market contraction b. "True Golden Cross" consistently delivers a significant market expansion
This trend displays significant statistical probability, and while I propose we cannot expect future cycles to repeat past results, we can assume there is a high likely hood of the trend repeating in some form and used past results as guidelines for future performance.
Weekly "Hidden Death Cross" Data
5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: ....... 6. ....................... Success Rate: 100% Failure Rate: 0% Average Contraction: -64% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min -57% / Max -71%
BTC Weekly "True Golden Cross" Data
4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...................... Success Rate: 100% Failure Rate: 0% Average Expansion: +6'198% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min - / Max 15'000%
Comparison wit the famous Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Trend
BTC Daily "Death Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 7 Death Cross (DC); 1. 10-Apr-2014: +56% 2. 07-Sep-2014: -69% 3. 15-Sep-2015: +23% 4. 04-Apr-2018: -60% 5. 22-Oct-2019: -29%% 6. 26-Mar-2020: +50% 7. 23-Jun-2021: -22% 8. ....................... Success Rate: 57% Failure Rate: 43% Average Contraction: -50% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min -20% / Max -70%
BTC Daily "Golden Cross" Data
BTC Daily: 5 Golden Cross (DC); 1. 08-Apr-2012: +24'169% 2. 13-July-2014: -23% 3. 21-July-2015: -30% 4. 02-Nov-2015: +6722% 5. 25-Apr-2019: +163% 6. 17-Feb-2020: -62% 7. 23-May-2020: +643% 8. 15-Sep-2021: ....... 9. ........................ Success Rate: 57% Failure Rate: 43% Average Expansion: +7'924% 2 Standard Deviations Range (99% Confidence): Min - / Max 21'000%
Additional Hidden Trend
Daily Death Cross & Golden Cross Triplets.
In addition to the standard crosses, we can identify a pattern of 3 crosses together;
1. Daily Death Cross, Golden Cross, Death Cross: This results in a bear market with a 100% success rate
2. Golden Cross, Death Cross, Golden Cross: This results in a bull market with 100% success rate
I will be posting on these trends more, since they are statistically significant and I believe will continue to display similar results, regardless of the FOMO or FUD that may be happening at the time.
@Yemala, I have to ask.
I always keep on any of my charts a contrarian pattern / play.
I watched this video a couple of times, thinking about what can invalidate the triplets?
what is your opinion?
Yemala
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@ROI_Crypto those triplets are really interesting right!?
And I am totally with you, always good to have a contrarian play, know how to trade the market regardless of the eventual direction.
I’m really feeling that those triplets are significant, we don’t have much reference data, just 4 triplet cycles completed and now a 5th in mid cycle. I would guess that we see it play out.. I mean the next cross has to be a “death cross” which would complete the triplet.. but how it plays out I’m not sure, it could be invalidated by just sideways movement, or some incredible FOMO and news, or buying, “institutional investment” is the mega bull sentiment at the moment as well as having the lowest levels of BTC on exchanges.
Then it comes down to how much we weight importance of PA reflecting best price / information and that TA and trend identification is better that fundamental analysis..
Someone else I spoke to highlighted, that’s because a lot is tied up in defi / staking while people are making a killing from alts.. at any point though those alts can be liquidated into fiat since (regardless of what people believe) dollar is still king.
Since there is so much news to read and digest with regards to fundamentals, and who knows what is truthful or misleading, I tend to favor PA and TA, since you can be confident that this is empirical data and test your strategy against it confidently 😃
d-MR96nBa
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Excellent depthy analysis.
You're luxurious with time, we are kin.
Yemala
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@d-MidnightRunner, appreciate it! I see you also are concerned with the macro cycles and interdependencies between markets :)
d-MR96nBa
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@Yemala, Absolutely one must take a wholistic approach to markets.
If you love the game, the knowledge accumulation comes naturally.
I'm also a large proponent of getting a market sense by putting a trade on.
Trade FX, Indices, Commodities, Bonds, Shares & Crypto lol
A man for all markets.
Yemala
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@d-MidnightRunner, haha awesome, for sure we share the same passion, there’s something about charting that is so therapeutic.. could do with more time to read all the books I have though lol
d-MR96nBa
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@Yemala, Audible or similar my man.
The sense of control over the chaos in my intuition.
Embracing chaos and change as certainties of life is 🔑
ClearOpenDoor
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Can we have a delayed crash after this death cross where we actually move higher first before falling? Would that be more in line with a measured move from higher up which still leaves us above 20k?