To Catch a Falling Knife Episode 3 Revenge of the BTC - Part 3

This is a continuation of Part 2 which can be seen here:

We just retested the upper wedge and it failed to break it down, which gave us this quick short opportunity.

I have adjusted the magnitude and time frames of the waves to reflect the latest price data.

Let us wait and see if BTC falls to the bottom of the wedge (which I am really hoping for). This will give us a nice double bottom entry from Feb low. Given the current information (failed retest of the upper trendline), this is the likely scenario I'm going with.

OR will bitch shoot up from some unexpected buying.

Let's sit down with our popcorn and watch the story...

Comment:

Alright BTC reversed and is knocking back on the upper trend line.

I did not expect such a strong reversal given that setup, but the market is always right.There has been volatility contraction in BTC as well it looks like it's preparing for a big move.

The plan has no changed none-the less.

The stop buy order is still active at7105.
If we break this upper trend line, it will confirm the bulls are in control and we buy.
If it goes down from here, we look for a lower entry.

trade with care

Comment:

Enough time has passed by at these price levels and it looks like we are going above the trend line.

I will set up for a breakout of this triangle.

set buy stop to 7080

Comment:

Had a question about targets prices if we get in the trade.

Below are the key possible reversal areas. We will be aiming to take partial profits on targets 1 and 2.

Because it's a long term trend line, I'm going to give it more room to move.
Part of the reason I do not prefer breakout plays is because of the larger room you need to give for stop loss. But that's what this play calls for. So size your position accordingly so that you're not risking more than 2% of your total account.

Comment:

All that buildup for this low volume ailed rally. I hope the bulls have more than this.

www.tradingview.com/chart/4NgqC28q/

Comment:

That breakout was weak, typically daily chart trend breaks are powerful.
Bitcoin has been acting irregular for the past couple of days.

The trade is active, there may be more accumulation during the breakout before we go up. The key point here is our stops are set and we have to let the trade do its thing.

Comment:

Nothing like waking up in the morning to see a strong drop.

The price is trying to go back in the wedge. Its right on the line right now. If this goes inside then we exit the trade like planned.

Comment:

Set stop at 6650 for now.
If this does not recover in a few hours I will close the position.

Retests are normal, but this breakout was weak... a very weak breakout and a strong retest on the down side... the price action does not agree with the setup.

Sometimes you need to call it quits if the market action is not what you expect.

Trade closed: stop reached