Bitcoin waking up after being repeatedly poked with a stick..

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good day Traders

As I'm sure everyone and their pet poodle knows, bitcoin had a triangle breakout a few days ago with all the volume we were looking for. If you see my previous post, I thought we would first drop to just under $3k for a dead cat bounce to $5200, however, we've averted the weekly EMA15 and EMA200 bearish cross for now. The market was impatient and started the wave up without that drop and it seems we could be in the midst of a mid term change in trend already (just a pause in downtrend, as opposed to the end of the downtrend).

Since we never had that drop , I think we could possibly reach an even higher fomo extension target than the $5200 I originally had in mind. During a strong trend reversal, it's not uncommon to have a 261.8 - 461.8 fib extension of the first breakout impulse wave.

We have a number of bullish signals and patterns for a mid term trend change:

  • Bullish crossover EMA10 and SMA100 about to take place
    Bullish crossover EMA10 and EMA50 complete (backtest to see how significant these crosses are on the daily chart )
    Price closed above SMA100, EMA10 and EMA50 on the daily
    Potential Inverse H&S - currently printing the right shoulder
    Breakout from symmetrical triangle (reversal scenario as opposed to the usual continuation pattern)

I suspect we'll now have a 38.2-68.1 fib retracement of the recent breakout impulse). These impulse waves have been so strong that we haven't had much pullback since the start of Feb. We should find support at our daily SMA100, and start moving towards our IHS neckline for a potential breakout. The breakout will need strong increasing volume to break through major trendline resistance from our ATH .

First TP is $4300/$4400 which is a 161.8 fib extension of the recent breakout impulse, and our daily SMA128 resistance, which has held as significant S/R in the past for bitcoin ). This area has held as strong resistance since 28 November 2018, so we should have a better idea if this is in fact a change in trend once we reach those levels and assess the volume profile .

If $4300/$4400 doesn't provide much resistance and we blast through with ease with increasing volume , then safe to say we're probably heading up, with a change in trend direction to fill those outstanding liquidity gaps in the $4- 5ks.

Second TP is 261.8 fib extension target of $4760 - $4880 which is also the target for the inverse H&S .

Third TP is the minimum target for the symmetrical triangle breakout, our daily SMA200 resistance and a 361.8 fib extension target of $5230/$5350.

Any move above our daily SMA200, I expect to be a short-lived extension. That $6k resistance is not going to be an easy nut to crack, after serving as impenetrable support for almost a year and I suspect if we do fomo that high, we'll probably have a 461.8 fib bull trap extension limit of $5700-$5800, before resuming the downtrend from there, potentially to new lows.

Good luck and happy trading!

Previous chart:

"Already bottomed" view (unlikely):

Comment: Bitcoin retraced perfectly with a 50 fib retracement from our $4190 swing high, now just need SMA100 to hold as support, and will be watching volume and the $4k resistance when we get back there.
Trade closed: target reached: Target reached and I've closed my long positions
Nice chart and analysis, man, and I'm with ya!
+1 Reply
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