Hi everyone, so here I have modeled BTC's price according to a very similar dump in 2017 where the price fell 28% from Nov 9th to Nov 11th and then the subsequent move in the days and weeks after.
Imho, this will be the most likely path forward. The H&S that everyone is afraid of will not play out and instead BTC's price will trend sideway for the next 2 days and then it will break above the 21 EMA (12H candle) on the 5th day from the moment we closed below the 21 EMA (12H candle) which is where I have the first black vertical line - should be Jan 15th (not 16th) - the moment we surpass the 21 EMA (12H).
From Jan 15th, we will rise higher and higher (likely no red 12H candles) until we reach a new ATH at 44.2k by Jan 20th (first green horizontal line).
From this new ATH, BTC will trend sideways for 4 days and then rise precipitously (37%) to the new ATH once again to 61k by Jan 28th.
Once we reach 61k on Jan 28th, we could see a 20-25% correction at month end. Thanks and hope you enjoyed this lesson in history. Please leave a like and follow.
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So far so good guys, BTC is trending sideways exactly as predicted for now - right under the 21 EMA allowing it to flatten before surpassing it by Jan 15th.
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And just to add, think how stupid it is for BTC to drop to 20k like many mainstream analysts are calling for... a 50% drop from the ATH would completely invalidate this entire bull market .... it's a really lazy and idiotic call in my view. It has less than 0.1% chance of occurring yet you 80% of the analysts are parroting it!
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Also, we are in early premium ALT season already ... look at how DOT is performing relative to BTC over the last 36 hours. There is a lot of money accumulating DOT as it's showing massive strength versus BTC and ETH and we will likely see DOT at or near $17 during BTC's next run to 44k and by the time BTC is 61k DOT could be mid-20s
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Just as predicted - we are still currently trending just under the 12H Candle 21 EMA which is currently (9:24 AM Eastern NYC Time) $35,170
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FYI ... look at DOT ... it just released its first parachain and will continue to outperform the rest of the market... it's the most premium alt one can own at the current moment:
Very bullish undercurrents in BTC as price is now rising above the 21 EMA (12H candle) which sits at $35,281 as of 3:00 PM Eastern NYC time
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I may be wrong and this may be like the 2013 bull run and we could end up overshooting both of my price targets!
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And just like that... BTC went up and is starting trend sideways again as I predicted... it's following the shape of my projection, maybe not to a direct T but nearly identical in pattern.
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And like that we are coming back to the 12H 21 EMA folks... we got a little ahead of ourselves according to my chart but no need to panic, we should start to stabilize then rise into weekend heading into Jan 20
So i guess if this is true BTC will probably outperform ETH for now?
ich1baN
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@GandalfTheBitcoinWizard, thanks Gandalf for the donation! There's a good chance that BTC will outperform ETH and ETH will continue to move at 75% of BTC's gains for now UNTIL ETH surpasses its ATH - only then will ETH start to either mirror or outperform BTC in my view... of course ETH is on the verge of surpassing the ATH of $1,432 in the next few days or 2 weeks.
harisonhbn9718
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Hmm, very nice your idea and yes, it's similar as my idea on Bitcoin toward the 60k soon!!! Go ahead!!!
ich1baN
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@harisonhbn9718, thanks Harison! Will be following you posts too - see you at 60k!! :)
Jimbo206
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I'm in on the dip I really hope it goes back up
ich1baN
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@Jimbo206, I think it will be a well placed buy and you'll be happy you did so within 2 days
lemonsqueezy
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What are your thoughts or projections on where btc will top out this year?
ich1baN
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@lemonsqueezy, Hey lemon, thanks for the question - that is hard to answer at the current moment since we're early in the cycle but an early estimate could be as high as $1 million - but I lean towards $270-300k. However, a pretty well known forecaster DavinciJ15 has BTC going above the $1 million mark this year and he's been highly accurate in the past so I have to respect his call.
Thematically, from a market structure view - we are very early in the cycle and already at 40k which to me is very bullish that we will see highs that no one thought possible considering retail is still barely in this and pension funds and most institutions have yet to get in. Also, the event that could change my price target estimate from 300k to 1M would be when a reputable Central Bank starts buying BTC as a reserve asset like they buy gold. This would have to be a bank like the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada, Australia, or US. If/when that occurs, then yes, we will easily see BTC at $1 million by the end of this year.
lemonsqueezy
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@ich1baN, Thanks for the response, I'm leaning on 100-150k based on nothing but my gut ;) I see the dizzy heights of 1m potentially on the next cycle. But interesting thoughts
ich1baN
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@lemonsqueezy, the other interesting thought is that in this market cycle Bitcoin may become so mainstream that we don't have 70-90% dumps anymore ... it's a very fluid idea but it has a lot of plausibility ostensibly considering many institutions will have to buy bitcoin if you understand the Michael Saylor theory - if you don't watch as many vids on youtube from him now. I definitely would not entertain a 100% exit from crypto this go around. I'd have at least a few bitcoin in the pocket without ever selling them.