Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading today on the fourth straight red 1D candle and even though the pull-back is insignificant so far, there is a certain pattern on the 3D time-frame that is worrying.
As you see, the 3D RSI hit last week the Lower Highs trend-line that started on January 07 2021 and defined this whole Bear Cycle. This week, we see that 3D RSI turning lower as the test turned out to be a rejection. This has also happened on March 26 2022 and November 06 2021, which marked the last two Highs of the market.
Based also on the 3D MACD, which has been steadily rising since June 30, this pattern resembles the bottom sequence and subsequent first rise of the recovery phase during the previous Bear Cycle of 2019. As shown, the 3D RSI had a rejection exactly on the same level as today's one, while the 3D MACD was rising. As with today, the rejection came before hitting the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) and took place on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (counting from the top of the last collapse, essentially the 3D Death Cross).
The resulting pull-back found Support on the Higher Lows trend-line and the 0.236 Fibonacci level and after some more consolidation both the RSI Lower Highs and the 3D MA50 broke and a very strong rally took place. Now, the fundamentals behind that rally were different and a 3D MA50 break-out doesn't have to necessarily follow 2019 into such a strong rally. But still it will be evidence of the new Bull Cycle.
If you are a short-term trader though, that 3D RSI rejection tells you to proceed to the next days with caution and look for that more confident lower buy. Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
It looks amazingly similar to the previous death cross in 2018 and the recovery looks similar too. Good catch! As long as we stay above the high lows that you've drawn, we should be ok. If we have to wait for the price to get above the 3D MA50 (blue line) before we rally like we did in 2019, then we could be down here for quite a while.
feelin short term bearish, after the elections im focusing on investing and long term bull
Solldy
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Oh, man, that's a pretty brave idea, but I don't think it's a good idea. There are too many conflicting arguments right now. Although maybe that will change soon...
rahimtrader88
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🙏👑
Hangun
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It ended in November 2021. It's already time. I knew it was 12K until December 2022, but it was canceled, and it is time to start little by little from August. Four months have been deleted.
nimbosa
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anytime between October 10 and November 19 for confirmation, lots of work and loading up to do until then!
mastershark
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👍👍👍
SwallowPremium
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Seems BTC has taken the long route indeed but will it be that high without corrections? thanks for the post