CRInvestor

4hr BTC Finex - Concentrating one's efforts on reliable setups

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Hello all,
Today's chart is about what I would like to see myself do more of rather then any current setup. After playing this game for more than 20 years I have come to the simple understanding that markets are not always a buy or sell and that many times for us traders, we are best just to sit and wait. I have also come to understand that exercising that discipline can often leave one sitting on the sidelines for months at a time - a good argument for not handcuffing oneself to trading any one particular market/product. Today's chart is Bitcoin's 2014 performance (so far) in one snap shot. The yellow box represents in my opinion a 'text book' long entry window with what I would consider a very high probability of success. Using simple targets (in this case the 50% rule) one can see a realistic profit objective was hit that was well above 2:1 reward to risk. Ironically, one could book this one trade for the entire year (43.5%) and be more than content knowing you have beaten more than 95% of all fund manager returns since records have been kept - 1 trade! Unfortunately, what this also means is that the 'easy' long trade on BTC for 2014 has come and gone. It's profit objectives have been hit and we must now go back to the sidelines (if you have sold all) and wait again. It is impossible to tell when a similar setup (to what we saw through May) will come again but as you have all come to expect, I'll be sitting here patiently at my post waiting....

Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...

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Maybe it's a stupid question, but why did you pick 1k high as the top (for the left retracement zone), and not the 1180, 830, or even 730?
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ytd....was Jan peak
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