An update on that post i did on 30 Jan, where i tried to show some objectivity on the current stage of the market. If you want to know more about it, read the previous analysis about this. As you can see, i have drawn yellow circles on what i think were Bitcoin currently is. Just to give a picture of what could happen the coming period. It's still not clear if this is just an ABC correction or an impulse wave up to start a new trend. A lot will depend on the coming week i think keeping an eye out for volume and conviction.
The 3700/750 is still a big level to break, we can compare it with the 3650 (bitfinex) back in Dec. If that zone breaks with good volume again, chances will be much bigger for a continuation of the rally. But we have to see it break soon, would be best if it happens on Monday already. So far Bitcoin is holding it's levels above 3600, alts look very stable as well, so it's looking all very good at this point.
If we look at the others, none of them crossed the 3450/80 level/zone Bitcoin has now. In other words, this whole picture will fail if that level breaks again. Markets needs to keep it above that level, but preferably even above 3570/50
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Current analysis:
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I have put the Dec rally bull flag next the this one, we can see that this one looks more stable, but i am not sure yet if that is a good sign. When looking at the volume picture, we can see a difference. But that is also because this rally was 300 points and Dec 200 points. In this rally the short squeeze part was bigger than in Dec. But the volume now inside the flag looks much lower compared to Dec, but it could also be because it's weekend. Also giving the explanation to why this bull flag is bigger in time as well.
Bulls need to show a bit more conviction here, we need to see them being able to touch the 3650/60 again soon. On the right we can see another channel inside of the flag, if the bulls want to show themselves, they should break this channel on the upside.
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Good, we made that push up (as i showed in the ETH analysis as well). Based on the Dec rally, we could be in the yellow circle now. Meaning it could drop a bit again, but has to stay above the 3620/3600 from now on.
So this whole rally is looking good and healthy again so far
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That move came out of nowhere, i would be careful now, doesnt look like a Bart, but starting to look like they are trying to make one here. I have seen many moves with Bitcoin, but this one was a 100% intentional dump, trying to crash the price.
I could see a spoofing on the sell side on Bitmex. But they did not work at all, so could be that it was a desperate attempt to stop the rally that was about to happen. This is a coin toss at the moment, just be careful now. If the bull can hold the 3600ish, would be a good sign.
ETH took a very big hit on Bitmex, from 125 to 115, i did not see if ETH ot BTC got dumped first. If it was ETH, could be that their goal is already reached
Don’t you think this is a much different market than it was then in terms of consumer confidence? Also what was the volume traded during those other examples compared to btc now?
@RandomGuyTalkin, Not only that the smaller timeframe that botje and many like to use for their TA is a ruse. Exchanges make lots of money on fees when people keep closing and opening positions. This is why smaller timeframe is bullshit to try to read. How does TA reading smaller timeframe work if there so many variables/whales/exchanges involved? Random pumps up and down to make people chase and keep paying those fees. This is done into the real boss comes into the picture. And that boss is saying down to 1900s in March.
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@xfallensaintx, Lower time frame is noise, true, but trust me, in no way it's bullshit. Just look back in my history and you will find a lot of proof that it can be useful, i even posted a few days ago in my channel, the trial i did for 2 weeks, those were all low time frame trades. It is very difficult though, you have to know what to look for. I have some many repeating patterns, that give huge clues for lows and highs, some even for long term. But you can't find these in the textbooks, so maybe that's why you think it's nonsense. The biggest danger of zooming in though, is loosing sight of the bigger picture. If the current rally fails to break the 3700 this week, than yes, we could crash big time
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@RandomGuyTalkin, I don't understand the first part, you mean compared to a year ago during the peak of hype? But then i still don't understand it, or do you simply mean there is no way that this market can even make a correction up to 4000/5000?
You can check the volume yourself if you want, i don't think it's that meaningful in this example
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@botje11, What I'm saying is that traders nowadays are a lot more
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@RandomGuyTalkin, ((Disregard that premature send^^.) What I'm saying is that traders nowadays are a lot more short term approached than compared to older rallies. I feel that, as we've been seeing, the slightest drop in price bringing in a wave of sellers. In addition to that, if you zoom out a bit you see that all we did was print a lower high, does that concern you?
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@RandomGuyTalkin, Of course the lower high is there, just like at the 6k zone, same thing. But it's very simple, if this rally succeeds, we could see a bigger correction before we drop again. If the 3700 holds, than more likely to drop again
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@RandomGuyTalkin, That was getting obvious a year ago, i think what your trying to say here (in general), is what i warned about a year ago, right, or?
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Above 10k is when bitcoin is bullish.
the major question to be asked if why did bitcoin went to almost 20k ?
Because of fomo, not technology, not satoshi or whatever his name is
but pure fomo.
For the same event to happen again
Bitcoin need to pass the 10k
10k.. almost 20k
will take us to 15k
15k almost 20k
will take us to 20k and beyond..