Hello, two of the previous trendlines (black) were broken. Now we have two possible trenlines (and related ascending triangle), in blue. One is already broken to the downside so , should the today close be there, the traingle would be invalidated. The second blue line seems to perfectly act as a support, giving us some chances of up movement.
In the previous analysis I highlighted all the bearish factors, but it seems we are in a complex wave, very difficult to trade. No clear trend is highlighted (see the ADX of the DMI indicator, the red line) to be very very low, meaning no clear direction. The triangle signal that we have higher lows, so evidence, albeit skewed to bearish is not clear enough. (anyway we know what happens when many people think the sameway on BTC: it goes in the opposite direction). All that being said, my suggestion is to keep yourself from trading this range (9,000-10,000) and wait for a clear breakout on either side. Trading is all about maximizing probabilities, not catching the perfect max or the min of a trend. So I will wait for a clear sign to enter either sides.
Thanks. I agree with you and staying out at the moment. Do't forget the 1bn option expiration next Friday (which is kind of scary). Also, IMO we are on a 4 Elliot Wave which is the most dangerous part (the "Crocodile") and can be very tricky with several fake break outs.
edutradinguru
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@GoodFellowToo, thanks for the comment! Indeed, this wave is difficult to trade. Options are the best way totake a position on breakouts in this moment.
Would be interesting to know at which strike the major part of that billion is positioned. Cause 1bn is the of total notional, if for example I have a call 20,000 or a put 3,000 is still considered 10,000$ notional even if actually they are 2 worthless options. But yes, options market is increasing a lot, good sign for the market maturation
GoodFellowToo
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@edutradinguru, I'd like to dm you on Telegram (Bitcoin Options & Option Trading) but I can't. Can you look at it? (Gato Negro)
alienteck
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I agree that if you are not experienced to not trade.. BTC is a tough nut to crack..
edutradinguru
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@alienteck, yes sir, also because we are in a complex correction, not a usual corrective wave. It is possible to trade with options though
alienteck
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Its not a correction but a consolidation.. Which is why longs premium is going down while shorts premium is going up.. It can do this for months up and down.. but not enough to make money with options unless you get lucky.. You can make 50-100 bucks trading it.. after paying commission thats 5 bucks pure profit.. but heck 2 trades can buy a cup of coffee..
edutradinguru
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@alienteck, Options to trade a breakout I mean, not to trade within the range. No liquidations, No scam wicks can affect you position. I trade bigger movements I do not do small scalp that is why in the 9,000-10,000 range I am out.