So the market turned to bearish mode again, for the short term at least. Since i went short at 9970 i said we could have seen the/a top for now. During that high i said that i saw some signals that indicated a big chance that we were near a high. Wanted to build up a big short position up to 10.200, but price never got there so i did not get the chance to do so. Around the highs i said there was a big chance we could make another drop again, but because i don't like to make big predictions i kept saying that as long as we stay above the 8700 that we have to assume we are still in an uptrend! First sign of weakness would be a break of 9300 and the last few days a said that if the 8900/9000 that i would become quite sure that the 8700 would break as well and that we will probably go towards the low 8K's again.
Yesterday around the 9300/9400 things got a bit confusing, because i could see sell pressure but bulls just kept on pushing and price stayed quite stable around the highs. So it looked like an upwards triangle but it was a bearish pattern. Funny thing is, many people here on TV were expecting prices around 9500/9600, i would almost assume like the whales playing this market were aware of that so they decided to push it down before the little guy was able to close their position or even to go short.
Alts are taking big hits again, many have dropped below their support levels indicating we will probably see lower prices there as well the coming week. But who knows, maybe the Conference will push prices higher :) LOL. That was sarcasm for the ones who are not aware how i think about those fairy tales/lies that have been spread in to the crypto world like a virus. Or the Wall street bonus day in January that would push the market up again, think we had the biggest crash of that month that day. Or stories like Chinese new year was the cause of the drop in that week. For the ones who want a reality check, these is false information being spread in to the market by certain people to make you buy or to give you another explanation of the drops we saw instead of reality. Best one of all, was blaming the Mt. Gox trustee for crashing the market the past half year. I said it back than, when the first story about this popped up, saying it again, THIS IS MISLEADING INFORMATION. The same happens in the stock market, but since there are no rules in the crypto world, things are much more extreme. I just thought to warn you guys about this, forget about all the misleading info, just trust your own view of the market and only look at reliable information.
From the looks of it, we will go up towards the 9000 again from here before we make another big drop towards the 8100. The market is very weak at the moment, so i am not sure if that move up will happen, but the 8700 is a very big support level. It would be extremely weak if that support level breaks without a fight. What i have been saying for quite some time now, above 8700 is bull market (med term) and at 8000 it's 50/50 for me. So i think around that level it will be very important what the price will do, because it will probably decide if we return to the big bear market again or just continue this bull run we had the past month.
I have closed my short position at 8710 just now since we are at an important support level now.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)
My previous analysis
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It's so weak again. still think we will see a squeeze up, but it's just so weak. The bullish wedge got (almost)turned into a bearish triangle, could also be a bigger bullish wedge. If we drop below 8650/8600 i will probably open my short position again, but i still assume (for now) that me move upwards and make a correction first
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This is really frustrating guys, the ones who are questioning my reliability. I understand because of all the things going on in Crypto and here on TV. So i will take an effort to show you. Scroll to the updates of May 5, there you can see it for your self.
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This should be it, should be seeing a squeeze now
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It's almost dropping too far. If it does, we could see a big spike to 8200. Usually we see a squeeze up.
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So it was a descending triangle and not a wedge. Looking back, the first wedge should have done it's job it seems. Target seems to be reached already, but this market turned to crap again. I am seeing some big buyers trying to catch the fall, but i saw them 100/150 points higher as well. So far they didn't stop it. So can't really tell yet what will happen next
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Still no bounce, this is looking very bad
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Bulls need to push it above 8600 very soon otherwise we could just keep on dropping towards he 8100/8200 target
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First small step, but it's still a bear flag. Needs to stay above those green area's, best case the higher one, to be able to form a small double bottom
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Bitcoin shows no signs of life yet, some alts are bouncing much better. Like BCH here, inverse H&S and broke out already as well
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First big resistance area now
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Bulls making another attempt?
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Assuming this channel has weight, the resistance it's facing now is quite heavy. Bulls need to keep this momentum going now
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This channel has no value, still inside a bear flag it seems. Still very weak, each attempt to break up fails, so far
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Let's see if the bulls can come up with something this time
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Keep playing the same old song, looks like a straight shot towards that 8100ish target from the primary chart, H&S target and bear flag target. Funny to see how this unbreakable, mega bullish market can turn into crap so quickly and easily. Without any real news, expect the possible fraud going on at that exchange? But that's nothing new, think everyone already knew frauduleus things are going on in crypto world, at the exchanges. Or did everyone already forget like i mentioned in my previous analysis off May 5th. Where i said that only good news gets published lately and the whole world already forget about the bad things. Where i even say something about exchanges being shady. Not to show you how right i am, no it's to show you how emotional this market is. AND to show you how mean and orchestrated this crypto world is IMHO. We are still above the 8000, so no real problem yet, but if it would break and if we drop to the 6K's again, i do hope everyone wakes up and starts to realize how this market actually works.
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Just keeps on dropping, very stable and almost even controlled (like many of the pumps we have seen as well). So probably unless we see a 200/300 price jump, we probably just keep on dropping like this.
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If it could get above 8400ish, we start to think that we might see some recovery today. Otherwise we have to assume it just keeps on following this same pattern
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Bulls are alive again, no their not. These are probably the ones who kept distributing at 9350 2 days ago and now just filling their pockets again because they take profit and buying it back. But this could still be the start for a wave up. At least there is a start now :)
I think @botje11 controls the market. Like if you agree.
mvndekant
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@ramicko, He is Bogdanoff, I assume
Robbanbiff
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We will have red dildos x 2 or 3 before monday.. This aint the normal "ohh bitcoin i will buy now person 9:45 UTC and pumps it 200 dollars..
They take us down 200 dollar 15 min they take it up easy too dont forget!
Wait for real confirmation if you want to make safe trades..
This isnt the bottom.. Maybe we will have a small saturday happy bullrun with BTC teasing us as it goes towards 8700 but thats it.. I still believe strong that we will go under 8k before monday, but if I see clear confirmation I will sure enter a trade.. But enter now is just gambling
mula313
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@botje11 Don’t you think 7810 is where we have the best support? If that breaks, I believe we are gonna see rapid selling which will lead to bearish sentiment and FUD. Funny how all of this happens right before the fact that the Summit is coming up on the 14th. Manupilation at its finest.
kitkat16
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this is the final shakeout before we head towards 14/15K IMO for a larger B wave. In the short term We might see another leg down as David points out-which would be the C leg of what is currently an ABC. from 9800 to 7500 ish.
Then the larger scale B leg up beings to 15/16/17k, before another final C dip down to 6/7/8k after July.
Then we accumulate before an enormous xmas and possible 50k bitcoin.
Dcurtis1991
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I feel like this is just orchestrated to bring down the Daily RSI low enough so that we can bulldoze right through the 11500-12000 resistance this time without getting into overbought territory, thoughts?
I'm just gonna HODL. Even if we hit 6k will eventually shoot back up to 20k. No sense in selling at a loss. Might buy more at the bottom tho :p
Shorty01
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@peakindicator, that's what i decided to do...instead of selling and jumping back in, I'm just going to buy at the bottom
Foxhound91
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Botje11 Don't let haters or cheaters who copy your work put you down. We all know here that you are the best TA guy (that's why you are copied by the way :) ) your analysis counts for 80% of my decisions now which got a success rate increase from 40% to 95%. So please keep the good work and believe me, all what you are doing for us now will come back to you multiplied. Respect man !