Bitcoin to $3600,1D SMA50 or channel resistance before bearish

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good day Traders

Our $3470/$3500 support has been holding strong. Although we keep getting rejected by the $3550/$3600 resistance, we now have bullish divergence on the 2H MFI so still expecting a move to the upside. Our 1D SMA50 is going to be strong resistance yet again, this time around $3670 but we first need to get above $3600. The way I see, we have 4 scenarios playing out with regards to this retracement after our drop from $4100.

4 Scenarios:

1) Unable to close above $3660/$3720

If we are unable to break through the $3660/$3720 resistance with higher than a 38.2 fib retracement of the larger move from $4100, then I suspect we'll be retesting our $3470/$3500 support yet again, as well as our weekly SMA200 support, which would then confirm support of the large blue channel if we do then find support above our weekly SMA200.

This would also be a 61.8 fib retracement of the smaller drop from $3776 (1D SMA50) with a 161.8 fib extension target of $3280 which also coincides with our weekly SMA200 support.

2) Unable to close above $3600

If we reach $3587 but can't even get above our $3600 resistance, this would be a 38.2 fib retracement of our recent smaller drop from $3776 and would give me a 138.2 fib extension target of $3552. Both targets are in line with our blue channel support.

3) Unable to close above $3860/$3930

If we break through our 1D SMA50 resistance, this would be in line with the ascending right-angled broadening wedge from my previous post. I think the upside will be capped at our $3860/$3930 channel resistance, unless we have enough buying volume to break the downtrend and start forming higher highs (unlikely imo ).

A move to channel resistance would also be a 61.8 fib retracement of the move from $4100 so could potentially carry enough downside momentum to break channel and weekly SMA200 support for a 161.8 fib extension to our $3k support and that will be a crucial pivot point ito market sentiment.

A move below our current ascending channel support as well as our $3470/$3500 horizontal support is bearish but the bears will officially take the reigns once we have broken through the channel support, the weekly SMA200 support and $3k. Until then we could remain range bound between $3k and $4200 so better to remain even keel until we have a break of either.

4) Close above $4200/$4240

In the unlikely scenario where we have already bottomed and we just don't know it yet, we need to keep an eye on the channel resistance and then $4200/$4240 to potentially form a higher high.

Good luck and happy trading!

Previous post:

Larger H&S potentially in play:

Comment: We had a shakeout to $3400 before bouncing back above our $3550 resistance, which all happened very quickly. I've revised the fibonacci retracement /extension targets according to our new swing low and revised channel support.

The bounce had enough momentum for a 38.2 fib retracement of the drop from $3776 so if we do start dropping from here, we may get a quick drop below our weekly SMA200 to a revised 138.2 fib extension target of $3258.

If we get above $3633, our revised 68.1 fib retracement of the drop from $3776, then our revised 168.1 fib extension target is $3170.

A move above $3672 is a 38.2 fib retracement of the larger drop from $4100 with a fib extension target of $3130.

If we manage to have a 61.8 fib retracement of the larger drop from $4100 to get above $3840, our revised 168.1 fib extension target is $2962 so we might have a quick shakeout below $3k before closing above our $3k support, or we have further downside from there.


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+1 Reply
@Boon2 nice chart mate, looks like you may be on to something.
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