This is my first TA here on Tradeview. This is not a financial advice and I only put it here for my own record. I basically follow the Pitchfork and Fib circles that @Snookerer and OPTICALARTdotCOM either here (https://www.tradingview.com/u/snookerer/) or on his Youtube channel (Tradeview does not let me to share an external link yet ;) ).
I drew 4 fib circles and 2 pitchforks and all seek for the long-mid term market pattern. The biggest fib circles (the gray one) follows the overall market very well and almost every time we reached the gray line we saw a major drop/correction. The next gray line is coming up! The other 3 fib circles follow the market around 1) 15 Dec 2017 - today (green) 2) 25 July 2018 - today (red) 3) 25 Nov 2018 - today (blue). Three of those intersect around 25 June 2019. This day is also at the middle of two levels of the fourth fib circles (which I believe the line between two lines is also important). So, I expect to see a drop/correction about last week of June to the first week of July. I am not say a correction will happen 1000.00% (and no one else can), but it is very likely, specially because of the gray fib line. By that time the NVT curve also goes higher and saves more energy to get back down (more than ever).
In addition, I drew a Pitchfork that perfectly follows the market from 15 Dec 2018 to today (the pink one). The peak of this pitchfork is perfectly aligned with the intersection of 4 fib circles! This intersection is around $11k-12k. I think a $1000 is a fair range for this very wild and volatile market, isn't it??
This range of $11k-12k is also compatible with 3 other facts:
1) Based on pitchfork rules, if the market return before hitting the next level, it will break the previous level (I hope I am clear). I have another larger Pitchfork (the purple-bluish one). If the market cannot reach the next level of this Pitchfork (which is about $13k) we will break the lower level which is about $9k (that means we will go below 9k in 1-2 month after reaching higher levels like $10k-12k).
2) $11k-12k was a major support and resistance level. See the market history between 15 Jan 2018 and 6 March 2018 and slightly around 5 Dec 2017. I drew 2 blue horizontal lines at these levels.
3) It also supports what Peter Brandt (I am sure you know this genius guy) pointed in this interview (Tradeview does not let me to share an external link yet, see "Has Bitcoin's Rally Reached Maximum FOMO?" video on "Alessio Rastani" Youtube channel). He believes that we have not reach the maximum FOMO. He states that people really FOMO (more that what we had so far) when we go above 9k and specifically above 10k-11k.
SO …. I am bullish from now till we get about $11.5k (which is about the first week of July) and then I will be bearish after that.
Please share with your friends if you like it and leave comments if I can improve/correct/update this analysis.
Thanks,
I drew 4 fib circles and 2 pitchforks and all seek for the long-mid term market pattern. The biggest fib circles (the gray one) follows the overall market very well and almost every time we reached the gray line we saw a major drop/correction. The next gray line is coming up! The other 3 fib circles follow the market around 1) 15 Dec 2017 - today (green) 2) 25 July 2018 - today (red) 3) 25 Nov 2018 - today (blue). Three of those intersect around 25 June 2019. This day is also at the middle of two levels of the fourth fib circles (which I believe the line between two lines is also important). So, I expect to see a drop/correction about last week of June to the first week of July. I am not say a correction will happen 1000.00% (and no one else can), but it is very likely, specially because of the gray fib line. By that time the NVT curve also goes higher and saves more energy to get back down (more than ever).
In addition, I drew a Pitchfork that perfectly follows the market from 15 Dec 2018 to today (the pink one). The peak of this pitchfork is perfectly aligned with the intersection of 4 fib circles! This intersection is around $11k-12k. I think a $1000 is a fair range for this very wild and volatile market, isn't it??
This range of $11k-12k is also compatible with 3 other facts:
1) Based on pitchfork rules, if the market return before hitting the next level, it will break the previous level (I hope I am clear). I have another larger Pitchfork (the purple-bluish one). If the market cannot reach the next level of this Pitchfork (which is about $13k) we will break the lower level which is about $9k (that means we will go below 9k in 1-2 month after reaching higher levels like $10k-12k).
2) $11k-12k was a major support and resistance level. See the market history between 15 Jan 2018 and 6 March 2018 and slightly around 5 Dec 2017. I drew 2 blue horizontal lines at these levels.
3) It also supports what Peter Brandt (I am sure you know this genius guy) pointed in this interview (Tradeview does not let me to share an external link yet, see "Has Bitcoin's Rally Reached Maximum FOMO?" video on "Alessio Rastani" Youtube channel). He believes that we have not reach the maximum FOMO. He states that people really FOMO (more that what we had so far) when we go above 9k and specifically above 10k-11k.
SO …. I am bullish from now till we get about $11.5k (which is about the first week of July) and then I will be bearish after that.
Please share with your friends if you like it and leave comments if I can improve/correct/update this analysis.
Thanks,
