BITCOIN The accurate LMACD bottom projection

On this analysis, I am looking into Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W and 1M time-frames and how a certain LMACD level has previously revealed the bottom.


** The LMACD's Triangle **
The chart on the left is on the 1W time-frame. This isn't the first time I approach the LMACD (MACD indicator on the logarithmic scale) using this method, I've mentioned this a couple years ago, but as you see, the LMACD has been trending within a Triangle pattern. The indicator is very close to the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the Triangle. If you notice, the price bottom of BTC's Bear Cycles has always been marked before the LMACD touched the Higher Lows trend-line on every Cycle. In fact, in January 2015, it didn't touch that trend-line and before it made a Bullish Cross, the bottom was already priced in. This Cycle's LMACD final correction phase is much more similar to 2014/15 then the other Cycles.


** The LMACD bottom trend-line and the RSI Support **
Perhaps the most important indication that the LMACD can give us in long-term Cycle analysis is on the 1M time-frame, which is the chart on the right. As you see, every Cycle bottomed before the 1M LMACD hit the Higher Lows of the Triangle. That trend-line is common on every Cycle and happens to be the 0.7 Fibonacci retracement level (0.14). That was the level that the 1M candles of January 2015 and December 2018 made bottoms on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Most likely, the LMACD will touch this level by the end of this month.

Also it is interesting to point out how symmetrical the Highs and Lows are in this Triangle. Naturally the first High and Low were on the 0.0 and 1.0 Fib respectively. The ones that followed were on the 0.1 and 0.9 Fibs, while the last High was on the 0.3. If this symmetry continues, the current Low should be on the 0.7, so besides its historical importance, we have another reason to expect a bottom there.

At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the 1M RSI, which is approaching the 43.70 - 44.50 level, which has been its long-term Support Zone since its inception. Most likely by next month the latest, the RSI will make contact with that Support. Note that in January 2019, which was the last Support test, the price bottomed the month before.


** Conclusion **
This is an indicator that has never failed so far and for those who remember or have been following me here, it was the indicator that helped me project the bottom of the 2018 Cycle. Do you also think that Bitcoin will price the bottom by the end of this month? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!



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