From my own Experience this has been one of my leading Signals for short entries.
Since this is happening on HTF in this case 8 Hour candles and the Support cluster is so Dense right below current Price of around 10.3K it is taking a VERY long time to decisively break it. There are several confluences especially EMA's right below Price visible very well when using the EMA Ribbon Template and flipping through different Time frames. ALL of them below the Price from 4h-monthly
BUT
the parabola is broken. If there is no significant break of Resistance Price is going to Dump very Hard is all i can say. I have no Realistic Targets as this potential mega Dump will initiate a cascade of Bearish confirmations and will cause Bearish market structure to Paint itself inside of the Chart soon after.
Support in the 9.3-9-6s will surely hold at first, but I feel this will be temporary unless a Massive Pump taking out the Sloping resistance follows from the potential & likely Bounce.
This chart is posted on my Timeline as future Reference and Timestamp in predicting critical Reversal points based on Simple Parabolic curves.
I hope I am proven Wrong and we Fly. But either way. I am hedging short a large Position on High leverage on Bitmex. SL@ 10570 XBTUSD Chart.
Trade closed manually
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Closed my short for a small loss. It's looking Pumpy at this point. Potential IHS is in Play and bulls were Parading some Strength on a Confirmation wick. Believe we might be in for a Breakout soon. Will wait for confirmation to short on high lev first which is always a good idea generally.
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4Hr closed with a shooting star candle followed by a bearish spinning top. If the next 4h candle closes below the shooting star I will re-enter short positions. Flat for now.
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Like stated in the previous comment I entered shorts on the close below and price has dumped since. Expecting one last test of 10.3 followed by a rejection and a dump to sub 10k
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Boom as expected 10.3s tested once more. It's been super nice trading this. Took profit on shorts and re-entered on the Pamp now with entries above 10.3 - Just wish I would have scalped a long as well but was not confident enough haha can't win em all. Eitherway, we closed inside of the Channel (not showing in this chart) and I am now ready for the Price to go Sub 10k. Stops are tighter for me at this point, just above the wick of yesterdays daily close in the low 10400s. IHS still in play and might go up my Bias is confidently bearish though - sticking to the Fact of this parabolic advance breaking.
so probably should place short orders around 10.5k and wait for the hunting..
fab-e
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@jryda, I am Short with an entry at around 10335 XBT/USD and my SL is at 10570 since this is above the .618 of the last Swing.
Maybe I am wrong about this and it will not cause any decline. From Experience though, Everytime a parabola Breaks a dump follows.
jryda
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@fab-e, it just seems that would be MM's stop hunt target then in that case ;) what would your entry for going long be?
fab-e
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@jryda, Maybe you are right. But I will adjust my stoploss accordingly if we reach there and depending on the Volume and candle structure if a Breakout in-fact occurs. Since we are still traveling inside of a parallel channel I did place long Orders @10170 , 10090&10080 on 2 different accounts.
jryda
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@fab-e, GL for now though it seems that we are in a strange standoff/standstill
fab-e
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@jryda, The calm before the storm. Not enough buyers to Increase the price, only to Hold it. Liquidity is below, pushing it back up to these levels on each dip til the same dilemma repeats. Im feeling that each second we spend inside of this range decreases the probability of Price expansion. Good luck to you to brother
jryda
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@fab-e, thank you, i just wonder what size moves this is going to make on the way down and try my chances at some 25x swings, once i am at 1.0btc will adjust strategy to more conservative levels